Modeling the variability of temperature on the population dynamics of Anopheles arabiensis
Abstract Mosquitoes, notorious vectors of numerous diseases transmitted through bites, pose a significant public health threat, particularly in tropical and subtropical regions. Climate change may affect the risk of mosquito-borne diseases. This study investigated how temperature affects the populat...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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BMC
2025-03-01
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| Series: | BMC Research Notes |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1186/s13104-025-07153-y |
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| author | Ademe Kebede Gizaw Temesgen Erena Eba Alemayehu Simma Dawit Kechine Menbiko Dinka Tilahun Etefa Delenasaw Yewhalaw Chernet Tuge Deressa |
| author_facet | Ademe Kebede Gizaw Temesgen Erena Eba Alemayehu Simma Dawit Kechine Menbiko Dinka Tilahun Etefa Delenasaw Yewhalaw Chernet Tuge Deressa |
| author_sort | Ademe Kebede Gizaw |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Mosquitoes, notorious vectors of numerous diseases transmitted through bites, pose a significant public health threat, particularly in tropical and subtropical regions. Climate change may affect the risk of mosquito-borne diseases. This study investigated how temperature affects the population dynamics of all stages of Anopheles arabiensis mosquitoes, including eggs, larvae, pupae, and adults. We developed and analyzed a mathematical model that incorporates logistic growth and temperature. The well-posedness of the proposed model was proved. We demonstrated that if the non-autonomous basic reproduction number is less than unity, the disease-free equilibrium is locally asymptotically stable. Conversely, if it is greater than unity, there exists at least one positive periodic solution, as established by applying the comparison theorem and the theory of uniform persistence. Furthermore, the model parameters were fitted to real-world data conducted in the Tropical and Infectious Diseases Research Center (TIDRC) in Sekoru, Jimma University. The model presents the population dynamics of both immature and adult An. Arabiensis, which is similar to the observed experimental data obtained from TIDRC. Therefore, our model suggests that using the results obtained, it can be used to predict the impact of various intervention strategies on An. arabiensis distribution. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-e6b7f6915a6f4402a97c19431cda0ffb |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1756-0500 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-03-01 |
| publisher | BMC |
| record_format | Article |
| series | BMC Research Notes |
| spelling | doaj-art-e6b7f6915a6f4402a97c19431cda0ffb2025-08-20T03:40:46ZengBMCBMC Research Notes1756-05002025-03-0118112210.1186/s13104-025-07153-yModeling the variability of temperature on the population dynamics of Anopheles arabiensisAdeme Kebede Gizaw0Temesgen Erena1Eba Alemayehu Simma2Dawit Kechine Menbiko3Dinka Tilahun Etefa4Delenasaw Yewhalaw5Chernet Tuge Deressa6Department of Mathematics, College of Natural Sciences, Jimma UniversityDepartment of Biology, College of Natural Sciences, Jimma UniversityDepartment of Biology, College of Natural Sciences, Jimma UniversityDepartment of Mathematics, College of Natural Sciences, Jimma UniversityDepartment of Mathematics, College of Natural Sciences, Jimma UniversitySchool of Medical Laboratory Science, Institute of Health, Jimma UniversityDepartment of Mathematics, College of Natural Sciences, Jimma UniversityAbstract Mosquitoes, notorious vectors of numerous diseases transmitted through bites, pose a significant public health threat, particularly in tropical and subtropical regions. Climate change may affect the risk of mosquito-borne diseases. This study investigated how temperature affects the population dynamics of all stages of Anopheles arabiensis mosquitoes, including eggs, larvae, pupae, and adults. We developed and analyzed a mathematical model that incorporates logistic growth and temperature. The well-posedness of the proposed model was proved. We demonstrated that if the non-autonomous basic reproduction number is less than unity, the disease-free equilibrium is locally asymptotically stable. Conversely, if it is greater than unity, there exists at least one positive periodic solution, as established by applying the comparison theorem and the theory of uniform persistence. Furthermore, the model parameters were fitted to real-world data conducted in the Tropical and Infectious Diseases Research Center (TIDRC) in Sekoru, Jimma University. The model presents the population dynamics of both immature and adult An. Arabiensis, which is similar to the observed experimental data obtained from TIDRC. Therefore, our model suggests that using the results obtained, it can be used to predict the impact of various intervention strategies on An. arabiensis distribution.https://doi.org/10.1186/s13104-025-07153-yMalaria transmissionBasic reproduction ratioModelingAnopheles arabiensisEthiopia |
| spellingShingle | Ademe Kebede Gizaw Temesgen Erena Eba Alemayehu Simma Dawit Kechine Menbiko Dinka Tilahun Etefa Delenasaw Yewhalaw Chernet Tuge Deressa Modeling the variability of temperature on the population dynamics of Anopheles arabiensis BMC Research Notes Malaria transmission Basic reproduction ratio Modeling Anopheles arabiensis Ethiopia |
| title | Modeling the variability of temperature on the population dynamics of Anopheles arabiensis |
| title_full | Modeling the variability of temperature on the population dynamics of Anopheles arabiensis |
| title_fullStr | Modeling the variability of temperature on the population dynamics of Anopheles arabiensis |
| title_full_unstemmed | Modeling the variability of temperature on the population dynamics of Anopheles arabiensis |
| title_short | Modeling the variability of temperature on the population dynamics of Anopheles arabiensis |
| title_sort | modeling the variability of temperature on the population dynamics of anopheles arabiensis |
| topic | Malaria transmission Basic reproduction ratio Modeling Anopheles arabiensis Ethiopia |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1186/s13104-025-07153-y |
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