Concrete Creep Prediction Based on Improved Machine Learning and Game Theory: Modeling and Analysis Methods

Understanding the impact of creep on the long-term mechanical features of concrete is crucial, and constructing an accurate prediction model is the key to exploring the development of concrete creep under long-term loads. Therefore, in this study, three machine learning (ML) models, a Support Vector...

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Main Authors: Wenchao Li, Houmin Li, Cai Liu, Kai Min
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: MDPI AG 2024-11-01
Series:Buildings
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Online Access:https://www.mdpi.com/2075-5309/14/11/3627
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author Wenchao Li
Houmin Li
Cai Liu
Kai Min
author_facet Wenchao Li
Houmin Li
Cai Liu
Kai Min
author_sort Wenchao Li
collection DOAJ
description Understanding the impact of creep on the long-term mechanical features of concrete is crucial, and constructing an accurate prediction model is the key to exploring the development of concrete creep under long-term loads. Therefore, in this study, three machine learning (ML) models, a Support Vector Machine (SVM), Random Forest (RF), and Extreme Gradient Boosting Machine (XGBoost), are constructed, and the Hybrid Snake Optimization Algorithm (HSOA) is proposed, which can reduce the risk of the ML model falling into the local optimum while improving its prediction performance. Simultaneously, the contributions of the input features are ranked, and the optimal model’s prediction outcomes are explained through SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP). The research results show that the optimized SVM, RF, and XGBoost models increase their accuracies on the test set by 9.927%, 9.58%, and 14.1%, respectively, and the XGBoost has the highest precision in forecasting the concrete creep. The verification results of four scenarios confirm that the optimized model can precisely capture the compliance changes in long-term creep, meeting the requirements for forecasting the nature of concrete creep.
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spelling doaj-art-e63e77051bd749e88d180fd5d9d657bf2025-08-20T01:53:44ZengMDPI AGBuildings2075-53092024-11-011411362710.3390/buildings14113627Concrete Creep Prediction Based on Improved Machine Learning and Game Theory: Modeling and Analysis MethodsWenchao Li0Houmin Li1Cai Liu2Kai Min3School of Civil Engineering, Architecture and the Environment, Hubei University of Technology, Wuhan 430068, ChinaSchool of Civil Engineering, Architecture and the Environment, Hubei University of Technology, Wuhan 430068, ChinaSchool of Civil Engineering, Architecture and the Environment, Hubei University of Technology, Wuhan 430068, ChinaSchool of Civil Engineering, Architecture and the Environment, Hubei University of Technology, Wuhan 430068, ChinaUnderstanding the impact of creep on the long-term mechanical features of concrete is crucial, and constructing an accurate prediction model is the key to exploring the development of concrete creep under long-term loads. Therefore, in this study, three machine learning (ML) models, a Support Vector Machine (SVM), Random Forest (RF), and Extreme Gradient Boosting Machine (XGBoost), are constructed, and the Hybrid Snake Optimization Algorithm (HSOA) is proposed, which can reduce the risk of the ML model falling into the local optimum while improving its prediction performance. Simultaneously, the contributions of the input features are ranked, and the optimal model’s prediction outcomes are explained through SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP). The research results show that the optimized SVM, RF, and XGBoost models increase their accuracies on the test set by 9.927%, 9.58%, and 14.1%, respectively, and the XGBoost has the highest precision in forecasting the concrete creep. The verification results of four scenarios confirm that the optimized model can precisely capture the compliance changes in long-term creep, meeting the requirements for forecasting the nature of concrete creep.https://www.mdpi.com/2075-5309/14/11/3627concretecreeppredictionmachine learningHSOA optimizationinterpretation
spellingShingle Wenchao Li
Houmin Li
Cai Liu
Kai Min
Concrete Creep Prediction Based on Improved Machine Learning and Game Theory: Modeling and Analysis Methods
Buildings
concrete
creep
prediction
machine learning
HSOA optimization
interpretation
title Concrete Creep Prediction Based on Improved Machine Learning and Game Theory: Modeling and Analysis Methods
title_full Concrete Creep Prediction Based on Improved Machine Learning and Game Theory: Modeling and Analysis Methods
title_fullStr Concrete Creep Prediction Based on Improved Machine Learning and Game Theory: Modeling and Analysis Methods
title_full_unstemmed Concrete Creep Prediction Based on Improved Machine Learning and Game Theory: Modeling and Analysis Methods
title_short Concrete Creep Prediction Based on Improved Machine Learning and Game Theory: Modeling and Analysis Methods
title_sort concrete creep prediction based on improved machine learning and game theory modeling and analysis methods
topic concrete
creep
prediction
machine learning
HSOA optimization
interpretation
url https://www.mdpi.com/2075-5309/14/11/3627
work_keys_str_mv AT wenchaoli concretecreeppredictionbasedonimprovedmachinelearningandgametheorymodelingandanalysismethods
AT houminli concretecreeppredictionbasedonimprovedmachinelearningandgametheorymodelingandanalysismethods
AT cailiu concretecreeppredictionbasedonimprovedmachinelearningandgametheorymodelingandanalysismethods
AT kaimin concretecreeppredictionbasedonimprovedmachinelearningandgametheorymodelingandanalysismethods