Land Use Optimization and Simulation in the Dongjiang River Basin with a Low-Carbon Orientation
Land use is one of the main sources of carbon emissions, driven by numerous human economic and social activities. This study focuses on the Dongjiang River Basin to investigate how land use optimization can better contribute to low-carbon development. This study first optimizes the land use structur...
Saved in:
| Main Authors: | , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | zho |
| Published: |
Editorial Committee of Tropical Geography
2024-11-01
|
| Series: | Redai dili |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.rddl.com.cn/CN/10.13284/j.cnki.rddl.20230667 |
| Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
| Summary: | Land use is one of the main sources of carbon emissions, driven by numerous human economic and social activities. This study focuses on the Dongjiang River Basin to investigate how land use optimization can better contribute to low-carbon development. This study first optimizes the land use structure in the basin under two low-carbon development scenarios, maximizing carbon sinks and minimizing carbon emissions. A CA-Markov model was employed to simulate the land use spatial pattern in the river basin for 2025. We then compared and analyzed the low-carbon effect of future land use in the basin under the general development scenario and the two low-carbon scenarios, and proposed countermeasures to regulate land use in the Dongjiang River Basin under a low-carbon orientation. The results showed that (1) under the natural development scenario, the proportion of cultivated land in the Dongjiang River Basin increased from 15.66% in 2020 to 18.66%, construction land from 3.76% to 7.71%, and forest land decreased from 74.36% to 65.01%. Major changes were concentrated in the southwestern and central regions of the basin, where rapid economic development was driving a significant increase in construction and cultivated land, leading to a reduction in forest area. Additionally, in some northern and southeastern areas of the basin, forest land has been converted to grassland, cultivated land, and construction areas. (2) Under the two low-carbon development scenarios, the proportion of forest land in the Dongjiang River Basin was significantly higher than that under the natural development scenario, mainly due to changes in construction and cultivated land. Compared to the natural development scenario, the proportion of cultivated land under the two low-carbon scenarios decreased by approximately 4%-5%, construction land decreased by about 4%, and forest land increased by over 10%. It is evident that the carbon sink maximization scenario achieved a better low-carbon effect than the carbon emission minimization scenario, primarily because of the larger proportion of forest land. (3) The Dongjiang River Basin should enhance the utilization efficiency of cultivated and construction land, converting underutilized and unutilized land into areas with high carbon sequestration capacity, such as forests, or into land with lower carbon emissions to promote sustainable economic development. (4) Adding the location information of the administrative centers to the CA-Markov model can effectively improve the simulation accuracy of the model. This demonstrates that integrating key geographical factors, such as regional administrative centers, can significantly improve the accuracy of land-use simulations, offering valuable methodological insights for similar studies, particularly in predicting complex regional land-use changes. This study provides critical insights into land-use changes and their low-carbon effects under different scenarios, providing scientific evidence for policymakers in planning and policy formulation. |
|---|---|
| ISSN: | 1001-5221 |