Improving the Electron Radiation Belt Nowcast and Forecast Using the SafeSpace Data Assimilation Modeling Pipeline
Abstract The H2020 SafeSpace project aims at the implementation of a space weather safety prototype, in particular to predict the deep charging hazard. The proposed service is built on a Sun‐to‐Earth chain of physical codes that propagates physical information and uncertainties in order to model the...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2023-08-01
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| Series: | Space Weather |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2022SW003377 |
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| author | A. Brunet N. Dahmen C. Katsavrias O. Santolík G. Bernoux V. Pierrard E. Botek F. Darrouzet A. Nasi S. Aminalragia‐Giamini C. Papadimitriou S. Bourdarie I. A. Daglis |
| author_facet | A. Brunet N. Dahmen C. Katsavrias O. Santolík G. Bernoux V. Pierrard E. Botek F. Darrouzet A. Nasi S. Aminalragia‐Giamini C. Papadimitriou S. Bourdarie I. A. Daglis |
| author_sort | A. Brunet |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract The H2020 SafeSpace project aims at the implementation of a space weather safety prototype, in particular to predict the deep charging hazard. The proposed service is built on a Sun‐to‐Earth chain of physical codes that propagates physical information and uncertainties in order to model the outer radiation belt dynamics. In this paper, we present the inner magnetosphere section of the SafeSpace pipeline that relies on solar wind driven and hourly updated models that describe the trapped electron environment (VLF waves, cold plasma and seed population densities), as well as the physical processes to which the trapped electrons are subjected to, such as radial diffusion and wave particle interactions. Then, this physical configuration is poured into the Salammbô‐EnKF model, a data assimilation radiation belt model which provides a global forecast of the densities across the radiation belts. We have compared the forecasting performance of this new modeling pipeline to a reference model during the St. Patrick's Day storm in 2015. We show that the new SafeSpace implementation shows closer results to the observations in addition to a better forecast within the prediction horizon. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-e7474be4b1e3467780b63dd92514b15f |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1542-7390 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2023-08-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Space Weather |
| spelling | doaj-art-e7474be4b1e3467780b63dd92514b15f2025-01-14T16:31:19ZengWileySpace Weather1542-73902023-08-01218n/an/a10.1029/2022SW003377Improving the Electron Radiation Belt Nowcast and Forecast Using the SafeSpace Data Assimilation Modeling PipelineA. Brunet0N. Dahmen1C. Katsavrias2O. Santolík3G. Bernoux4V. Pierrard5E. Botek6F. Darrouzet7A. Nasi8S. Aminalragia‐Giamini9C. Papadimitriou10S. Bourdarie11I. A. Daglis12ONERA/DPHY Université de Toulouse Toulouse FranceONERA/DPHY Université de Toulouse Toulouse FranceDepartment of Physics National and Kapodistrian University of Athens Athens GreeceDepartment of Space Physics Institute of Atmospheric Physics of the Czech Academy of Sciences Prague CzechiaONERA/DPHY Université de Toulouse Toulouse FranceRoyal Belgian Institute for Space Aeronomy BIRA–IASB Brussels BelgiumRoyal Belgian Institute for Space Aeronomy BIRA–IASB Brussels BelgiumRoyal Belgian Institute for Space Aeronomy BIRA–IASB Brussels BelgiumDepartment of Physics National and Kapodistrian University of Athens Athens GreeceDepartment of Physics National and Kapodistrian University of Athens Athens GreeceDepartment of Physics National and Kapodistrian University of Athens Athens GreeceONERA/DPHY Université de Toulouse Toulouse FranceDepartment of Physics National and Kapodistrian University of Athens Athens GreeceAbstract The H2020 SafeSpace project aims at the implementation of a space weather safety prototype, in particular to predict the deep charging hazard. The proposed service is built on a Sun‐to‐Earth chain of physical codes that propagates physical information and uncertainties in order to model the outer radiation belt dynamics. In this paper, we present the inner magnetosphere section of the SafeSpace pipeline that relies on solar wind driven and hourly updated models that describe the trapped electron environment (VLF waves, cold plasma and seed population densities), as well as the physical processes to which the trapped electrons are subjected to, such as radial diffusion and wave particle interactions. Then, this physical configuration is poured into the Salammbô‐EnKF model, a data assimilation radiation belt model which provides a global forecast of the densities across the radiation belts. We have compared the forecasting performance of this new modeling pipeline to a reference model during the St. Patrick's Day storm in 2015. We show that the new SafeSpace implementation shows closer results to the observations in addition to a better forecast within the prediction horizon.https://doi.org/10.1029/2022SW003377radiation beltsdata assimilationspace weatherforecastnumerical simulation |
| spellingShingle | A. Brunet N. Dahmen C. Katsavrias O. Santolík G. Bernoux V. Pierrard E. Botek F. Darrouzet A. Nasi S. Aminalragia‐Giamini C. Papadimitriou S. Bourdarie I. A. Daglis Improving the Electron Radiation Belt Nowcast and Forecast Using the SafeSpace Data Assimilation Modeling Pipeline Space Weather radiation belts data assimilation space weather forecast numerical simulation |
| title | Improving the Electron Radiation Belt Nowcast and Forecast Using the SafeSpace Data Assimilation Modeling Pipeline |
| title_full | Improving the Electron Radiation Belt Nowcast and Forecast Using the SafeSpace Data Assimilation Modeling Pipeline |
| title_fullStr | Improving the Electron Radiation Belt Nowcast and Forecast Using the SafeSpace Data Assimilation Modeling Pipeline |
| title_full_unstemmed | Improving the Electron Radiation Belt Nowcast and Forecast Using the SafeSpace Data Assimilation Modeling Pipeline |
| title_short | Improving the Electron Radiation Belt Nowcast and Forecast Using the SafeSpace Data Assimilation Modeling Pipeline |
| title_sort | improving the electron radiation belt nowcast and forecast using the safespace data assimilation modeling pipeline |
| topic | radiation belts data assimilation space weather forecast numerical simulation |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1029/2022SW003377 |
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