Observational Limitations to the Emergence of Climate Signals
Abstract Using model projections to study the emergence of observable climate signals presumes omniscient knowledge about the climate system. In reality, observational knowledge suffers from data quality and availability issues, for instance data gaps, changes in instrumentation, issues due to gridd...
Saved in:
| Main Authors: | , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Wiley
2024-07-01
|
| Series: | Geophysical Research Letters |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL109638 |
| Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
| _version_ | 1850272166563545088 |
|---|---|
| author | Louis Rivoire Marianna Linz Jingyuan Li |
| author_facet | Louis Rivoire Marianna Linz Jingyuan Li |
| author_sort | Louis Rivoire |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Using model projections to study the emergence of observable climate signals presumes omniscient knowledge about the climate system. In reality, observational knowledge suffers from data quality and availability issues, for instance data gaps, changes in instrumentation, issues due to gridding and retrieval algorithms. Overlooking such deficiencies leads to misrepresentations of the time of emergence (ToE). We introduce a new definition of ToE that accounts for observational limitations, and show that significant corrections to the ToE may be necessary to achieve the same statistical confidence as would be afforded by omniscient knowledge. We also show how our method can inform future observational needs and observing systems design. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-e65d1328ca31486699fb6154e6e282dd |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 0094-8276 1944-8007 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-07-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Geophysical Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj-art-e65d1328ca31486699fb6154e6e282dd2025-08-20T01:51:55ZengWileyGeophysical Research Letters0094-82761944-80072024-07-015114n/an/a10.1029/2024GL109638Observational Limitations to the Emergence of Climate SignalsLouis Rivoire0Marianna Linz1Jingyuan Li2Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences Harvard University Cambridge MA USADepartment of Earth and Planetary Sciences Harvard University Cambridge MA USAScripps Institution of Oceanography University of California at San Diego La Jolla CA USAAbstract Using model projections to study the emergence of observable climate signals presumes omniscient knowledge about the climate system. In reality, observational knowledge suffers from data quality and availability issues, for instance data gaps, changes in instrumentation, issues due to gridding and retrieval algorithms. Overlooking such deficiencies leads to misrepresentations of the time of emergence (ToE). We introduce a new definition of ToE that accounts for observational limitations, and show that significant corrections to the ToE may be necessary to achieve the same statistical confidence as would be afforded by omniscient knowledge. We also show how our method can inform future observational needs and observing systems design.https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL109638time of emergencelong‐term trendsclimate trendstrend detectionobservational uncertaintiesinternal variability |
| spellingShingle | Louis Rivoire Marianna Linz Jingyuan Li Observational Limitations to the Emergence of Climate Signals Geophysical Research Letters time of emergence long‐term trends climate trends trend detection observational uncertainties internal variability |
| title | Observational Limitations to the Emergence of Climate Signals |
| title_full | Observational Limitations to the Emergence of Climate Signals |
| title_fullStr | Observational Limitations to the Emergence of Climate Signals |
| title_full_unstemmed | Observational Limitations to the Emergence of Climate Signals |
| title_short | Observational Limitations to the Emergence of Climate Signals |
| title_sort | observational limitations to the emergence of climate signals |
| topic | time of emergence long‐term trends climate trends trend detection observational uncertainties internal variability |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL109638 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT louisrivoire observationallimitationstotheemergenceofclimatesignals AT mariannalinz observationallimitationstotheemergenceofclimatesignals AT jingyuanli observationallimitationstotheemergenceofclimatesignals |