Beyond Linearity: Uncovering the Complex Spatiotemporal Drivers of New-Type Urbanization and Eco-Environmental Resilience Coupling in China’s Chengdu–Chongqing Economic Circle with Machine Learning

Rapid urbanization worldwide has led to ecological challenges, undermining eco-environmental resilience (EER). Understanding the coupling coordination between new-type urbanization (NTU) and EER is critical for achieving sustainable urban development. This study investigates the Chengdu–Chongqing Ec...

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Main Authors: Caoxin Chen, Shiyi Wang, Meixi Liu, Ke Huang, Qiuyi Guo, Wei Xie, Jiangjun Wan
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: MDPI AG 2025-07-01
Series:Land
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Online Access:https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/14/7/1424
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author Caoxin Chen
Shiyi Wang
Meixi Liu
Ke Huang
Qiuyi Guo
Wei Xie
Jiangjun Wan
author_facet Caoxin Chen
Shiyi Wang
Meixi Liu
Ke Huang
Qiuyi Guo
Wei Xie
Jiangjun Wan
author_sort Caoxin Chen
collection DOAJ
description Rapid urbanization worldwide has led to ecological challenges, undermining eco-environmental resilience (EER). Understanding the coupling coordination between new-type urbanization (NTU) and EER is critical for achieving sustainable urban development. This study investigates the Chengdu–Chongqing Economic Circle using the coupling coordination degree (CCD) model to evaluate NTU-EER coordination levels and their spatiotemporal evolution. A random forest (RF) model, interpreted with Shapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) and Partial Dependence Plot (PDP) algorithms, explores nonlinear driving mechanisms, while Geographically and Temporally Weighted Regression (GTWR) assesses drivers’ spatiotemporal heterogeneity. The results reveal the following: (1) NTU and EER levels steadily improved from 2004 to 2022, although coordination between cities still requires enhancement; (2) CCD exhibited a temporal pattern of “progressive escalation and continuous optimization,” and a spatial pattern of “dual-core leadership and regional diffusion,” with most cities shifting from NTU-lagged to synchronized development; (3) environmental regulations (MAR) and fixed asset investment (FIX) emerged as the most influential CCD drivers, and significant nonlinear interactions were observed, particularly those involving population size (HUM); (4) CCD drivers exhibited complex spatiotemporal heterogeneity, characterized by “stage dominance—marginal variation—spatial mismatch.” These findings enrich existing research and offer policy insights to enhance coordinated development in the Chengdu–Chongqing Economic Circle.
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spelling doaj-art-e6f8ae1d32fa49c1a4fb0ebe41109a572025-08-20T03:08:06ZengMDPI AGLand2073-445X2025-07-01147142410.3390/land14071424Beyond Linearity: Uncovering the Complex Spatiotemporal Drivers of New-Type Urbanization and Eco-Environmental Resilience Coupling in China’s Chengdu–Chongqing Economic Circle with Machine LearningCaoxin Chen0Shiyi Wang1Meixi Liu2Ke Huang3Qiuyi Guo4Wei Xie5Jiangjun Wan6School of Architecture and Urban-Rural Planning, Sichuan Agricultural University, Chengdu 611830, ChinaSchool of Architecture and Urban-Rural Planning, Sichuan Agricultural University, Chengdu 611830, ChinaSchool of Architecture and Urban-Rural Planning, Sichuan Agricultural University, Chengdu 611830, ChinaSchool of Architecture and Urban-Rural Planning, Sichuan Agricultural University, Chengdu 611830, ChinaSchool of Architecture and Urban-Rural Planning, Sichuan Agricultural University, Chengdu 611830, ChinaSchool of Economics and Business Administration, Yibin University, Yibin 644005, ChinaSchool of Architecture and Urban-Rural Planning, Sichuan Agricultural University, Chengdu 611830, ChinaRapid urbanization worldwide has led to ecological challenges, undermining eco-environmental resilience (EER). Understanding the coupling coordination between new-type urbanization (NTU) and EER is critical for achieving sustainable urban development. This study investigates the Chengdu–Chongqing Economic Circle using the coupling coordination degree (CCD) model to evaluate NTU-EER coordination levels and their spatiotemporal evolution. A random forest (RF) model, interpreted with Shapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) and Partial Dependence Plot (PDP) algorithms, explores nonlinear driving mechanisms, while Geographically and Temporally Weighted Regression (GTWR) assesses drivers’ spatiotemporal heterogeneity. The results reveal the following: (1) NTU and EER levels steadily improved from 2004 to 2022, although coordination between cities still requires enhancement; (2) CCD exhibited a temporal pattern of “progressive escalation and continuous optimization,” and a spatial pattern of “dual-core leadership and regional diffusion,” with most cities shifting from NTU-lagged to synchronized development; (3) environmental regulations (MAR) and fixed asset investment (FIX) emerged as the most influential CCD drivers, and significant nonlinear interactions were observed, particularly those involving population size (HUM); (4) CCD drivers exhibited complex spatiotemporal heterogeneity, characterized by “stage dominance—marginal variation—spatial mismatch.” These findings enrich existing research and offer policy insights to enhance coordinated development in the Chengdu–Chongqing Economic Circle.https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/14/7/1424new-type urbanizationeco-environmental resiliencecoupling coordinationrandom forestgeographically and temporally weighted regressionChengdu–Chongqing economic circle
spellingShingle Caoxin Chen
Shiyi Wang
Meixi Liu
Ke Huang
Qiuyi Guo
Wei Xie
Jiangjun Wan
Beyond Linearity: Uncovering the Complex Spatiotemporal Drivers of New-Type Urbanization and Eco-Environmental Resilience Coupling in China’s Chengdu–Chongqing Economic Circle with Machine Learning
Land
new-type urbanization
eco-environmental resilience
coupling coordination
random forest
geographically and temporally weighted regression
Chengdu–Chongqing economic circle
title Beyond Linearity: Uncovering the Complex Spatiotemporal Drivers of New-Type Urbanization and Eco-Environmental Resilience Coupling in China’s Chengdu–Chongqing Economic Circle with Machine Learning
title_full Beyond Linearity: Uncovering the Complex Spatiotemporal Drivers of New-Type Urbanization and Eco-Environmental Resilience Coupling in China’s Chengdu–Chongqing Economic Circle with Machine Learning
title_fullStr Beyond Linearity: Uncovering the Complex Spatiotemporal Drivers of New-Type Urbanization and Eco-Environmental Resilience Coupling in China’s Chengdu–Chongqing Economic Circle with Machine Learning
title_full_unstemmed Beyond Linearity: Uncovering the Complex Spatiotemporal Drivers of New-Type Urbanization and Eco-Environmental Resilience Coupling in China’s Chengdu–Chongqing Economic Circle with Machine Learning
title_short Beyond Linearity: Uncovering the Complex Spatiotemporal Drivers of New-Type Urbanization and Eco-Environmental Resilience Coupling in China’s Chengdu–Chongqing Economic Circle with Machine Learning
title_sort beyond linearity uncovering the complex spatiotemporal drivers of new type urbanization and eco environmental resilience coupling in china s chengdu chongqing economic circle with machine learning
topic new-type urbanization
eco-environmental resilience
coupling coordination
random forest
geographically and temporally weighted regression
Chengdu–Chongqing economic circle
url https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/14/7/1424
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