Quantification of Surface Forcing Requirements for a Greenland Ice Sheet Model Using Uncertainty Analyses
Abstract The Greenland Ice Sheet is a substantial reservoir of almost 7 m of sea level equivalent, and on average, climate dictates 60% of its sea level contribution. Changes in ice discharge, driven by perturbations in outlet glacier ice dynamics, constitute the rest. Climate also affects ice disch...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2019-08-01
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| Series: | Geophysical Research Letters |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL083532 |
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| _version_ | 1849715464675000320 |
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| author | Nicole‐Jeanne Schlegel Eric Y. Larour |
| author_facet | Nicole‐Jeanne Schlegel Eric Y. Larour |
| author_sort | Nicole‐Jeanne Schlegel |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract The Greenland Ice Sheet is a substantial reservoir of almost 7 m of sea level equivalent, and on average, climate dictates 60% of its sea level contribution. Changes in ice discharge, driven by perturbations in outlet glacier ice dynamics, constitute the rest. Climate also affects ice discharge, since the flow of interior ice feeding the outlet glaciers evolves in response to surface changes over time. Here, using an ice sheet model and uncertainty quantification, we explore ice flow sensitivity to climate‐driven changes in ice surface topography on multidecadal timescales. We find that changes in surface forcing near large outlet glaciers can influence region‐wide ice flow. Improvements to climate products should be prioritized in these areas, especially in the Central West and Southeast. Results also suggest that over most of Greenland, surface forcing should be supplied at a spatial resolution of 21 km or finer to accurately simulate ice response to climate change. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-e6a2250eb82c4d8d95ea94ec9ee119b4 |
| institution | DOAJ |
| issn | 0094-8276 1944-8007 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2019-08-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Geophysical Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj-art-e6a2250eb82c4d8d95ea94ec9ee119b42025-08-20T03:13:22ZengWileyGeophysical Research Letters0094-82761944-80072019-08-0146169700970910.1029/2019GL083532Quantification of Surface Forcing Requirements for a Greenland Ice Sheet Model Using Uncertainty AnalysesNicole‐Jeanne Schlegel0Eric Y. Larour1Jet Propulsion Laboratory California Institute of Technology Pasadena CA USAJet Propulsion Laboratory California Institute of Technology Pasadena CA USAAbstract The Greenland Ice Sheet is a substantial reservoir of almost 7 m of sea level equivalent, and on average, climate dictates 60% of its sea level contribution. Changes in ice discharge, driven by perturbations in outlet glacier ice dynamics, constitute the rest. Climate also affects ice discharge, since the flow of interior ice feeding the outlet glaciers evolves in response to surface changes over time. Here, using an ice sheet model and uncertainty quantification, we explore ice flow sensitivity to climate‐driven changes in ice surface topography on multidecadal timescales. We find that changes in surface forcing near large outlet glaciers can influence region‐wide ice flow. Improvements to climate products should be prioritized in these areas, especially in the Central West and Southeast. Results also suggest that over most of Greenland, surface forcing should be supplied at a spatial resolution of 21 km or finer to accurately simulate ice response to climate change.https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL083532ice sheetmodelingsurface mass balanceice dynamics |
| spellingShingle | Nicole‐Jeanne Schlegel Eric Y. Larour Quantification of Surface Forcing Requirements for a Greenland Ice Sheet Model Using Uncertainty Analyses Geophysical Research Letters ice sheet modeling surface mass balance ice dynamics |
| title | Quantification of Surface Forcing Requirements for a Greenland Ice Sheet Model Using Uncertainty Analyses |
| title_full | Quantification of Surface Forcing Requirements for a Greenland Ice Sheet Model Using Uncertainty Analyses |
| title_fullStr | Quantification of Surface Forcing Requirements for a Greenland Ice Sheet Model Using Uncertainty Analyses |
| title_full_unstemmed | Quantification of Surface Forcing Requirements for a Greenland Ice Sheet Model Using Uncertainty Analyses |
| title_short | Quantification of Surface Forcing Requirements for a Greenland Ice Sheet Model Using Uncertainty Analyses |
| title_sort | quantification of surface forcing requirements for a greenland ice sheet model using uncertainty analyses |
| topic | ice sheet modeling surface mass balance ice dynamics |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL083532 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT nicolejeanneschlegel quantificationofsurfaceforcingrequirementsforagreenlandicesheetmodelusinguncertaintyanalyses AT ericylarour quantificationofsurfaceforcingrequirementsforagreenlandicesheetmodelusinguncertaintyanalyses |