Scenarios of fuel vector trajectories in the Italian road vehicle fleet to 2030 and their impacts on EU GHG reduction targets
The transport sector’s decarbonization remains a critical challenge in reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and achieving the EU Green Deal 2030 targets (−43.7% with respect to 2005). This article develops forecasts for 2030 to assess the potential reduction in tank-to-wheel (TtW) and well-to-whe...
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Frontiers Media S.A.
2025-08-01
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| Series: | Frontiers in Future Transportation |
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| Online Access: | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/ffutr.2025.1644106/full |
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| author | Davide Di Domenico Carlo Beatrice Ilaria Henke Mariarosaria Picone Armando Cartenì Ennio Cascetta |
| author_facet | Davide Di Domenico Carlo Beatrice Ilaria Henke Mariarosaria Picone Armando Cartenì Ennio Cascetta |
| author_sort | Davide Di Domenico |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The transport sector’s decarbonization remains a critical challenge in reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and achieving the EU Green Deal 2030 targets (−43.7% with respect to 2005). This article develops forecasts for 2030 to assess the potential reduction in tank-to-wheel (TtW) and well-to-wheel (WtW) GHG emissions within the Italian road transportation sector. Two tendential scenarios, namely, “High Decarbo” and “Moderate Decarbo,” are constructed based on differing hypotheses and on adoption rates of measures and policies aimed at promoting sustainable transportation (e.g., subsidies for electric vehicles) that are already in effect. The “Moderate Decarbo” forecasts project a 12% TtW and a 15% WtW GHG emissions reduction compared to 2005 levels. Under favorable assumptions, GHG emissions could potentially be reduced by 28% TtW and 33% WtW, nearing EU targets but still falling below them. The impact of electrification has been broken down, and the hybrid electric vehicle (HEV) contribution on GHG reduction is expected to be very close to that of battery electric vehicles (BEVs), underlining the advantages that an increased spread of HEVs might have, in addition to the BEVs. The introduction of the law-required quantities of second-generation biofuels is the main driver for the higher WtW reductions. Two more “trend-breaking” 2030 scenarios are developed in which biofuels are spread, maximizing the Italian production capabilities to abate the environmental impact of the freight sector. In the High Decarbo scenario, the WtW GHG emissions reduction is up to 40%, demonstrating the impact that a smart use of biofuels might have. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-e74b9c791a4842ba999a5ce0a1b4b0c4 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2673-5210 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-08-01 |
| publisher | Frontiers Media S.A. |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Frontiers in Future Transportation |
| spelling | doaj-art-e74b9c791a4842ba999a5ce0a1b4b0c42025-08-20T03:34:13ZengFrontiers Media S.A.Frontiers in Future Transportation2673-52102025-08-01610.3389/ffutr.2025.16441061644106Scenarios of fuel vector trajectories in the Italian road vehicle fleet to 2030 and their impacts on EU GHG reduction targetsDavide Di Domenico0Carlo Beatrice1Ilaria Henke2Mariarosaria Picone3Armando Cartenì4Ennio Cascetta5National Research Council - Institute of Sciences and Technologies for Sustainable Energy and Mobility (CNR-STEMS), Naples, ItalyNational Research Council - Institute of Sciences and Technologies for Sustainable Energy and Mobility (CNR-STEMS), Naples, ItalyDepartment of Engineering and Sciences, Universitas Mercatorum, Rome, ItalyDepartment of Engineering, University of Campania “Luigi Vanvitelli”, Caserta, ItalyDepartment of Architecture and Industrial Design, University of Campania “Luigi Vanvitelli”, Caserta, ItalyDepartment of Engineering and Sciences, Universitas Mercatorum, Rome, ItalyThe transport sector’s decarbonization remains a critical challenge in reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and achieving the EU Green Deal 2030 targets (−43.7% with respect to 2005). This article develops forecasts for 2030 to assess the potential reduction in tank-to-wheel (TtW) and well-to-wheel (WtW) GHG emissions within the Italian road transportation sector. Two tendential scenarios, namely, “High Decarbo” and “Moderate Decarbo,” are constructed based on differing hypotheses and on adoption rates of measures and policies aimed at promoting sustainable transportation (e.g., subsidies for electric vehicles) that are already in effect. The “Moderate Decarbo” forecasts project a 12% TtW and a 15% WtW GHG emissions reduction compared to 2005 levels. Under favorable assumptions, GHG emissions could potentially be reduced by 28% TtW and 33% WtW, nearing EU targets but still falling below them. The impact of electrification has been broken down, and the hybrid electric vehicle (HEV) contribution on GHG reduction is expected to be very close to that of battery electric vehicles (BEVs), underlining the advantages that an increased spread of HEVs might have, in addition to the BEVs. The introduction of the law-required quantities of second-generation biofuels is the main driver for the higher WtW reductions. Two more “trend-breaking” 2030 scenarios are developed in which biofuels are spread, maximizing the Italian production capabilities to abate the environmental impact of the freight sector. In the High Decarbo scenario, the WtW GHG emissions reduction is up to 40%, demonstrating the impact that a smart use of biofuels might have.https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/ffutr.2025.1644106/fullroad transport decarbonizationpaths to 2030green mobilitybiofuelssustainable transportation |
| spellingShingle | Davide Di Domenico Carlo Beatrice Ilaria Henke Mariarosaria Picone Armando Cartenì Ennio Cascetta Scenarios of fuel vector trajectories in the Italian road vehicle fleet to 2030 and their impacts on EU GHG reduction targets Frontiers in Future Transportation road transport decarbonization paths to 2030 green mobility biofuels sustainable transportation |
| title | Scenarios of fuel vector trajectories in the Italian road vehicle fleet to 2030 and their impacts on EU GHG reduction targets |
| title_full | Scenarios of fuel vector trajectories in the Italian road vehicle fleet to 2030 and their impacts on EU GHG reduction targets |
| title_fullStr | Scenarios of fuel vector trajectories in the Italian road vehicle fleet to 2030 and their impacts on EU GHG reduction targets |
| title_full_unstemmed | Scenarios of fuel vector trajectories in the Italian road vehicle fleet to 2030 and their impacts on EU GHG reduction targets |
| title_short | Scenarios of fuel vector trajectories in the Italian road vehicle fleet to 2030 and their impacts on EU GHG reduction targets |
| title_sort | scenarios of fuel vector trajectories in the italian road vehicle fleet to 2030 and their impacts on eu ghg reduction targets |
| topic | road transport decarbonization paths to 2030 green mobility biofuels sustainable transportation |
| url | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/ffutr.2025.1644106/full |
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