Graph-Based Prediction of Spatio-Temporal Vaccine Hesitancy From Insurance Claims Data
Growing vaccine hesitancy is contributing to the decline in immunization rates for highly contagious, vaccine-preventable childhood diseases. Therefore, there has been a significant interest in understanding how hesitancy is spreading at higher spatio-temporal resolutions, enabling more targeted int...
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| Format: | Article |
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IEEE
2025-01-01
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| Series: | IEEE Access |
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| Online Access: | https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/10924192/ |
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| author | Sifat Afroj Moon Rituparna Datta Tanvir Ferdousi Hannah Baek Abhijin Adiga Achla Marathe Anil Vullikanti |
| author_facet | Sifat Afroj Moon Rituparna Datta Tanvir Ferdousi Hannah Baek Abhijin Adiga Achla Marathe Anil Vullikanti |
| author_sort | Sifat Afroj Moon |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Growing vaccine hesitancy is contributing to the decline in immunization rates for highly contagious, vaccine-preventable childhood diseases. Therefore, there has been a significant interest in understanding how hesitancy is spreading at higher spatio-temporal resolutions, enabling more targeted interventions. Motivated by this, we study the problem of prediction of vaccine hesitancy at the ZIP Code level, referred to as the VaxHesitancy problem. A significant challenge for this problem is the lack of high-resolution data that indicates hesitancy. Here, we develop a hybrid VaxHesSTL framework that combines a Graph Neural Network (GNN) and a Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) to address the VaxHesitancy problem. The GNN uses a ZIP Code-level network to capture spatial signals from neighboring areas, while the RNN models the temporal dynamics present in the data. We train and evaluate VaxHesSTL using a large dataset, namely the All-Payer Claims Databases (APCD), for Virginia, consisting of insurance claims from over five million individuals for six years. We find that an aggregated contact network or graph, developed from a detailed activity-based population network, plays an important role in the performance of VaxHesSTL, compared to graph models based solely on spatial proximity. Experiments demonstrate that VaxHesSTL outperforms a range of state-of-the-art baselines, which rely solely on historical time series data without accounting for spatial relationships. Since hesitancy data at higher spatial resolution is often unavailable or hard to get, we incorporate an active learning approach with our VaxHesSTL framework to optimize the training set without compromising the prediction performance. We find that hesitancy data for only 18% of ZIP Codes selected by active learning allows us to forecast hesitancy for all the ZIP Codes in the Virginia. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-e6135edcc9914cd78cdfcbe1346fa77a |
| institution | DOAJ |
| issn | 2169-3536 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-01-01 |
| publisher | IEEE |
| record_format | Article |
| series | IEEE Access |
| spelling | doaj-art-e6135edcc9914cd78cdfcbe1346fa77a2025-08-20T02:54:26ZengIEEEIEEE Access2169-35362025-01-0113501065012110.1109/ACCESS.2025.355077510924192Graph-Based Prediction of Spatio-Temporal Vaccine Hesitancy From Insurance Claims DataSifat Afroj Moon0https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4496-8809Rituparna Datta1https://orcid.org/0009-0002-1830-614XTanvir Ferdousi2Hannah Baek3Abhijin Adiga4Achla Marathe5Anil Vullikanti6Computational Sciences and Engineering Division, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN, USADepartment of Computer Science, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, USABiocomplexity Institute (BI), University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, USABiocomplexity Institute (BI), University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, USABiocomplexity Institute (BI), University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, USABiocomplexity Institute (BI), University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, USABiocomplexity Institute (BI), University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, USAGrowing vaccine hesitancy is contributing to the decline in immunization rates for highly contagious, vaccine-preventable childhood diseases. Therefore, there has been a significant interest in understanding how hesitancy is spreading at higher spatio-temporal resolutions, enabling more targeted interventions. Motivated by this, we study the problem of prediction of vaccine hesitancy at the ZIP Code level, referred to as the VaxHesitancy problem. A significant challenge for this problem is the lack of high-resolution data that indicates hesitancy. Here, we develop a hybrid VaxHesSTL framework that combines a Graph Neural Network (GNN) and a Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) to address the VaxHesitancy problem. The GNN uses a ZIP Code-level network to capture spatial signals from neighboring areas, while the RNN models the temporal dynamics present in the data. We train and evaluate VaxHesSTL using a large dataset, namely the All-Payer Claims Databases (APCD), for Virginia, consisting of insurance claims from over five million individuals for six years. We find that an aggregated contact network or graph, developed from a detailed activity-based population network, plays an important role in the performance of VaxHesSTL, compared to graph models based solely on spatial proximity. Experiments demonstrate that VaxHesSTL outperforms a range of state-of-the-art baselines, which rely solely on historical time series data without accounting for spatial relationships. Since hesitancy data at higher spatial resolution is often unavailable or hard to get, we incorporate an active learning approach with our VaxHesSTL framework to optimize the training set without compromising the prediction performance. We find that hesitancy data for only 18% of ZIP Codes selected by active learning allows us to forecast hesitancy for all the ZIP Codes in the Virginia.https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/10924192/Graph neural networkrecurrent neural networkspatio-temporal problempredictionclusteringclaim data |
| spellingShingle | Sifat Afroj Moon Rituparna Datta Tanvir Ferdousi Hannah Baek Abhijin Adiga Achla Marathe Anil Vullikanti Graph-Based Prediction of Spatio-Temporal Vaccine Hesitancy From Insurance Claims Data IEEE Access Graph neural network recurrent neural network spatio-temporal problem prediction clustering claim data |
| title | Graph-Based Prediction of Spatio-Temporal Vaccine Hesitancy From Insurance Claims Data |
| title_full | Graph-Based Prediction of Spatio-Temporal Vaccine Hesitancy From Insurance Claims Data |
| title_fullStr | Graph-Based Prediction of Spatio-Temporal Vaccine Hesitancy From Insurance Claims Data |
| title_full_unstemmed | Graph-Based Prediction of Spatio-Temporal Vaccine Hesitancy From Insurance Claims Data |
| title_short | Graph-Based Prediction of Spatio-Temporal Vaccine Hesitancy From Insurance Claims Data |
| title_sort | graph based prediction of spatio temporal vaccine hesitancy from insurance claims data |
| topic | Graph neural network recurrent neural network spatio-temporal problem prediction clustering claim data |
| url | https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/10924192/ |
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