Distributed Gaussian Granular Neural Networks Ensemble for Prediction Intervals Construction

To overcome the weakness of generic neural networks (NNs) ensemble for prediction intervals (PIs) construction, a novel Map-Reduce framework-based distributed NN ensemble consisting of several local Gaussian granular NN (GGNNs) is proposed in this study. Each local network is weighted according to i...

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Main Authors: Chunyang Sheng, Haixia Wang, Xiao Lu, Zhiguo Zhang, Wei Cui, Yuxia Li
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Wiley 2019-01-01
Series:Complexity
Online Access:http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2019/2379584
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author Chunyang Sheng
Haixia Wang
Xiao Lu
Zhiguo Zhang
Wei Cui
Yuxia Li
author_facet Chunyang Sheng
Haixia Wang
Xiao Lu
Zhiguo Zhang
Wei Cui
Yuxia Li
author_sort Chunyang Sheng
collection DOAJ
description To overcome the weakness of generic neural networks (NNs) ensemble for prediction intervals (PIs) construction, a novel Map-Reduce framework-based distributed NN ensemble consisting of several local Gaussian granular NN (GGNNs) is proposed in this study. Each local network is weighted according to its contribution to the ensemble model. The weighted coefficient is estimated by evaluating the performance of the constructed PIs from each local network. A new evaluation principle is reported with the consideration of the predicting indices. To estimate the modelling uncertainty and the data noise simultaneously, the Gaussian granular is introduced to the numeric NNs. The constructed PIs can then be calculated by the variance of output distribution of each local NN, i.e., the summation of the model uncertainty variance and the data noise variance. To verify the effectiveness of the proposed model, a series of prediction experiments, including two classical time series with additive noise and two industrial time series, are carried out here. The results indicate that the proposed distributed GGNNs ensemble exhibits a good performance for PIs construction.
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publishDate 2019-01-01
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spelling doaj-art-e83ff93ce4ae4abebda8b89ac2f9bc642025-08-20T03:21:01ZengWileyComplexity1076-27871099-05262019-01-01201910.1155/2019/23795842379584Distributed Gaussian Granular Neural Networks Ensemble for Prediction Intervals ConstructionChunyang Sheng0Haixia Wang1Xiao Lu2Zhiguo Zhang3Wei Cui4Yuxia Li5College of Electrical Engineering and Automation, Shandong University of Science and Technology, Qingdao 266590, ChinaKey Laboratory for Robot & Intelligent Technology of Shandong Province, Shandong University of Science and Technology, Qingdao 266590, ChinaKey Laboratory for Robot & Intelligent Technology of Shandong Province, Shandong University of Science and Technology, Qingdao 266590, ChinaKey Laboratory for Robot & Intelligent Technology of Shandong Province, Shandong University of Science and Technology, Qingdao 266590, ChinaCollege of Electrical Engineering and Automation, Shandong University of Science and Technology, Qingdao 266590, ChinaKey Laboratory for Robot & Intelligent Technology of Shandong Province, Shandong University of Science and Technology, Qingdao 266590, ChinaTo overcome the weakness of generic neural networks (NNs) ensemble for prediction intervals (PIs) construction, a novel Map-Reduce framework-based distributed NN ensemble consisting of several local Gaussian granular NN (GGNNs) is proposed in this study. Each local network is weighted according to its contribution to the ensemble model. The weighted coefficient is estimated by evaluating the performance of the constructed PIs from each local network. A new evaluation principle is reported with the consideration of the predicting indices. To estimate the modelling uncertainty and the data noise simultaneously, the Gaussian granular is introduced to the numeric NNs. The constructed PIs can then be calculated by the variance of output distribution of each local NN, i.e., the summation of the model uncertainty variance and the data noise variance. To verify the effectiveness of the proposed model, a series of prediction experiments, including two classical time series with additive noise and two industrial time series, are carried out here. The results indicate that the proposed distributed GGNNs ensemble exhibits a good performance for PIs construction.http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2019/2379584
spellingShingle Chunyang Sheng
Haixia Wang
Xiao Lu
Zhiguo Zhang
Wei Cui
Yuxia Li
Distributed Gaussian Granular Neural Networks Ensemble for Prediction Intervals Construction
Complexity
title Distributed Gaussian Granular Neural Networks Ensemble for Prediction Intervals Construction
title_full Distributed Gaussian Granular Neural Networks Ensemble for Prediction Intervals Construction
title_fullStr Distributed Gaussian Granular Neural Networks Ensemble for Prediction Intervals Construction
title_full_unstemmed Distributed Gaussian Granular Neural Networks Ensemble for Prediction Intervals Construction
title_short Distributed Gaussian Granular Neural Networks Ensemble for Prediction Intervals Construction
title_sort distributed gaussian granular neural networks ensemble for prediction intervals construction
url http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2019/2379584
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