Projected changes in population exposure to drought across the Philippines under CMIP6 forcing scenarios
Drought is a weather extreme of great concern owing to their impacts being intertwined with the water resources, agriculture and energy productions that contribute considerably to the economy and livelihood of a society. Consequently, this study investigated the projected changes in drought frequenc...
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IOP Publishing
2025-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Communications |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/addfad |
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| author | Shelly Jo Igpuara Ignacio-Reardon Jing-jia Luo Augustine Omondi Onyango |
| author_facet | Shelly Jo Igpuara Ignacio-Reardon Jing-jia Luo Augustine Omondi Onyango |
| author_sort | Shelly Jo Igpuara Ignacio-Reardon |
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| description | Drought is a weather extreme of great concern owing to their impacts being intertwined with the water resources, agriculture and energy productions that contribute considerably to the economy and livelihood of a society. Consequently, this study investigated the projected changes in drought frequency, severity and duration under the mid and high-emission scenarios. The future changes in drought frequency present a mixed result under Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP)2-4.5 with an increase projected over Luzon and western Visayas Island in both the mid and Far-future. However, the frequency of drought appears to have significantly reduced under SSP5-8.5 (<24%) with the reduction larger in the Far-future compared to the mid-future. On the other hand, the duration is expected to reduce significantly over central Luzon and a longer drought is projected over northern Mindanao towards the end of the 21st century. During the mid-century, the drought intensity is anticipated to decrease in central Luzon, Zamboanga and Palawan islands and increase in Mindanao and western Visayas under SSP2-4.5. Similarly, the drought intensity is projected to further decrease in Visayas and Luzon islands while increasing in Palawan and Zamboanga islands. Analysis reveals that the population exposed to drought will increase across the Philippines for the two future periods compared to the reference period. Generally, exposure to moderate drought is large compared to other types of droughts for both historical, mid and end of the 21st century under the two combined SSP5-8.5:SSP5 and SSP2-4.5:SSP2 scenarios. Under SSP2-4.5 scenarios, the mid and end of the 21st century two targeted epochs, climate change and climate-population interaction effect are the primary contributors to exposure. Conversely, in SSP5-8.5, the contribution from climate effect dominates other contributors for population exposure during both the mid and end of the 21st century while the population effect contributes the least during the two periods. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-e6546471c5254881a4c787f14dcde254 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2515-7620 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Communications |
| spelling | doaj-art-e6546471c5254881a4c787f14dcde2542025-08-20T03:47:16ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Communications2515-76202025-01-017606502610.1088/2515-7620/addfadProjected changes in population exposure to drought across the Philippines under CMIP6 forcing scenariosShelly Jo Igpuara Ignacio-Reardon0https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2664-6411Jing-jia Luo1Augustine Omondi Onyango2Institute for Climate and Application Research (ICAR)/CIC-FEMD/KLME/ILCEC, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology , Nanjing, Jiangsu, People’s Republic of China; College of Atmospheric Science, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology , Nanjing, Jiangsu, People’s Republic of China; Science and Mathematics Department, Tallahassee State College , Tallahassee, FL, United States of AmericaInstitute for Climate and Application Research (ICAR)/CIC-FEMD/KLME/ILCEC, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology , Nanjing, Jiangsu, People’s Republic of China; College of Atmospheric Science, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology , Nanjing, Jiangsu, People’s Republic of ChinaMeteorology Department, Abu Dhabi Polytechnic , Mohamed Bin Zayed City, Abu Dhabi, United Arab EmiratesDrought is a weather extreme of great concern owing to their impacts being intertwined with the water resources, agriculture and energy productions that contribute considerably to the economy and livelihood of a society. Consequently, this study investigated the projected changes in drought frequency, severity and duration under the mid and high-emission scenarios. The future changes in drought frequency present a mixed result under Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP)2-4.5 with an increase projected over Luzon and western Visayas Island in both the mid and Far-future. However, the frequency of drought appears to have significantly reduced under SSP5-8.5 (<24%) with the reduction larger in the Far-future compared to the mid-future. On the other hand, the duration is expected to reduce significantly over central Luzon and a longer drought is projected over northern Mindanao towards the end of the 21st century. During the mid-century, the drought intensity is anticipated to decrease in central Luzon, Zamboanga and Palawan islands and increase in Mindanao and western Visayas under SSP2-4.5. Similarly, the drought intensity is projected to further decrease in Visayas and Luzon islands while increasing in Palawan and Zamboanga islands. Analysis reveals that the population exposed to drought will increase across the Philippines for the two future periods compared to the reference period. Generally, exposure to moderate drought is large compared to other types of droughts for both historical, mid and end of the 21st century under the two combined SSP5-8.5:SSP5 and SSP2-4.5:SSP2 scenarios. Under SSP2-4.5 scenarios, the mid and end of the 21st century two targeted epochs, climate change and climate-population interaction effect are the primary contributors to exposure. Conversely, in SSP5-8.5, the contribution from climate effect dominates other contributors for population exposure during both the mid and end of the 21st century while the population effect contributes the least during the two periods.https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/addfaddroughtpopulation exposurePhilippines |
| spellingShingle | Shelly Jo Igpuara Ignacio-Reardon Jing-jia Luo Augustine Omondi Onyango Projected changes in population exposure to drought across the Philippines under CMIP6 forcing scenarios Environmental Research Communications drought population exposure Philippines |
| title | Projected changes in population exposure to drought across the Philippines under CMIP6 forcing scenarios |
| title_full | Projected changes in population exposure to drought across the Philippines under CMIP6 forcing scenarios |
| title_fullStr | Projected changes in population exposure to drought across the Philippines under CMIP6 forcing scenarios |
| title_full_unstemmed | Projected changes in population exposure to drought across the Philippines under CMIP6 forcing scenarios |
| title_short | Projected changes in population exposure to drought across the Philippines under CMIP6 forcing scenarios |
| title_sort | projected changes in population exposure to drought across the philippines under cmip6 forcing scenarios |
| topic | drought population exposure Philippines |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/addfad |
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