MODELLING OF NATIONAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT IN THE CONTEXT OF ENSURING SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT AND HUMAN CAPITAL PROGRESS
The sustainable development of a national economy is a central concept in modern public governance, aiming to ensure a balanced interplay between economic growth, social equity, and environmental sustainability. This study seeks to develop theoretical and methodological approaches, alongside practi...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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FINTECH Alliance LLC
2025-06-01
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| Series: | Фінансово-кредитна діяльність: проблеми теорії та практики |
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| Online Access: | https://fkd.net.ua/index.php/fkd/article/view/4773 |
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| author | Олена Баула Дмитро Свинаренко Олена Лютак Сергій Іванцов Андрій Жидик |
| author_facet | Олена Баула Дмитро Свинаренко Олена Лютак Сергій Іванцов Андрій Жидик |
| author_sort | Олена Баула |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description |
The sustainable development of a national economy is a central concept in modern public governance, aiming to ensure a balanced interplay between economic growth, social equity, and environmental sustainability. This study seeks to develop theoretical and methodological approaches, alongside practical tools, for modelling and forecasting sustainable economic development. Particular attention is given to the role of human capital as a critical driver that enhances labour productivity, innovation capacity, and resource efficiency. The article highlights key challenges in implementing sustainable development models: the lack of integrated modelling frameworks, insufficient and low-quality data, the pace of global change, the absence of clear methodologies, and limited innovation activity. An econometric model is constructed to evaluate the impact of sustainability components on GDP as a core macroeconomic indicator. The model incorporates economic, social, and environmental variables, emphasizing human capital as a mediating factor. Two-variable trend analyses are used to explore relationships between real GDP and selected indicators. The study identifies the most influential factors as the Consumer Price Index (%), State Budget Deficit (UAH million), Minimum Wage (UAH), Share of Renewable Energy in Total Supply (%), and Energy Consumption from Wind and Solar Sources (thousand tons of oil equivalent). Correlation and determination coefficients are calculated to quantify these relationships. GDP forecasting is conducted using logarithmic, exponential, and power regression models. Based on the findings, the paper outlines strategic directions for promoting sustainable development in Ukraine, focusing on economic, environmental, and social dimensions through the advancement of human capital. The research methodology combines a systemic and interdisciplinary approach, employing tools such as comprehensive factor analysis, strategic planning, and econometric modelling using the Data Analysis and Regression toolkit.
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| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-e8358b1952df4657b11e637b68b2766a |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2306-4994 2310-8770 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-06-01 |
| publisher | FINTECH Alliance LLC |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Фінансово-кредитна діяльність: проблеми теорії та практики |
| spelling | doaj-art-e8358b1952df4657b11e637b68b2766a2025-08-20T03:24:52ZengFINTECH Alliance LLCФінансово-кредитна діяльність: проблеми теорії та практики2306-49942310-87702025-06-0136210.55643/fcaptp.3.62.2025.4773MODELLING OF NATIONAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT IN THE CONTEXT OF ENSURING SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT AND HUMAN CAPITAL PROGRESSОлена Баула0Дмитро Свинаренко1Олена Лютак2Сергій Іванцов3Андрій Жидик4Candidate of Economy Sciences, Associate Professor of the Department of International Economic Relations, Lutsk National Technical University, Lutsk, UkraineCandidate of Technical Sciences, Associate Professor of the Department of Cybersecurity and Information Technologies, University of Customs and Finance, Dnipro, UkraineD.Sc. in Economics, Professor of the Department of International Economic Relations, Lutsk National Technical University, Lutsk, UkraineCandidate of Technical Sciences, Doctoral Student of the Department of International Economic Relations, University of Customs and Finance, Dnipro, UkraineCandidate of Economy Sciences, Doctoral Student of the Department of International Economic Relations, University of Customs and Finance, Dnipro, Ukraine The sustainable development of a national economy is a central concept in modern public governance, aiming to ensure a balanced interplay between economic growth, social equity, and environmental sustainability. This study seeks to develop theoretical and methodological approaches, alongside practical tools, for modelling and forecasting sustainable economic development. Particular attention is given to the role of human capital as a critical driver that enhances labour productivity, innovation capacity, and resource efficiency. The article highlights key challenges in implementing sustainable development models: the lack of integrated modelling frameworks, insufficient and low-quality data, the pace of global change, the absence of clear methodologies, and limited innovation activity. An econometric model is constructed to evaluate the impact of sustainability components on GDP as a core macroeconomic indicator. The model incorporates economic, social, and environmental variables, emphasizing human capital as a mediating factor. Two-variable trend analyses are used to explore relationships between real GDP and selected indicators. The study identifies the most influential factors as the Consumer Price Index (%), State Budget Deficit (UAH million), Minimum Wage (UAH), Share of Renewable Energy in Total Supply (%), and Energy Consumption from Wind and Solar Sources (thousand tons of oil equivalent). Correlation and determination coefficients are calculated to quantify these relationships. GDP forecasting is conducted using logarithmic, exponential, and power regression models. Based on the findings, the paper outlines strategic directions for promoting sustainable development in Ukraine, focusing on economic, environmental, and social dimensions through the advancement of human capital. The research methodology combines a systemic and interdisciplinary approach, employing tools such as comprehensive factor analysis, strategic planning, and econometric modelling using the Data Analysis and Regression toolkit. https://fkd.net.ua/index.php/fkd/article/view/4773sustainable developmenteconomic and mathematical modelingeconomic growthcomponents of sustainable development of the national economyhuman capital |
| spellingShingle | Олена Баула Дмитро Свинаренко Олена Лютак Сергій Іванцов Андрій Жидик MODELLING OF NATIONAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT IN THE CONTEXT OF ENSURING SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT AND HUMAN CAPITAL PROGRESS Фінансово-кредитна діяльність: проблеми теорії та практики sustainable development economic and mathematical modeling economic growth components of sustainable development of the national economy human capital |
| title | MODELLING OF NATIONAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT IN THE CONTEXT OF ENSURING SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT AND HUMAN CAPITAL PROGRESS |
| title_full | MODELLING OF NATIONAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT IN THE CONTEXT OF ENSURING SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT AND HUMAN CAPITAL PROGRESS |
| title_fullStr | MODELLING OF NATIONAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT IN THE CONTEXT OF ENSURING SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT AND HUMAN CAPITAL PROGRESS |
| title_full_unstemmed | MODELLING OF NATIONAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT IN THE CONTEXT OF ENSURING SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT AND HUMAN CAPITAL PROGRESS |
| title_short | MODELLING OF NATIONAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT IN THE CONTEXT OF ENSURING SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT AND HUMAN CAPITAL PROGRESS |
| title_sort | modelling of national economic development in the context of ensuring sustainable development and human capital progress |
| topic | sustainable development economic and mathematical modeling economic growth components of sustainable development of the national economy human capital |
| url | https://fkd.net.ua/index.php/fkd/article/view/4773 |
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