Rapid flips between warm and cold extremes in a warming world

Abstract Rapid temperature flips are sudden shifts from extreme warm to cold or vice versa–both challenge humans and ecosystems by leaving a very short time to mitigate two contrasting extremes, but are yet to be understood. Here, we provide a global assessment of rapid temperature flips from 1961 t...

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Main Authors: Sijia Wu, Ming Luo, Gabriel Ngar-Cheung Lau, Wei Zhang, Lin Wang, Zhen Liu, Lijie Lin, Yijing Wang, Erjia Ge, Jianfeng Li, Yuanchao Fan, Yimin Chen, Weilin Liao, Xiaoyu Wang, Xiaocong Xu, Zhixin Qi, Ziwei Huang, Faith Ka Shun Chan, David Yongqin Chen, Xiaoping Liu, Tao Pei
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Nature Portfolio 2025-04-01
Series:Nature Communications
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-58544-5
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Summary:Abstract Rapid temperature flips are sudden shifts from extreme warm to cold or vice versa–both challenge humans and ecosystems by leaving a very short time to mitigate two contrasting extremes, but are yet to be understood. Here, we provide a global assessment of rapid temperature flips from 1961 to 2100. Warm-to-cold flips favorably follow wetter and cloudier conditions, while cold-to-warm flips exhibit an opposite feature. Of the global areas defined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, over 60% have experienced more frequent, intense, and rapid flips since 1961, and this trend will expand to most areas in the future. During 2071–2100 under SSP5-8.5, we detect increases of 6.73–8.03% in flip frequency (relative to 1961–1990), 7.16–7.32% increases in intensity, and 2.47–3.24% decreases in transition duration. Global population exposure will increase over onefold, which is exacerbated in low-income countries (4.08–6.49 times above the global average). Our findings underscore the urgency to understand and mitigate the accelerating hazard flips under global warming.
ISSN:2041-1723