Nomogram Based on Cytokines for Cardiovascular Diseases in Xinjiang Kazakhs

Background. This study involved the development of a predictive 5-year morbidity nomogram for cardiovascular diseases (CVD) in Xinjiang Kazakhs based on cytokine levels. Methods. The nomogram was based on a baseline survey of the town of Nalati in the Kazakh Autonomous Prefecture of Xinjiang from 20...

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Main Authors: Lei Mao, Xianghui Zhang, Yunhua Hu, Xinping Wang, Yanpeng Song, Jia He, Wenwen Yang, Jiaolong Ma, Yizhong Yan, Lati Mu, Jingyu Zhang, Kui Wang, Heng Guo, Rulin Ma, Shuxia Guo
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Wiley 2019-01-01
Series:Mediators of Inflammation
Online Access:http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2019/4756295
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author Lei Mao
Xianghui Zhang
Yunhua Hu
Xinping Wang
Yanpeng Song
Jia He
Wenwen Yang
Jiaolong Ma
Yizhong Yan
Lati Mu
Jingyu Zhang
Kui Wang
Heng Guo
Rulin Ma
Shuxia Guo
author_facet Lei Mao
Xianghui Zhang
Yunhua Hu
Xinping Wang
Yanpeng Song
Jia He
Wenwen Yang
Jiaolong Ma
Yizhong Yan
Lati Mu
Jingyu Zhang
Kui Wang
Heng Guo
Rulin Ma
Shuxia Guo
author_sort Lei Mao
collection DOAJ
description Background. This study involved the development of a predictive 5-year morbidity nomogram for cardiovascular diseases (CVD) in Xinjiang Kazakhs based on cytokine levels. Methods. The nomogram was based on a baseline survey of the town of Nalati in the Kazakh Autonomous Prefecture of Xinjiang from 2009 to 2013. By 2016, we had monitored 1508 people for a median time of 5.17 years and identified CVD events in the study population by collecting case information from local hospitals. The study population was divided into the training (n=1005) and validation cohorts (n=503) in a 2 : 1 ratio. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was used to verify the predictive accuracy of the nomogram. The result was assessed in a validation cohort. Results. At the end of the study, the incidence of CVD in Xinjiang Kazakhs was found to be 11.28%. We developed a new nomogram to predict the 5-year incidence of CVD based on age, interleukin-6 (IL-6), and adiponectin (APN) levels, diastolic blood pressure, and dyslipidemia. The AUC for the predictive accuracy of the nomogram was 0.836 (95% confidence interval: 0.802–0.869), which was higher than that for IL-6 and APN. These results were supported by validation studies. Conclusions. The nomogram model can more directly assess the risk of CVD in Kazakhs and can be used for CVD risk assessment.
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spelling doaj-art-e715e8fbe1734a1fa7621647ce6684552025-08-20T02:21:10ZengWileyMediators of Inflammation0962-93511466-18612019-01-01201910.1155/2019/47562954756295Nomogram Based on Cytokines for Cardiovascular Diseases in Xinjiang KazakhsLei Mao0Xianghui Zhang1Yunhua Hu2Xinping Wang3Yanpeng Song4Jia He5Wenwen Yang6Jiaolong Ma7Yizhong Yan8Lati Mu9Jingyu Zhang10Kui Wang11Heng Guo12Rulin Ma13Shuxia Guo14Department of Public Health, Shihezi University School of Medicine, Shihezi, Xinjiang 832000, ChinaDepartment of Public Health, Shihezi University School of Medicine, Shihezi, Xinjiang 832000, ChinaDepartment of Public Health, Shihezi University School of Medicine, Shihezi, Xinjiang 832000, ChinaDepartment of Public Health, Shihezi University School of Medicine, Shihezi, Xinjiang 832000, ChinaDepartment of Public Health, Shihezi University School of Medicine, Shihezi, Xinjiang 832000, ChinaDepartment of Public Health, Shihezi University School of Medicine, Shihezi, Xinjiang 832000, ChinaDepartment of Public Health, Shihezi University School of Medicine, Shihezi, Xinjiang 832000, ChinaDepartment of Public Health, Shihezi University School of Medicine, Shihezi, Xinjiang 832000, ChinaDepartment of Public Health, Shihezi University School of Medicine, Shihezi, Xinjiang 832000, ChinaDepartment of Public Health, Shihezi University School of Medicine, Shihezi, Xinjiang 832000, ChinaDepartment of Public Health, Shihezi University School of Medicine, Shihezi, Xinjiang 832000, ChinaDepartment of Public Health, Shihezi University School of Medicine, Shihezi, Xinjiang 832000, ChinaDepartment of Public Health, Shihezi University School of Medicine, Shihezi, Xinjiang 832000, ChinaDepartment of Public Health, Shihezi University School of Medicine, Shihezi, Xinjiang 832000, ChinaDepartment of Public Health, Shihezi University School of Medicine, Shihezi, Xinjiang 832000, ChinaBackground. This study involved the development of a predictive 5-year morbidity nomogram for cardiovascular diseases (CVD) in Xinjiang Kazakhs based on cytokine levels. Methods. The nomogram was based on a baseline survey of the town of Nalati in the Kazakh Autonomous Prefecture of Xinjiang from 2009 to 2013. By 2016, we had monitored 1508 people for a median time of 5.17 years and identified CVD events in the study population by collecting case information from local hospitals. The study population was divided into the training (n=1005) and validation cohorts (n=503) in a 2 : 1 ratio. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was used to verify the predictive accuracy of the nomogram. The result was assessed in a validation cohort. Results. At the end of the study, the incidence of CVD in Xinjiang Kazakhs was found to be 11.28%. We developed a new nomogram to predict the 5-year incidence of CVD based on age, interleukin-6 (IL-6), and adiponectin (APN) levels, diastolic blood pressure, and dyslipidemia. The AUC for the predictive accuracy of the nomogram was 0.836 (95% confidence interval: 0.802–0.869), which was higher than that for IL-6 and APN. These results were supported by validation studies. Conclusions. The nomogram model can more directly assess the risk of CVD in Kazakhs and can be used for CVD risk assessment.http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2019/4756295
spellingShingle Lei Mao
Xianghui Zhang
Yunhua Hu
Xinping Wang
Yanpeng Song
Jia He
Wenwen Yang
Jiaolong Ma
Yizhong Yan
Lati Mu
Jingyu Zhang
Kui Wang
Heng Guo
Rulin Ma
Shuxia Guo
Nomogram Based on Cytokines for Cardiovascular Diseases in Xinjiang Kazakhs
Mediators of Inflammation
title Nomogram Based on Cytokines for Cardiovascular Diseases in Xinjiang Kazakhs
title_full Nomogram Based on Cytokines for Cardiovascular Diseases in Xinjiang Kazakhs
title_fullStr Nomogram Based on Cytokines for Cardiovascular Diseases in Xinjiang Kazakhs
title_full_unstemmed Nomogram Based on Cytokines for Cardiovascular Diseases in Xinjiang Kazakhs
title_short Nomogram Based on Cytokines for Cardiovascular Diseases in Xinjiang Kazakhs
title_sort nomogram based on cytokines for cardiovascular diseases in xinjiang kazakhs
url http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2019/4756295
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