Identification of patients with low risk of severity in confirmed COVID-19 cases. Cuba, 2020- 2021
Introduction: The COVID-19 pandemic, a treat to global health, overwhelmed health systems in many countries. Performing and adequate identification of subjects with very low risk to develop a severe form of the disease is of vital importance. Objective: To identify patients with very low risk of tr...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Universidad de Ciencias Médicas de La Habana
2023-07-01
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| Series: | Revista Habanera de Ciencias Médicas |
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| Online Access: | https://revhabanera.sld.cu/index.php/rhab/article/view/4943 |
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| author | Maicel Eugenio Monzón-Pérez Lizet Sánchez-Valdés Agustín Lage-Dávila |
| author_facet | Maicel Eugenio Monzón-Pérez Lizet Sánchez-Valdés Agustín Lage-Dávila |
| author_sort | Maicel Eugenio Monzón-Pérez |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Introduction: The COVID-19 pandemic, a treat to global health, overwhelmed health systems in many countries. Performing and adequate identification of subjects with very low risk to develop a severe form of the disease is of vital importance.
Objective: To identify patients with very low risk of transition to severity in confirmed COVID-19 cases in Cuba.
Material and Methods: A cohort retrospective study was carried out based on the Cuban National Database of confirmed COVID-19 patients. A total of 10 600 persons were analyzed between March 11th, 2020 and May 31st, 2021. Admission to the Intensive Care Units and mortality related to COVID-19, both measured 30 days after disease confirmation, were the selected response variables. As predictors, age and comorbidities were selected. A classification tree algorithm was applied to identify risk strata. For every stratum, its volume, the risk of transition to severity and the explained risk were calculated.
Results: Subjects under 65 years old with no comorbidities (85.8% of the total sample) had a very low risk (0.2%) of admission to ICU and death (1.2%). Adjusted models showed a good calibration for both variables (accuracy= 0.88) and discriminant ability (area under the ROC curve: 0.89 and 0.88).
Conclusions: The study allowed the identification of subjects with very low risk of transition to severity who were followed up at primary healthcare services, under home surveillance and symptomatic treatment. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-e79781ed6a5a4832baf30036c3815f46 |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 1729-519X |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2023-07-01 |
| publisher | Universidad de Ciencias Médicas de La Habana |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Revista Habanera de Ciencias Médicas |
| spelling | doaj-art-e79781ed6a5a4832baf30036c3815f462025-08-20T02:32:10ZengUniversidad de Ciencias Médicas de La HabanaRevista Habanera de Ciencias Médicas1729-519X2023-07-01221e4943e49432055Identification of patients with low risk of severity in confirmed COVID-19 cases. Cuba, 2020- 2021Maicel Eugenio Monzón-Pérez0Lizet Sánchez-Valdés1Agustín Lage-Dávila2Centro Nacional Coordinador de Ensayos Clíncos (CENCEC). La Habana.Centro de Inmunología Molecular (CIM). La Habana.Centro de Inmunología Molecular (CIM). La Habana.Introduction: The COVID-19 pandemic, a treat to global health, overwhelmed health systems in many countries. Performing and adequate identification of subjects with very low risk to develop a severe form of the disease is of vital importance. Objective: To identify patients with very low risk of transition to severity in confirmed COVID-19 cases in Cuba. Material and Methods: A cohort retrospective study was carried out based on the Cuban National Database of confirmed COVID-19 patients. A total of 10 600 persons were analyzed between March 11th, 2020 and May 31st, 2021. Admission to the Intensive Care Units and mortality related to COVID-19, both measured 30 days after disease confirmation, were the selected response variables. As predictors, age and comorbidities were selected. A classification tree algorithm was applied to identify risk strata. For every stratum, its volume, the risk of transition to severity and the explained risk were calculated. Results: Subjects under 65 years old with no comorbidities (85.8% of the total sample) had a very low risk (0.2%) of admission to ICU and death (1.2%). Adjusted models showed a good calibration for both variables (accuracy= 0.88) and discriminant ability (area under the ROC curve: 0.89 and 0.88). Conclusions: The study allowed the identification of subjects with very low risk of transition to severity who were followed up at primary healthcare services, under home surveillance and symptomatic treatment.https://revhabanera.sld.cu/index.php/rhab/article/view/4943prognosis, triaje, modelos teóricos, covid-19, sars-cov-2. |
| spellingShingle | Maicel Eugenio Monzón-Pérez Lizet Sánchez-Valdés Agustín Lage-Dávila Identification of patients with low risk of severity in confirmed COVID-19 cases. Cuba, 2020- 2021 Revista Habanera de Ciencias Médicas prognosis, triaje, modelos teóricos, covid-19, sars-cov-2. |
| title | Identification of patients with low risk of severity in confirmed COVID-19 cases. Cuba, 2020- 2021 |
| title_full | Identification of patients with low risk of severity in confirmed COVID-19 cases. Cuba, 2020- 2021 |
| title_fullStr | Identification of patients with low risk of severity in confirmed COVID-19 cases. Cuba, 2020- 2021 |
| title_full_unstemmed | Identification of patients with low risk of severity in confirmed COVID-19 cases. Cuba, 2020- 2021 |
| title_short | Identification of patients with low risk of severity in confirmed COVID-19 cases. Cuba, 2020- 2021 |
| title_sort | identification of patients with low risk of severity in confirmed covid 19 cases cuba 2020 2021 |
| topic | prognosis, triaje, modelos teóricos, covid-19, sars-cov-2. |
| url | https://revhabanera.sld.cu/index.php/rhab/article/view/4943 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT maiceleugeniomonzonperez identificationofpatientswithlowriskofseverityinconfirmedcovid19casescuba20202021 AT lizetsanchezvaldes identificationofpatientswithlowriskofseverityinconfirmedcovid19casescuba20202021 AT agustinlagedavila identificationofpatientswithlowriskofseverityinconfirmedcovid19casescuba20202021 |