The impact of climate suitability, urbanisation, and connectivity on the expansion of dengue in 21st century Brazil.
Dengue is hyperendemic in Brazil, with outbreaks affecting all regions. Previous studies identified geographical barriers to dengue transmission in Brazil, beyond which certain areas, such as South Brazil and the Amazon rainforest, were relatively protected from outbreaks. Recent data shows these ba...
Saved in:
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Public Library of Science (PLoS)
2021-12-01
|
| Series: | PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases |
| Online Access: | https://journals.plos.org/plosntds/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pntd.0009773&type=printable |
| Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
| _version_ | 1850074867776356352 |
|---|---|
| author | Sophie A Lee Theodoros Economou Rafael de Castro Catão Christovam Barcellos Rachel Lowe |
| author_facet | Sophie A Lee Theodoros Economou Rafael de Castro Catão Christovam Barcellos Rachel Lowe |
| author_sort | Sophie A Lee |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Dengue is hyperendemic in Brazil, with outbreaks affecting all regions. Previous studies identified geographical barriers to dengue transmission in Brazil, beyond which certain areas, such as South Brazil and the Amazon rainforest, were relatively protected from outbreaks. Recent data shows these barriers are being eroded. In this study, we explore the drivers of this expansion and identify the current limits to the dengue transmission zone. We used a spatio-temporal additive model to explore the associations between dengue outbreaks and temperature suitability, urbanisation, and connectivity to the Brazilian urban network. The model was applied to a binary outbreak indicator, assuming the official threshold value of 300 cases per 100,000 residents, for Brazil's municipalities between 2001 and 2020. We found a nonlinear relationship between higher levels of connectivity to the Brazilian urban network and the odds of an outbreak, with lower odds in metropoles compared to regional capitals. The number of months per year with suitable temperature conditions for Aedes mosquitoes was positively associated with the dengue outbreak occurrence. Temperature suitability explained most interannual and spatial variation in South Brazil, confirming this geographical barrier is influenced by lower seasonal temperatures. Municipalities that had experienced an outbreak previously had double the odds of subsequent outbreaks. We identified geographical barriers to dengue transmission in South Brazil, western Amazon, and along the northern coast of Brazil. Although a southern barrier still exists, it has shifted south, and the Amazon no longer has a clear boundary. Few areas of Brazil remain protected from dengue outbreaks. Communities living on the edge of previous barriers are particularly susceptible to future outbreaks as they lack immunity. Control strategies should target regions at risk of future outbreaks as well as those currently within the dengue transmission zone. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-e6b8ec23a38d4d1bb0f514e3f38ebf24 |
| institution | DOAJ |
| issn | 1935-2727 1935-2735 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2021-12-01 |
| publisher | Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
| record_format | Article |
| series | PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases |
| spelling | doaj-art-e6b8ec23a38d4d1bb0f514e3f38ebf242025-08-20T02:46:28ZengPublic Library of Science (PLoS)PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases1935-27271935-27352021-12-011512e000977310.1371/journal.pntd.0009773The impact of climate suitability, urbanisation, and connectivity on the expansion of dengue in 21st century Brazil.Sophie A LeeTheodoros EconomouRafael de Castro CatãoChristovam BarcellosRachel LoweDengue is hyperendemic in Brazil, with outbreaks affecting all regions. Previous studies identified geographical barriers to dengue transmission in Brazil, beyond which certain areas, such as South Brazil and the Amazon rainforest, were relatively protected from outbreaks. Recent data shows these barriers are being eroded. In this study, we explore the drivers of this expansion and identify the current limits to the dengue transmission zone. We used a spatio-temporal additive model to explore the associations between dengue outbreaks and temperature suitability, urbanisation, and connectivity to the Brazilian urban network. The model was applied to a binary outbreak indicator, assuming the official threshold value of 300 cases per 100,000 residents, for Brazil's municipalities between 2001 and 2020. We found a nonlinear relationship between higher levels of connectivity to the Brazilian urban network and the odds of an outbreak, with lower odds in metropoles compared to regional capitals. The number of months per year with suitable temperature conditions for Aedes mosquitoes was positively associated with the dengue outbreak occurrence. Temperature suitability explained most interannual and spatial variation in South Brazil, confirming this geographical barrier is influenced by lower seasonal temperatures. Municipalities that had experienced an outbreak previously had double the odds of subsequent outbreaks. We identified geographical barriers to dengue transmission in South Brazil, western Amazon, and along the northern coast of Brazil. Although a southern barrier still exists, it has shifted south, and the Amazon no longer has a clear boundary. Few areas of Brazil remain protected from dengue outbreaks. Communities living on the edge of previous barriers are particularly susceptible to future outbreaks as they lack immunity. Control strategies should target regions at risk of future outbreaks as well as those currently within the dengue transmission zone.https://journals.plos.org/plosntds/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pntd.0009773&type=printable |
| spellingShingle | Sophie A Lee Theodoros Economou Rafael de Castro Catão Christovam Barcellos Rachel Lowe The impact of climate suitability, urbanisation, and connectivity on the expansion of dengue in 21st century Brazil. PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases |
| title | The impact of climate suitability, urbanisation, and connectivity on the expansion of dengue in 21st century Brazil. |
| title_full | The impact of climate suitability, urbanisation, and connectivity on the expansion of dengue in 21st century Brazil. |
| title_fullStr | The impact of climate suitability, urbanisation, and connectivity on the expansion of dengue in 21st century Brazil. |
| title_full_unstemmed | The impact of climate suitability, urbanisation, and connectivity on the expansion of dengue in 21st century Brazil. |
| title_short | The impact of climate suitability, urbanisation, and connectivity on the expansion of dengue in 21st century Brazil. |
| title_sort | impact of climate suitability urbanisation and connectivity on the expansion of dengue in 21st century brazil |
| url | https://journals.plos.org/plosntds/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pntd.0009773&type=printable |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT sophiealee theimpactofclimatesuitabilityurbanisationandconnectivityontheexpansionofdenguein21stcenturybrazil AT theodoroseconomou theimpactofclimatesuitabilityurbanisationandconnectivityontheexpansionofdenguein21stcenturybrazil AT rafaeldecastrocatao theimpactofclimatesuitabilityurbanisationandconnectivityontheexpansionofdenguein21stcenturybrazil AT christovambarcellos theimpactofclimatesuitabilityurbanisationandconnectivityontheexpansionofdenguein21stcenturybrazil AT rachellowe theimpactofclimatesuitabilityurbanisationandconnectivityontheexpansionofdenguein21stcenturybrazil AT sophiealee impactofclimatesuitabilityurbanisationandconnectivityontheexpansionofdenguein21stcenturybrazil AT theodoroseconomou impactofclimatesuitabilityurbanisationandconnectivityontheexpansionofdenguein21stcenturybrazil AT rafaeldecastrocatao impactofclimatesuitabilityurbanisationandconnectivityontheexpansionofdenguein21stcenturybrazil AT christovambarcellos impactofclimatesuitabilityurbanisationandconnectivityontheexpansionofdenguein21stcenturybrazil AT rachellowe impactofclimatesuitabilityurbanisationandconnectivityontheexpansionofdenguein21stcenturybrazil |