Adequacy of the physician workforce for preparing for future society in Korea: an English translation
Objectives: This study aimed to assess whether the current physician workforce in Korea is sufficient to meet future healthcare demands, considering demographic changes and increasing medical needs. The objective was to project the future s...
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| Main Author: | |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Ewha Womans University College of Medicine
2024-10-01
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| Series: | The Ewha Medical Journal |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.e-emj.org/archive/view_article?pid=emj-47-4-66 |
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| Summary: | Objectives: This study aimed to assess whether the current physician
workforce in Korea is sufficient to meet future healthcare demands, considering
demographic changes and increasing medical needs. The objective was to project
the future supply and demand for physicians and identify potential regional
disparities.
Methods: Data on outpatient and inpatient utilization rates were
obtained from the 2018 Health Insurance Statistical Yearbook, and population
projections were sourced from Statistics Korea (2017–2067). Medical
demand was estimated by multiplying these utilization rates by the population
projections. The supply of physicians was projected using a cohort-component
model that incorporated medical school quotas and age-specific attrition rates.
Two scenarios were developed to account for changes in productivity: Scenario 1
assumed a 50% decrease in productivity for physicians aged 65–75, and
Scenario 2 assumed a 75% decrease. Additionally, regional projections were
analyzed using data from provincial and secondary medical service areas.
Results: National-level projections suggest a looming shortage of
physicians, despite an increase in medical school admissions. Both scenarios
predict a physician shortage, particularly in regions such as North Gyeongsang,
South Chungcheong, and Jeju Island, by 2047. In contrast, Seoul is likely to see
a surplus of physicians. The regional analysis underscores substantial
disparities in physician distribution, with underserved areas experiencing
increasingly severe shortages.
Conclusion: The study concludes that without flexible adjustments to
medical school admission quotas and healthcare delivery systems, Korea will face
significant physician shortages in the coming decades. To address this, it is
necessary to increase the number of physicians in underserved regions and
improve the efficiency of healthcare utilization. |
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| ISSN: | 2234-2591 |