Rapid flips between warm and cold extremes in a warming world
Abstract Rapid temperature flips are sudden shifts from extreme warm to cold or vice versa–both challenge humans and ecosystems by leaving a very short time to mitigate two contrasting extremes, but are yet to be understood. Here, we provide a global assessment of rapid temperature flips from 1961 t...
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Nature Portfolio
2025-04-01
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| Series: | Nature Communications |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-58544-5 |
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| author | Sijia Wu Ming Luo Gabriel Ngar-Cheung Lau Wei Zhang Lin Wang Zhen Liu Lijie Lin Yijing Wang Erjia Ge Jianfeng Li Yuanchao Fan Yimin Chen Weilin Liao Xiaoyu Wang Xiaocong Xu Zhixin Qi Ziwei Huang Faith Ka Shun Chan David Yongqin Chen Xiaoping Liu Tao Pei |
| author_facet | Sijia Wu Ming Luo Gabriel Ngar-Cheung Lau Wei Zhang Lin Wang Zhen Liu Lijie Lin Yijing Wang Erjia Ge Jianfeng Li Yuanchao Fan Yimin Chen Weilin Liao Xiaoyu Wang Xiaocong Xu Zhixin Qi Ziwei Huang Faith Ka Shun Chan David Yongqin Chen Xiaoping Liu Tao Pei |
| author_sort | Sijia Wu |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Rapid temperature flips are sudden shifts from extreme warm to cold or vice versa–both challenge humans and ecosystems by leaving a very short time to mitigate two contrasting extremes, but are yet to be understood. Here, we provide a global assessment of rapid temperature flips from 1961 to 2100. Warm-to-cold flips favorably follow wetter and cloudier conditions, while cold-to-warm flips exhibit an opposite feature. Of the global areas defined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, over 60% have experienced more frequent, intense, and rapid flips since 1961, and this trend will expand to most areas in the future. During 2071–2100 under SSP5-8.5, we detect increases of 6.73–8.03% in flip frequency (relative to 1961–1990), 7.16–7.32% increases in intensity, and 2.47–3.24% decreases in transition duration. Global population exposure will increase over onefold, which is exacerbated in low-income countries (4.08–6.49 times above the global average). Our findings underscore the urgency to understand and mitigate the accelerating hazard flips under global warming. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-e79783e1f06e4b5b9b03dd78397db40a |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 2041-1723 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-04-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Nature Communications |
| spelling | doaj-art-e79783e1f06e4b5b9b03dd78397db40a2025-08-20T02:30:26ZengNature PortfolioNature Communications2041-17232025-04-0116111210.1038/s41467-025-58544-5Rapid flips between warm and cold extremes in a warming worldSijia Wu0Ming Luo1Gabriel Ngar-Cheung Lau2Wei Zhang3Lin Wang4Zhen Liu5Lijie Lin6Yijing Wang7Erjia Ge8Jianfeng Li9Yuanchao Fan10Yimin Chen11Weilin Liao12Xiaoyu Wang13Xiaocong Xu14Zhixin Qi15Ziwei Huang16Faith Ka Shun Chan17David Yongqin Chen18Xiaoping Liu19Tao Pei20Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Urbanization and Geo-Simulation, School of Geography and Planning, Sun Yat-sen UniversityGuangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Urbanization and Geo-Simulation, School of Geography and Planning, Sun Yat-sen UniversityProgram in Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Princeton UniversityDepartment of Plants, Soils and Climate, Utah State UniversityCenter for Monsoon System Research, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of SciencesEarth, Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences (EOAS) Thrust, Function Hub, The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology (Guangzhou)School of Management, Guangdong University of TechnologyShanghai Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Particle Pollution and Prevention (LAP3), Department of Environmental Science and Engineering, Fudan UniversityDalla Lana School of Public Health, University of TorontoDepartment of Geography and Resource Management, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Sha Tin, N.T.Institute of Environment and Ecology, Tsinghua Shenzhen International Graduate School, Tsinghua UniversityGuangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Urbanization and Geo-Simulation, School of Geography and Planning, Sun Yat-sen UniversityGuangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Urbanization and Geo-Simulation, School of Geography and Planning, Sun Yat-sen UniversityGuangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Urbanization and Geo-Simulation, School of Geography and Planning, Sun Yat-sen UniversityGuangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Urbanization and Geo-Simulation, School of Geography and Planning, Sun Yat-sen UniversityGuangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Urbanization and Geo-Simulation, School of Geography and Planning, Sun Yat-sen UniversityGuangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Urbanization and Geo-Simulation, School of Geography and Planning, Sun Yat-sen UniversitySchool of Geographical Sciences, University of Nottingham Ningbo ChinaSchool of Humanities and Social Science, The Chinese University of Hong KongGuangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Urbanization and Geo-Simulation, School of Geography and Planning, Sun Yat-sen UniversityState Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of SciencesAbstract Rapid temperature flips are sudden shifts from extreme warm to cold or vice versa–both challenge humans and ecosystems by leaving a very short time to mitigate two contrasting extremes, but are yet to be understood. Here, we provide a global assessment of rapid temperature flips from 1961 to 2100. Warm-to-cold flips favorably follow wetter and cloudier conditions, while cold-to-warm flips exhibit an opposite feature. Of the global areas defined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, over 60% have experienced more frequent, intense, and rapid flips since 1961, and this trend will expand to most areas in the future. During 2071–2100 under SSP5-8.5, we detect increases of 6.73–8.03% in flip frequency (relative to 1961–1990), 7.16–7.32% increases in intensity, and 2.47–3.24% decreases in transition duration. Global population exposure will increase over onefold, which is exacerbated in low-income countries (4.08–6.49 times above the global average). Our findings underscore the urgency to understand and mitigate the accelerating hazard flips under global warming.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-58544-5 |
| spellingShingle | Sijia Wu Ming Luo Gabriel Ngar-Cheung Lau Wei Zhang Lin Wang Zhen Liu Lijie Lin Yijing Wang Erjia Ge Jianfeng Li Yuanchao Fan Yimin Chen Weilin Liao Xiaoyu Wang Xiaocong Xu Zhixin Qi Ziwei Huang Faith Ka Shun Chan David Yongqin Chen Xiaoping Liu Tao Pei Rapid flips between warm and cold extremes in a warming world Nature Communications |
| title | Rapid flips between warm and cold extremes in a warming world |
| title_full | Rapid flips between warm and cold extremes in a warming world |
| title_fullStr | Rapid flips between warm and cold extremes in a warming world |
| title_full_unstemmed | Rapid flips between warm and cold extremes in a warming world |
| title_short | Rapid flips between warm and cold extremes in a warming world |
| title_sort | rapid flips between warm and cold extremes in a warming world |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-58544-5 |
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