Evaluating the Impact of Macroeconomic Policy Interventions and Recession on a Sewage Treatment PPP Project Using a System Dynamic Model

The revenue of a public-private partnership (PPP) project is influenced by macroeconomic scenarios such as economic recession and policy adjustments. But these macrofactors and their dynamic relations with microfactors in PPP projects have not been thoroughly understood. In this article, system dyna...

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Main Authors: Qian Liu, Zaiyi Liao, Qi Guo, Dagmawi Mulugeta Degefu, Liang Yuan, Shenjun Jiang, Feihong Jian
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Wiley 2023-01-01
Series:Advances in Civil Engineering
Online Access:http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2023/2351910
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author Qian Liu
Zaiyi Liao
Qi Guo
Dagmawi Mulugeta Degefu
Liang Yuan
Shenjun Jiang
Feihong Jian
author_facet Qian Liu
Zaiyi Liao
Qi Guo
Dagmawi Mulugeta Degefu
Liang Yuan
Shenjun Jiang
Feihong Jian
author_sort Qian Liu
collection DOAJ
description The revenue of a public-private partnership (PPP) project is influenced by macroeconomic scenarios such as economic recession and policy adjustments. But these macrofactors and their dynamic relations with microfactors in PPP projects have not been thoroughly understood. In this article, system dynamics (SD) and real option (RO) are integrated to develop a novel model to investigate the impacts of the macro-risk factors on the revenue of PPP projects. Five scenarios were studied through simulation. The results indicate that the loan interest rate and tax rate are negatively correlated to the revenue, while the GDP growth rate and self-owned capital rate are positively correlated. This indicates that the government can stimulate the private sector to invest in PPP projects by providing lower loan interest and increasing the self-owned capital rate. This integrated approach has been proposed for use by decision-makers to evaluate the impact of economics and policies in the future. This study provides a comprehensive review and reliable theoretical analysis regarding the adoption of PPP by China’s local governments, yielding to main policy implications for further promoting the efficiency of PPP development.
format Article
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institution Kabale University
issn 1687-8094
language English
publishDate 2023-01-01
publisher Wiley
record_format Article
series Advances in Civil Engineering
spelling doaj-art-e706fb0ea5244a6795c34326e546848d2025-08-20T03:24:43ZengWileyAdvances in Civil Engineering1687-80942023-01-01202310.1155/2023/2351910Evaluating the Impact of Macroeconomic Policy Interventions and Recession on a Sewage Treatment PPP Project Using a System Dynamic ModelQian Liu0Zaiyi Liao1Qi Guo2Dagmawi Mulugeta Degefu3Liang Yuan4Shenjun Jiang5Feihong Jian6College of Hydraulic and Environmental EngineeringDepartment of Architectural ScienceCollege of Hydraulic and Environmental EngineeringDepartment of Architectural ScienceCollege of Economics and ManagementCollege of Economics and ManagementCollege of Hydraulic and Environmental EngineeringThe revenue of a public-private partnership (PPP) project is influenced by macroeconomic scenarios such as economic recession and policy adjustments. But these macrofactors and their dynamic relations with microfactors in PPP projects have not been thoroughly understood. In this article, system dynamics (SD) and real option (RO) are integrated to develop a novel model to investigate the impacts of the macro-risk factors on the revenue of PPP projects. Five scenarios were studied through simulation. The results indicate that the loan interest rate and tax rate are negatively correlated to the revenue, while the GDP growth rate and self-owned capital rate are positively correlated. This indicates that the government can stimulate the private sector to invest in PPP projects by providing lower loan interest and increasing the self-owned capital rate. This integrated approach has been proposed for use by decision-makers to evaluate the impact of economics and policies in the future. This study provides a comprehensive review and reliable theoretical analysis regarding the adoption of PPP by China’s local governments, yielding to main policy implications for further promoting the efficiency of PPP development.http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2023/2351910
spellingShingle Qian Liu
Zaiyi Liao
Qi Guo
Dagmawi Mulugeta Degefu
Liang Yuan
Shenjun Jiang
Feihong Jian
Evaluating the Impact of Macroeconomic Policy Interventions and Recession on a Sewage Treatment PPP Project Using a System Dynamic Model
Advances in Civil Engineering
title Evaluating the Impact of Macroeconomic Policy Interventions and Recession on a Sewage Treatment PPP Project Using a System Dynamic Model
title_full Evaluating the Impact of Macroeconomic Policy Interventions and Recession on a Sewage Treatment PPP Project Using a System Dynamic Model
title_fullStr Evaluating the Impact of Macroeconomic Policy Interventions and Recession on a Sewage Treatment PPP Project Using a System Dynamic Model
title_full_unstemmed Evaluating the Impact of Macroeconomic Policy Interventions and Recession on a Sewage Treatment PPP Project Using a System Dynamic Model
title_short Evaluating the Impact of Macroeconomic Policy Interventions and Recession on a Sewage Treatment PPP Project Using a System Dynamic Model
title_sort evaluating the impact of macroeconomic policy interventions and recession on a sewage treatment ppp project using a system dynamic model
url http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2023/2351910
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