Forecasting models for leprosy cases: a scoping review protocol
Introduction Leprosy is a neglected tropical disease caused by Mycobacterium leprae that mainly affects the skin, the peripheral nerves, the mucosa of the upper respiratory tract and the eyes. Mathematical models and statistical methodologies could play an important role in decision-making and help...
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BMJ Publishing Group
2022-07-01
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| Series: | BMJ Open |
| Online Access: | https://bmjopen.bmj.com/content/12/7/e062828.full |
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| author | Bruna Oliveira Ascef Gustavo Laine Araújo de Oliveira Carmelita Ribeiro Filha Coriolano Haliton Alves De Oliveira Junior |
| author_facet | Bruna Oliveira Ascef Gustavo Laine Araújo de Oliveira Carmelita Ribeiro Filha Coriolano Haliton Alves De Oliveira Junior |
| author_sort | Bruna Oliveira Ascef |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Introduction Leprosy is a neglected tropical disease caused by Mycobacterium leprae that mainly affects the skin, the peripheral nerves, the mucosa of the upper respiratory tract and the eyes. Mathematical models and statistical methodologies could play an important role in decision-making and help maintain the gains in elimination programmes. Various models for predicting leprosy cases have been reported in the literature, but they have different settings and distinct approaches to predicting the cases. This study describes the protocol for a scoping review to identify and synthesise information from studies using models to forecast leprosy cases.Methods and analysis A scoping review methodology will be applied following the Joanna Briggs Institute methodology for scoping reviews and will be reported according to Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analysis Extension for Scoping Reviews. We will perform a systematic search from when each database started until April 2022 and we will include the following electronic databases: MEDLINE via PubMed, Embase, Cochrane Library and Latin American and Caribbean Health Science Literature Database. Data will be extracted and recorded on a calibrated predefined data form and will be presented in a tabular form accompanied by a descriptive summary. The Prediction Model Study Risk of Bias Assessment Tool (PROBAST) will be used.Ethics and dissemination No ethical approval is required for this study. This scoping review will identify and map the methodological and other characteristics of modelling studies predicting leprosy cases. We hope that the review will contribute to scientific knowledge in this area and act as a basis for researchers designing and conducting leprosy models. This information can also be used to enhance national surveillance systems and to target specific policies. The protocol and consequent publications of this scoping review will be disseminated through peer-reviewed publications and policy briefs.Systematic review registration This scoping review was registered in the Open Science Framework (https://doi.org/10.17605/OSF.IO/W9375). |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-e7742865dc924fff941b73302f2f524e |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2044-6055 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2022-07-01 |
| publisher | BMJ Publishing Group |
| record_format | Article |
| series | BMJ Open |
| spelling | doaj-art-e7742865dc924fff941b73302f2f524e2025-01-31T18:30:09ZengBMJ Publishing GroupBMJ Open2044-60552022-07-0112710.1136/bmjopen-2022-062828Forecasting models for leprosy cases: a scoping review protocolBruna Oliveira Ascef0Gustavo Laine Araújo de Oliveira1Carmelita Ribeiro Filha Coriolano2Haliton Alves De Oliveira Junior3International Research Center, Hospital Alemão Oswaldo Cruz, Sao Paulo, BrazilThe Disease Surveillance and Elimination Coordinating Committee, Department of Chronic Conditions and Sexually Transmitted Infections, Health Surveillance Secretariat, Ministry of Health, Brasília, BrazilThe Disease Surveillance and Elimination Coordinating Committee, Department of Chronic Conditions and Sexually Transmitted Infections, Health Surveillance Secretariat, Ministry of Health, Brasília, BrazilInternational Research Center, Hospital Alemão Oswaldo Cruz, Sao Paulo, BrazilIntroduction Leprosy is a neglected tropical disease caused by Mycobacterium leprae that mainly affects the skin, the peripheral nerves, the mucosa of the upper respiratory tract and the eyes. Mathematical models and statistical methodologies could play an important role in decision-making and help maintain the gains in elimination programmes. Various models for predicting leprosy cases have been reported in the literature, but they have different settings and distinct approaches to predicting the cases. This study describes the protocol for a scoping review to identify and synthesise information from studies using models to forecast leprosy cases.Methods and analysis A scoping review methodology will be applied following the Joanna Briggs Institute methodology for scoping reviews and will be reported according to Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analysis Extension for Scoping Reviews. We will perform a systematic search from when each database started until April 2022 and we will include the following electronic databases: MEDLINE via PubMed, Embase, Cochrane Library and Latin American and Caribbean Health Science Literature Database. Data will be extracted and recorded on a calibrated predefined data form and will be presented in a tabular form accompanied by a descriptive summary. The Prediction Model Study Risk of Bias Assessment Tool (PROBAST) will be used.Ethics and dissemination No ethical approval is required for this study. This scoping review will identify and map the methodological and other characteristics of modelling studies predicting leprosy cases. We hope that the review will contribute to scientific knowledge in this area and act as a basis for researchers designing and conducting leprosy models. This information can also be used to enhance national surveillance systems and to target specific policies. The protocol and consequent publications of this scoping review will be disseminated through peer-reviewed publications and policy briefs.Systematic review registration This scoping review was registered in the Open Science Framework (https://doi.org/10.17605/OSF.IO/W9375).https://bmjopen.bmj.com/content/12/7/e062828.full |
| spellingShingle | Bruna Oliveira Ascef Gustavo Laine Araújo de Oliveira Carmelita Ribeiro Filha Coriolano Haliton Alves De Oliveira Junior Forecasting models for leprosy cases: a scoping review protocol BMJ Open |
| title | Forecasting models for leprosy cases: a scoping review protocol |
| title_full | Forecasting models for leprosy cases: a scoping review protocol |
| title_fullStr | Forecasting models for leprosy cases: a scoping review protocol |
| title_full_unstemmed | Forecasting models for leprosy cases: a scoping review protocol |
| title_short | Forecasting models for leprosy cases: a scoping review protocol |
| title_sort | forecasting models for leprosy cases a scoping review protocol |
| url | https://bmjopen.bmj.com/content/12/7/e062828.full |
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