Driving mechanism of multiple policy combinations on photovoltaic industry-economy-environment synergy optimization: Simulation analysis based on system dynamics
[Objective] To address the insufficient policy coordination facing the sustainable development of the photovoltaic (PV) industry, this study explores the mechanisms through which multi-policy combinations influence the coordinated development of the PV industry, economy, and environment from a life...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | zho |
| Published: |
Science Press, PR China
2025-05-01
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| Series: | Ziyuan Kexue |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.resci.cn/fileup/1007-7588/PDF/1750126965076-624214868.pdf |
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| Summary: | [Objective] To address the insufficient policy coordination facing the sustainable development of the photovoltaic (PV) industry, this study explores the mechanisms through which multi-policy combinations influence the coordinated development of the PV industry, economy, and environment from a life cycle perspective. Additionally, it designs policy combinations to promote the high-quality development of the entire PV industry chain. [Methods] Based on multiple factors such as economic benefits and costs, environmental impacts, and policy formulation throughout the whole life cycle, a system dynamics model for high-quality PV industry development was established. Then, the coordinated development trend of China’s PV industry-economy-environment synergy from 2011 to 2030 was simulated under single and combined policies such as technological progress, power generation incentives, carbon trading, tax incentives, and recycling subsidies. [Results] (1) Under the baseline scenario, China’s PV installed capacity would reach 2374.19 GW by 2030, contributing 2.826 billion tons of carbon emission reduction but generating 20.96 GW of waste. (2) Under the single policy scenario, each policy could improve PV installed capacity, waste recycling scale, profits, and capacity investment to varying degrees, thereby promoting carbon emission reduction. Meanwhile, as policy implementation gradually intensified, its promoting effect became increasingly significant. Among them, technological progress policies demonstrated the most prominent results. (3) Combined policies outperformed single policies. Among all kinds of combined policies, the combination of technological progress and tax incentives showed the most outstanding effect in promoting the high-quality development of the PV industry. [Conclusion] Combined policies can provide sustained momentum for the coordinated development of the PV industry, economy, and environment. Given the differences in their effects on industrial scale, emission reduction, recycling, and other aspects, targeted application of diversified policy tools is essential. Throughout the whole life cycle of the PV industry, the continuous implementation of technological progress policies is necessary to reduce component costs, extend lifespan, and improve efficiency through innovative processes, thereby fostering its high-quality development. |
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| ISSN: | 1007-7588 |