Quantification of Surface Forcing Requirements for a Greenland Ice Sheet Model Using Uncertainty Analyses

Abstract The Greenland Ice Sheet is a substantial reservoir of almost 7 m of sea level equivalent, and on average, climate dictates 60% of its sea level contribution. Changes in ice discharge, driven by perturbations in outlet glacier ice dynamics, constitute the rest. Climate also affects ice disch...

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Main Authors: Nicole‐Jeanne Schlegel, Eric Y. Larour
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Wiley 2019-08-01
Series:Geophysical Research Letters
Subjects:
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL083532
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author Nicole‐Jeanne Schlegel
Eric Y. Larour
author_facet Nicole‐Jeanne Schlegel
Eric Y. Larour
author_sort Nicole‐Jeanne Schlegel
collection DOAJ
description Abstract The Greenland Ice Sheet is a substantial reservoir of almost 7 m of sea level equivalent, and on average, climate dictates 60% of its sea level contribution. Changes in ice discharge, driven by perturbations in outlet glacier ice dynamics, constitute the rest. Climate also affects ice discharge, since the flow of interior ice feeding the outlet glaciers evolves in response to surface changes over time. Here, using an ice sheet model and uncertainty quantification, we explore ice flow sensitivity to climate‐driven changes in ice surface topography on multidecadal timescales. We find that changes in surface forcing near large outlet glaciers can influence region‐wide ice flow. Improvements to climate products should be prioritized in these areas, especially in the Central West and Southeast. Results also suggest that over most of Greenland, surface forcing should be supplied at a spatial resolution of 21 km or finer to accurately simulate ice response to climate change.
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series Geophysical Research Letters
spelling doaj-art-e6a2250eb82c4d8d95ea94ec9ee119b42025-08-20T03:13:22ZengWileyGeophysical Research Letters0094-82761944-80072019-08-0146169700970910.1029/2019GL083532Quantification of Surface Forcing Requirements for a Greenland Ice Sheet Model Using Uncertainty AnalysesNicole‐Jeanne Schlegel0Eric Y. Larour1Jet Propulsion Laboratory California Institute of Technology Pasadena CA USAJet Propulsion Laboratory California Institute of Technology Pasadena CA USAAbstract The Greenland Ice Sheet is a substantial reservoir of almost 7 m of sea level equivalent, and on average, climate dictates 60% of its sea level contribution. Changes in ice discharge, driven by perturbations in outlet glacier ice dynamics, constitute the rest. Climate also affects ice discharge, since the flow of interior ice feeding the outlet glaciers evolves in response to surface changes over time. Here, using an ice sheet model and uncertainty quantification, we explore ice flow sensitivity to climate‐driven changes in ice surface topography on multidecadal timescales. We find that changes in surface forcing near large outlet glaciers can influence region‐wide ice flow. Improvements to climate products should be prioritized in these areas, especially in the Central West and Southeast. Results also suggest that over most of Greenland, surface forcing should be supplied at a spatial resolution of 21 km or finer to accurately simulate ice response to climate change.https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL083532ice sheetmodelingsurface mass balanceice dynamics
spellingShingle Nicole‐Jeanne Schlegel
Eric Y. Larour
Quantification of Surface Forcing Requirements for a Greenland Ice Sheet Model Using Uncertainty Analyses
Geophysical Research Letters
ice sheet
modeling
surface mass balance
ice dynamics
title Quantification of Surface Forcing Requirements for a Greenland Ice Sheet Model Using Uncertainty Analyses
title_full Quantification of Surface Forcing Requirements for a Greenland Ice Sheet Model Using Uncertainty Analyses
title_fullStr Quantification of Surface Forcing Requirements for a Greenland Ice Sheet Model Using Uncertainty Analyses
title_full_unstemmed Quantification of Surface Forcing Requirements for a Greenland Ice Sheet Model Using Uncertainty Analyses
title_short Quantification of Surface Forcing Requirements for a Greenland Ice Sheet Model Using Uncertainty Analyses
title_sort quantification of surface forcing requirements for a greenland ice sheet model using uncertainty analyses
topic ice sheet
modeling
surface mass balance
ice dynamics
url https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL083532
work_keys_str_mv AT nicolejeanneschlegel quantificationofsurfaceforcingrequirementsforagreenlandicesheetmodelusinguncertaintyanalyses
AT ericylarour quantificationofsurfaceforcingrequirementsforagreenlandicesheetmodelusinguncertaintyanalyses