Aligning the Western Balkans power sectors with the European Green Deal

Located in Southern Europe, the Drina River Basin is shared between Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, and Serbia. The power sectors of the three countries have an exceptionally high dependence on coal for power generation. In this paper, we analyse different development pathways for achieving clim...

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Main Authors: Emir Fejzić, Taco Niet, Cameron Wade, Will Usher
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: IOP Publishing 2024-01-01
Series:Environmental Research Communications
Subjects:
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/ad8ca4
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author Emir Fejzić
Taco Niet
Cameron Wade
Will Usher
author_facet Emir Fejzić
Taco Niet
Cameron Wade
Will Usher
author_sort Emir Fejzić
collection DOAJ
description Located in Southern Europe, the Drina River Basin is shared between Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, and Serbia. The power sectors of the three countries have an exceptionally high dependence on coal for power generation. In this paper, we analyse different development pathways for achieving climate neutrality in these countries and explore the potential of variable renewable energy (VRE) and its role in power sector decarbonization. We investigate whether hydro and non-hydro renewables can enable a net-zero transition by 2050 and how VRE might affect the hydropower cascade shared by the three countries. The Open-Source Energy Modelling System (OSeMOSYS) was used to develop a model representation of the countries’ power sectors. Findings show that the renewable potential of the countries is a significant 94.4 GW. This potential is 68% higher than previous assessments have shown. Under an Emission Limit scenario assuming net zero by 2050, 17% of this VRE potential is utilized to support the decarbonization of the power sectors. Additional findings show a limited impact of VRE technologies on total power generation output from the hydropower cascade. However, increased solar deployment shifts the operation of the cascade to increased short-term balancing, moving from baseload to more responsive power generation patterns. Prolonged use of thermal power plants is observed under scenarios assuming high wholesale electricity prices, leading to increased emissions. Results from scenarios with low cost of electricity trade suggest power sector developments that lead to decreased energy security.
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spelling doaj-art-e5acf7df4a59492a8bc3a406599ee6a22025-08-20T02:14:53ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Communications2515-76202024-01-0161111500810.1088/2515-7620/ad8ca4Aligning the Western Balkans power sectors with the European Green DealEmir Fejzić0https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2489-8455Taco Niet1https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0266-2705Cameron Wade2https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2680-6881Will Usher3https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9367-1791KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Energy Technology , Energy Systems, Brinellvägen 68, SE-100 44 Stockholm, SwedenSimon Fraser University , School of Sustainable Energy Engineering, 10285 University Drive, Surrey, BC V3T 4B7, CanadaSutubra Research Inc . 5608 Morris St, Halifax, Nova Scotia. B3J 1C2, CanadaKTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Energy Technology , Energy Systems, Brinellvägen 68, SE-100 44 Stockholm, SwedenLocated in Southern Europe, the Drina River Basin is shared between Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, and Serbia. The power sectors of the three countries have an exceptionally high dependence on coal for power generation. In this paper, we analyse different development pathways for achieving climate neutrality in these countries and explore the potential of variable renewable energy (VRE) and its role in power sector decarbonization. We investigate whether hydro and non-hydro renewables can enable a net-zero transition by 2050 and how VRE might affect the hydropower cascade shared by the three countries. The Open-Source Energy Modelling System (OSeMOSYS) was used to develop a model representation of the countries’ power sectors. Findings show that the renewable potential of the countries is a significant 94.4 GW. This potential is 68% higher than previous assessments have shown. Under an Emission Limit scenario assuming net zero by 2050, 17% of this VRE potential is utilized to support the decarbonization of the power sectors. Additional findings show a limited impact of VRE technologies on total power generation output from the hydropower cascade. However, increased solar deployment shifts the operation of the cascade to increased short-term balancing, moving from baseload to more responsive power generation patterns. Prolonged use of thermal power plants is observed under scenarios assuming high wholesale electricity prices, leading to increased emissions. Results from scenarios with low cost of electricity trade suggest power sector developments that lead to decreased energy security.https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/ad8ca4OSeMOSYSenergy system modellingopen source softwarevariable renewable energyhydropower
spellingShingle Emir Fejzić
Taco Niet
Cameron Wade
Will Usher
Aligning the Western Balkans power sectors with the European Green Deal
Environmental Research Communications
OSeMOSYS
energy system modelling
open source software
variable renewable energy
hydropower
title Aligning the Western Balkans power sectors with the European Green Deal
title_full Aligning the Western Balkans power sectors with the European Green Deal
title_fullStr Aligning the Western Balkans power sectors with the European Green Deal
title_full_unstemmed Aligning the Western Balkans power sectors with the European Green Deal
title_short Aligning the Western Balkans power sectors with the European Green Deal
title_sort aligning the western balkans power sectors with the european green deal
topic OSeMOSYS
energy system modelling
open source software
variable renewable energy
hydropower
url https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/ad8ca4
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