Projected changes in population exposure to drought across the Philippines under CMIP6 forcing scenarios
Drought is a weather extreme of great concern owing to their impacts being intertwined with the water resources, agriculture and energy productions that contribute considerably to the economy and livelihood of a society. Consequently, this study investigated the projected changes in drought frequenc...
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| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
IOP Publishing
2025-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Communications |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/addfad |
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| Summary: | Drought is a weather extreme of great concern owing to their impacts being intertwined with the water resources, agriculture and energy productions that contribute considerably to the economy and livelihood of a society. Consequently, this study investigated the projected changes in drought frequency, severity and duration under the mid and high-emission scenarios. The future changes in drought frequency present a mixed result under Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP)2-4.5 with an increase projected over Luzon and western Visayas Island in both the mid and Far-future. However, the frequency of drought appears to have significantly reduced under SSP5-8.5 (<24%) with the reduction larger in the Far-future compared to the mid-future. On the other hand, the duration is expected to reduce significantly over central Luzon and a longer drought is projected over northern Mindanao towards the end of the 21st century. During the mid-century, the drought intensity is anticipated to decrease in central Luzon, Zamboanga and Palawan islands and increase in Mindanao and western Visayas under SSP2-4.5. Similarly, the drought intensity is projected to further decrease in Visayas and Luzon islands while increasing in Palawan and Zamboanga islands. Analysis reveals that the population exposed to drought will increase across the Philippines for the two future periods compared to the reference period. Generally, exposure to moderate drought is large compared to other types of droughts for both historical, mid and end of the 21st century under the two combined SSP5-8.5:SSP5 and SSP2-4.5:SSP2 scenarios. Under SSP2-4.5 scenarios, the mid and end of the 21st century two targeted epochs, climate change and climate-population interaction effect are the primary contributors to exposure. Conversely, in SSP5-8.5, the contribution from climate effect dominates other contributors for population exposure during both the mid and end of the 21st century while the population effect contributes the least during the two periods. |
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| ISSN: | 2515-7620 |