Impact of Climate Change on the Winter Wheat Productivity Under Varying Climate Scenarios in the Loess Plateau: An APSIM Analysis (1961–2100)
Consideration of crop yield variability caused by long-term climate change offers a way to quantify the interplay between climate change, crop growth, and yield. This study employed the APSIM model to simulate the potential winter wheat yield under varying climate scenarios in 1961–2100 in the Loess...
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2024-11-01
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| author | Donglin Wang Mengjing Guo Jipo Li Siyu Wu Yuhan Cheng Longfei Shi Shaobo Liu Jiankun Ge Qinge Dong Yi Li Feng Wu Tengcong Jiang |
| author_facet | Donglin Wang Mengjing Guo Jipo Li Siyu Wu Yuhan Cheng Longfei Shi Shaobo Liu Jiankun Ge Qinge Dong Yi Li Feng Wu Tengcong Jiang |
| author_sort | Donglin Wang |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Consideration of crop yield variability caused by long-term climate change offers a way to quantify the interplay between climate change, crop growth, and yield. This study employed the APSIM model to simulate the potential winter wheat yield under varying climate scenarios in 1961–2100 in the Loess Plateau. It also evaluated the long-term response and adaptation differences of winter wheat yield to climate change. The results show that there is a slight downward trend in inter-annual precipitation during the winter wheat growth period, with a reduction of −2.38 mm·decade<sup>−1</sup> under the S245 scenario (abbreviated SSP2-4.5) and −2.74 mm·decade<sup>−1</sup> under the S585 scenario (abbreviated SSP5-8.5). Interestingly, the actual yield of winter wheat was positively correlated with precipitation during the growth period but not with temperature. By contrast, climatic yield exhibits a significant correlation with both factors, suggesting that future crop yield will largely depend on its sensitivity to climate change. In addition, climate change may marginally improve yield stability, although regional variations are evident. Notably, potential yields in water-restricted areas, such as Qinghai and Gansu, are significantly influenced by precipitation. This study provides an important reference for formulating long-term adaptation strategies to enhance the resilience of agricultural production against climate change. |
| format | Article |
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| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 2073-4395 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-11-01 |
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| spelling | doaj-art-e757d3962ff14f358fb2d6c38d590ddb2025-08-20T01:53:48ZengMDPI AGAgronomy2073-43952024-11-011411260910.3390/agronomy14112609Impact of Climate Change on the Winter Wheat Productivity Under Varying Climate Scenarios in the Loess Plateau: An APSIM Analysis (1961–2100)Donglin Wang0Mengjing Guo1Jipo Li2Siyu Wu3Yuhan Cheng4Longfei Shi5Shaobo Liu6Jiankun Ge7Qinge Dong8Yi Li9Feng Wu10Tengcong Jiang11College of Water Conservancy, North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power, Zhengzhou 450045, ChinaCollege of Water Conservancy, North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power, Zhengzhou 450045, ChinaCollege of Water Conservancy, North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power, Zhengzhou 450045, ChinaCollege of Water Resources and Civil Engineering, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100083, ChinaCollege of Water Conservancy, North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power, Zhengzhou 450045, ChinaCollege of Water Conservancy, North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power, Zhengzhou 450045, ChinaSchool of Water Resources and Environment Engineering, Nanyang Normal University, Nanyang 473061, ChinaCollege of Water Conservancy, North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power, Zhengzhou 450045, ChinaInstitute of Water-Saving Agriculture in Arid Areas of China (IWSA), Northwest A&F University, Yangling 712100, ChinaInstitute of Water-Saving Agriculture in Arid Areas of China (IWSA), Northwest A&F University, Yangling 712100, ChinaCollege of Water Conservancy, North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power, Zhengzhou 450045, ChinaInstitute of Water-Saving Agriculture in Arid Areas of China (IWSA), Northwest A&F University, Yangling 712100, ChinaConsideration of crop yield variability caused by long-term climate change offers a way to quantify the interplay between climate change, crop growth, and yield. This study employed the APSIM model to simulate the potential winter wheat yield under varying climate scenarios in 1961–2100 in the Loess Plateau. It also evaluated the long-term response and adaptation differences of winter wheat yield to climate change. The results show that there is a slight downward trend in inter-annual precipitation during the winter wheat growth period, with a reduction of −2.38 mm·decade<sup>−1</sup> under the S245 scenario (abbreviated SSP2-4.5) and −2.74 mm·decade<sup>−1</sup> under the S585 scenario (abbreviated SSP5-8.5). Interestingly, the actual yield of winter wheat was positively correlated with precipitation during the growth period but not with temperature. By contrast, climatic yield exhibits a significant correlation with both factors, suggesting that future crop yield will largely depend on its sensitivity to climate change. In addition, climate change may marginally improve yield stability, although regional variations are evident. Notably, potential yields in water-restricted areas, such as Qinghai and Gansu, are significantly influenced by precipitation. This study provides an important reference for formulating long-term adaptation strategies to enhance the resilience of agricultural production against climate change.https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4395/14/11/2609APSIMclimate changeCMIP6correlation analysispotential yieldwinter wheat |
| spellingShingle | Donglin Wang Mengjing Guo Jipo Li Siyu Wu Yuhan Cheng Longfei Shi Shaobo Liu Jiankun Ge Qinge Dong Yi Li Feng Wu Tengcong Jiang Impact of Climate Change on the Winter Wheat Productivity Under Varying Climate Scenarios in the Loess Plateau: An APSIM Analysis (1961–2100) Agronomy APSIM climate change CMIP6 correlation analysis potential yield winter wheat |
| title | Impact of Climate Change on the Winter Wheat Productivity Under Varying Climate Scenarios in the Loess Plateau: An APSIM Analysis (1961–2100) |
| title_full | Impact of Climate Change on the Winter Wheat Productivity Under Varying Climate Scenarios in the Loess Plateau: An APSIM Analysis (1961–2100) |
| title_fullStr | Impact of Climate Change on the Winter Wheat Productivity Under Varying Climate Scenarios in the Loess Plateau: An APSIM Analysis (1961–2100) |
| title_full_unstemmed | Impact of Climate Change on the Winter Wheat Productivity Under Varying Climate Scenarios in the Loess Plateau: An APSIM Analysis (1961–2100) |
| title_short | Impact of Climate Change on the Winter Wheat Productivity Under Varying Climate Scenarios in the Loess Plateau: An APSIM Analysis (1961–2100) |
| title_sort | impact of climate change on the winter wheat productivity under varying climate scenarios in the loess plateau an apsim analysis 1961 2100 |
| topic | APSIM climate change CMIP6 correlation analysis potential yield winter wheat |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4395/14/11/2609 |
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