Modeling Regional ESG Performance in the European Union: A Partial Least Squares Approach to Sustainable Economic Systems

This study aims to evaluate the sustainability performance of EU regions through a comprehensive and data-driven Environmental, Social, Governance (ESG) framework, addressing the increasing demand for regional-level analysis in sustainable finance and policy design. Leveraging Partial Least Squares...

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Main Authors: Ioana Birlan, Adriana AnaMaria Davidescu, Catalina-Elena Tita, Tamara Maria Nae
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: MDPI AG 2025-07-01
Series:Mathematics
Subjects:
Online Access:https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/13/15/2337
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author Ioana Birlan
Adriana AnaMaria Davidescu
Catalina-Elena Tita
Tamara Maria Nae
author_facet Ioana Birlan
Adriana AnaMaria Davidescu
Catalina-Elena Tita
Tamara Maria Nae
author_sort Ioana Birlan
collection DOAJ
description This study aims to evaluate the sustainability performance of EU regions through a comprehensive and data-driven Environmental, Social, Governance (ESG) framework, addressing the increasing demand for regional-level analysis in sustainable finance and policy design. Leveraging Partial Least Squares (PLS) regression and cluster analysis, we construct composite ESG indicators that adjust for economic size using GDP normalization and LOESS smoothing. Drawing on panel data from 2010 to 2023 and over 170 indicators, we model the determinants of ESG performance at both the national and regional levels across the EU-27. Time-based ESG trajectories are assessed using Compound Annual Growth Rates (CAGR), capturing resilience to shocks such as the COVID-19 pandemic and geopolitical instability. Our findings reveal clear spatial disparities in ESG performance, highlighting the structural gaps in governance, environmental quality, and social cohesion. The model captures patterns of convergence and divergence across EU regions and identifies common drivers influencing sustainability outcomes. This paper introduces an integrated framework that combines PLS regression, clustering, and time-based trend analysis to assess ESG performance at the subnational level. The originality of this study lies in its multi-layered approach, offering a replicable and scalable model for evaluating sustainability with direct implications for green finance, policy prioritization, and regional development. This study contributes to the literature by applying advanced data-driven techniques to assess ESG dynamics in complex economic systems.
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spelling doaj-art-e7bd6f5b451a4a25892553924f46a1d62025-08-20T03:02:58ZengMDPI AGMathematics2227-73902025-07-011315233710.3390/math13152337Modeling Regional ESG Performance in the European Union: A Partial Least Squares Approach to Sustainable Economic SystemsIoana Birlan0Adriana AnaMaria Davidescu1Catalina-Elena Tita2Tamara Maria Nae3Doctoral School of Economic Cybernetics and Statistics, The Bucharest University of Economic Studies, 010552 Bucharest, RomaniaDepartment of Statistics and Econometrics, The Bucharest University of Economic Studies, 010552 Bucharest, RomaniaFaculty of Cybernetics, Statistics and Economic Informatics, The Bucharest University of Economic Studies, 010552 Bucharest, RomaniaDepartment of Economics and Economic Policy, Bucharest University of Economic Studies, 010552 Bucharest, RomaniaThis study aims to evaluate the sustainability performance of EU regions through a comprehensive and data-driven Environmental, Social, Governance (ESG) framework, addressing the increasing demand for regional-level analysis in sustainable finance and policy design. Leveraging Partial Least Squares (PLS) regression and cluster analysis, we construct composite ESG indicators that adjust for economic size using GDP normalization and LOESS smoothing. Drawing on panel data from 2010 to 2023 and over 170 indicators, we model the determinants of ESG performance at both the national and regional levels across the EU-27. Time-based ESG trajectories are assessed using Compound Annual Growth Rates (CAGR), capturing resilience to shocks such as the COVID-19 pandemic and geopolitical instability. Our findings reveal clear spatial disparities in ESG performance, highlighting the structural gaps in governance, environmental quality, and social cohesion. The model captures patterns of convergence and divergence across EU regions and identifies common drivers influencing sustainability outcomes. This paper introduces an integrated framework that combines PLS regression, clustering, and time-based trend analysis to assess ESG performance at the subnational level. The originality of this study lies in its multi-layered approach, offering a replicable and scalable model for evaluating sustainability with direct implications for green finance, policy prioritization, and regional development. This study contributes to the literature by applying advanced data-driven techniques to assess ESG dynamics in complex economic systems.https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/13/15/2337ESG modelingpartial least squares regressionsustainable economic systemspanel data analysisregional sustainabilityeconometric modeling
spellingShingle Ioana Birlan
Adriana AnaMaria Davidescu
Catalina-Elena Tita
Tamara Maria Nae
Modeling Regional ESG Performance in the European Union: A Partial Least Squares Approach to Sustainable Economic Systems
Mathematics
ESG modeling
partial least squares regression
sustainable economic systems
panel data analysis
regional sustainability
econometric modeling
title Modeling Regional ESG Performance in the European Union: A Partial Least Squares Approach to Sustainable Economic Systems
title_full Modeling Regional ESG Performance in the European Union: A Partial Least Squares Approach to Sustainable Economic Systems
title_fullStr Modeling Regional ESG Performance in the European Union: A Partial Least Squares Approach to Sustainable Economic Systems
title_full_unstemmed Modeling Regional ESG Performance in the European Union: A Partial Least Squares Approach to Sustainable Economic Systems
title_short Modeling Regional ESG Performance in the European Union: A Partial Least Squares Approach to Sustainable Economic Systems
title_sort modeling regional esg performance in the european union a partial least squares approach to sustainable economic systems
topic ESG modeling
partial least squares regression
sustainable economic systems
panel data analysis
regional sustainability
econometric modeling
url https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/13/15/2337
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