Potential change in the distribution of an abundant and wide-ranging forest salamander in a context of climate change
<p style="margin-bottom: 0cm; line-height: 115%;">Climate change already affects species in many ecosystems worldwide. Since climate is an important component of a species’ ecological niche, up-to-date information about climatic niches is needed to model future species distributions...
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Pensoft Publishers
2018-02-01
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| Series: | Frontiers of Biogeography |
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| Online Access: | http://escholarship.org/uc/item/9d97h6n3 |
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| author | Jean-David Moore Martin Ouellet Marie-Claude Lambert |
| author_facet | Jean-David Moore Martin Ouellet Marie-Claude Lambert |
| author_sort | Jean-David Moore |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | <p style="margin-bottom: 0cm; line-height: 115%;">Climate change already affects species in many ecosystems worldwide. Since climate is an important component of a species’ ecological niche, up-to-date information about climatic niches is needed to model future species distributions in a context of climate change. The eastern red-backed salamander (<em>Plethodon cinereus</em>) is a wide-ranging woodland species and one of the most abundant vertebrates in northeastern North America. Though salamanders contribute to several forest ecosystem functions, little is known about their climatic niche and future distribution. Using a dataset of 400,090 observations from 8302 localities in 5 Canadian provinces and 22 American states, we determined the current climatic niche of <em>P. cinereus</em> and predicted how the species’ distribution could shift in a context of climate change, especially in the northern part of its range. We also aimed to document factors that could affect the species’ distribution. We show that <em>P. cinereus</em> can live in various geographic and climatic conditions and tolerate a wide range of seasonal temperatures. The species’ current potential and future (until 2061–2080) distributions show a gap of up to 400 km with the northern limit of its current observed distribution. Assuming a mean colonization rate of approximately 100 m per year, we calculated that <em>P. cinereus</em> would need about 4000 years to reach the northern limit of the future distribution range modeled for the 2061–2080 period. The climate-modeled future distribution suggests that the presence of <em>P. cinereus</em> could decrease in the south and increase in the north. This, combined with the potential presence of habitats that are unsuitable for the species’ colonization in the north and with interspecific interactions in the south, could induce a contraction of the species’ range. Regardless of climate warming, the physical environment and natural and anthropic disturbances could also limit the species’ northern post-glaciation migration.</p> |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-e79d75bd9b2d4d1e8226b64004081f6b |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 1948-6596 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2018-02-01 |
| publisher | Pensoft Publishers |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Frontiers of Biogeography |
| spelling | doaj-art-e79d75bd9b2d4d1e8226b64004081f6b2025-08-20T02:14:20ZengPensoft PublishersFrontiers of Biogeography1948-65962018-02-019410.21425/F5FBG33282ark:13030/qt9d97h6n3Potential change in the distribution of an abundant and wide-ranging forest salamander in a context of climate changeJean-David Moore0Martin Ouellet1Marie-Claude Lambert2Ministère des Forêts, de la Faune et des ParcsAmphibia-NatureMinistère des Forêts, de la Faune et des Parcs<p style="margin-bottom: 0cm; line-height: 115%;">Climate change already affects species in many ecosystems worldwide. Since climate is an important component of a species’ ecological niche, up-to-date information about climatic niches is needed to model future species distributions in a context of climate change. The eastern red-backed salamander (<em>Plethodon cinereus</em>) is a wide-ranging woodland species and one of the most abundant vertebrates in northeastern North America. Though salamanders contribute to several forest ecosystem functions, little is known about their climatic niche and future distribution. Using a dataset of 400,090 observations from 8302 localities in 5 Canadian provinces and 22 American states, we determined the current climatic niche of <em>P. cinereus</em> and predicted how the species’ distribution could shift in a context of climate change, especially in the northern part of its range. We also aimed to document factors that could affect the species’ distribution. We show that <em>P. cinereus</em> can live in various geographic and climatic conditions and tolerate a wide range of seasonal temperatures. The species’ current potential and future (until 2061–2080) distributions show a gap of up to 400 km with the northern limit of its current observed distribution. Assuming a mean colonization rate of approximately 100 m per year, we calculated that <em>P. cinereus</em> would need about 4000 years to reach the northern limit of the future distribution range modeled for the 2061–2080 period. The climate-modeled future distribution suggests that the presence of <em>P. cinereus</em> could decrease in the south and increase in the north. This, combined with the potential presence of habitats that are unsuitable for the species’ colonization in the north and with interspecific interactions in the south, could induce a contraction of the species’ range. Regardless of climate warming, the physical environment and natural and anthropic disturbances could also limit the species’ northern post-glaciation migration.</p>http://escholarship.org/uc/item/9d97h6n3Climate changeClimatic nicheDistributionEastern red-backed salamanderEcological nichePlethodon cinereusRange |
| spellingShingle | Jean-David Moore Martin Ouellet Marie-Claude Lambert Potential change in the distribution of an abundant and wide-ranging forest salamander in a context of climate change Frontiers of Biogeography Climate change Climatic niche Distribution Eastern red-backed salamander Ecological niche Plethodon cinereus Range |
| title | Potential change in the distribution of an abundant and wide-ranging forest salamander in a context of climate change |
| title_full | Potential change in the distribution of an abundant and wide-ranging forest salamander in a context of climate change |
| title_fullStr | Potential change in the distribution of an abundant and wide-ranging forest salamander in a context of climate change |
| title_full_unstemmed | Potential change in the distribution of an abundant and wide-ranging forest salamander in a context of climate change |
| title_short | Potential change in the distribution of an abundant and wide-ranging forest salamander in a context of climate change |
| title_sort | potential change in the distribution of an abundant and wide ranging forest salamander in a context of climate change |
| topic | Climate change Climatic niche Distribution Eastern red-backed salamander Ecological niche Plethodon cinereus Range |
| url | http://escholarship.org/uc/item/9d97h6n3 |
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