Enhancing regional disease burden estimates: insights from the comparison of Global Burden of Disease and China’s notifiable infectious diseases data with policy implications (2010–2020)
Abstract Background The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study offers influential Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) estimates for various diseases. However, discrepancies with national surveillance data raise concerns about accuracy. This study aims to promote the deep integration of the GBD mode...
Saved in:
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
BMC
2025-08-01
|
| Series: | Infectious Diseases of Poverty |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1186/s40249-025-01351-3 |
| Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
| _version_ | 1849341709781041152 |
|---|---|
| author | Zi-Yu Zhao Jiao-Jiao Li Han-Qi Ouyang Wei-Hao Li Sheng-Kai Huang Okugbe Ebiotubo Ohore Lu Wang Jürg Utzinger Guo-Jing Yang |
| author_facet | Zi-Yu Zhao Jiao-Jiao Li Han-Qi Ouyang Wei-Hao Li Sheng-Kai Huang Okugbe Ebiotubo Ohore Lu Wang Jürg Utzinger Guo-Jing Yang |
| author_sort | Zi-Yu Zhao |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Background The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study offers influential Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) estimates for various diseases. However, discrepancies with national surveillance data raise concerns about accuracy. This study aims to promote the deep integration of the GBD model with localized data and facilitate the development of region-specific models. Methods Data for 14 notifiable infectious diseases (NIDs), grouped into intestinal infectious diseases, respiratory infectious diseases, and sexually transmitted and blood-borne infections, were obtained from the Data-center of China Public Health Science. DALYs based on national surveillance data (2010–2020) were calculated using DALY formulas, and discrepancies with GBD estimates were quantified through ratio comparisons. A historical timeline map highlighted key infectious disease control policies and certified disease elimination events in China. Results National surveillance data show a decrease in DALYs for 14 NIDs in China, from 6,529,124.62 person-years in 2010 to 6,326,497.18 person-years in 2020. Among them, sexually transmitted and blood-borne infections have the highest burden, with 78% of DALYs attributed to hepatitis B (4,864,028.29 person-years). Respiratory infectious diseases follow, with 99% of DALYs from TB (394,927.70 person-years). Intestinal infectious diseases have the relative lightest burden, with 45% of DALYs from hepatitis E (496.49 person-years). Over 11 years, 9 of the 14 NIDs showed a downward trend. Comparisons reveal that DALYs based on national surveillance data are lower than GBD 2021 estimates. Conclusions Considerable differences exist between the GBD estimates and national surveillance data regarding the burden of 14 NIDs in China. Therefore, strengthening national reporting systems and integrating localized data with the GBD model is essential for more accurate disease burden assessments and effective response strategies. Despite significant progress in infectious disease control, China still faces substantial challenges in domestic disease elimination. Graphical Abstract |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-e59b0a77476245b1911adc448e1a2529 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2049-9957 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-08-01 |
| publisher | BMC |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Infectious Diseases of Poverty |
| spelling | doaj-art-e59b0a77476245b1911adc448e1a25292025-08-20T03:43:34ZengBMCInfectious Diseases of Poverty2049-99572025-08-0114111410.1186/s40249-025-01351-3Enhancing regional disease burden estimates: insights from the comparison of Global Burden of Disease and China’s notifiable infectious diseases data with policy implications (2010–2020)Zi-Yu Zhao0Jiao-Jiao Li1Han-Qi Ouyang2Wei-Hao Li3Sheng-Kai Huang4Okugbe Ebiotubo Ohore5Lu Wang6Jürg Utzinger7Guo-Jing Yang8School of Public Health, Hainan Medical UniversitySchool of Public Health, Hainan Medical UniversitySchool of Public Health, Hainan Medical UniversitySchool of Public Health, Hainan Medical UniversityDepartment of Infectious Diseases, the First Affiliated Hospital of Hainan Medical UniversitySchool of Public Health, Hainan Medical UniversityChinese Center for Disease Control and PreventionSwiss Tropical and Public Health Institute (Swiss TPH), University of BaselSchool of Public Health, Hainan Medical UniversityAbstract Background The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study offers influential Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) estimates for various diseases. However, discrepancies with national surveillance data raise concerns about accuracy. This study aims to promote the deep integration of the GBD model with localized data and facilitate the development of region-specific models. Methods Data for 14 notifiable infectious diseases (NIDs), grouped into intestinal infectious diseases, respiratory infectious diseases, and sexually transmitted and blood-borne infections, were obtained from the Data-center of China Public Health Science. DALYs based on national surveillance data (2010–2020) were calculated using DALY formulas, and discrepancies with GBD estimates were quantified through ratio comparisons. A historical timeline map highlighted key infectious disease control policies and certified disease elimination events in China. Results National surveillance data show a decrease in DALYs for 14 NIDs in China, from 6,529,124.62 person-years in 2010 to 6,326,497.18 person-years in 2020. Among them, sexually transmitted and blood-borne infections have the highest burden, with 78% of DALYs attributed to hepatitis B (4,864,028.29 person-years). Respiratory infectious diseases follow, with 99% of DALYs from TB (394,927.70 person-years). Intestinal infectious diseases have the relative lightest burden, with 45% of DALYs from hepatitis E (496.49 person-years). Over 11 years, 9 of the 14 NIDs showed a downward trend. Comparisons reveal that DALYs based on national surveillance data are lower than GBD 2021 estimates. Conclusions Considerable differences exist between the GBD estimates and national surveillance data regarding the burden of 14 NIDs in China. Therefore, strengthening national reporting systems and integrating localized data with the GBD model is essential for more accurate disease burden assessments and effective response strategies. Despite significant progress in infectious disease control, China still faces substantial challenges in domestic disease elimination. Graphical Abstracthttps://doi.org/10.1186/s40249-025-01351-3Notifiable infectious diseasesDisability-adjusted life yearsGlobal Burden of Disease study 2021ChinaControl policy |
| spellingShingle | Zi-Yu Zhao Jiao-Jiao Li Han-Qi Ouyang Wei-Hao Li Sheng-Kai Huang Okugbe Ebiotubo Ohore Lu Wang Jürg Utzinger Guo-Jing Yang Enhancing regional disease burden estimates: insights from the comparison of Global Burden of Disease and China’s notifiable infectious diseases data with policy implications (2010–2020) Infectious Diseases of Poverty Notifiable infectious diseases Disability-adjusted life years Global Burden of Disease study 2021 China Control policy |
| title | Enhancing regional disease burden estimates: insights from the comparison of Global Burden of Disease and China’s notifiable infectious diseases data with policy implications (2010–2020) |
| title_full | Enhancing regional disease burden estimates: insights from the comparison of Global Burden of Disease and China’s notifiable infectious diseases data with policy implications (2010–2020) |
| title_fullStr | Enhancing regional disease burden estimates: insights from the comparison of Global Burden of Disease and China’s notifiable infectious diseases data with policy implications (2010–2020) |
| title_full_unstemmed | Enhancing regional disease burden estimates: insights from the comparison of Global Burden of Disease and China’s notifiable infectious diseases data with policy implications (2010–2020) |
| title_short | Enhancing regional disease burden estimates: insights from the comparison of Global Burden of Disease and China’s notifiable infectious diseases data with policy implications (2010–2020) |
| title_sort | enhancing regional disease burden estimates insights from the comparison of global burden of disease and china s notifiable infectious diseases data with policy implications 2010 2020 |
| topic | Notifiable infectious diseases Disability-adjusted life years Global Burden of Disease study 2021 China Control policy |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1186/s40249-025-01351-3 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT ziyuzhao enhancingregionaldiseaseburdenestimatesinsightsfromthecomparisonofglobalburdenofdiseaseandchinasnotifiableinfectiousdiseasesdatawithpolicyimplications20102020 AT jiaojiaoli enhancingregionaldiseaseburdenestimatesinsightsfromthecomparisonofglobalburdenofdiseaseandchinasnotifiableinfectiousdiseasesdatawithpolicyimplications20102020 AT hanqiouyang enhancingregionaldiseaseburdenestimatesinsightsfromthecomparisonofglobalburdenofdiseaseandchinasnotifiableinfectiousdiseasesdatawithpolicyimplications20102020 AT weihaoli enhancingregionaldiseaseburdenestimatesinsightsfromthecomparisonofglobalburdenofdiseaseandchinasnotifiableinfectiousdiseasesdatawithpolicyimplications20102020 AT shengkaihuang enhancingregionaldiseaseburdenestimatesinsightsfromthecomparisonofglobalburdenofdiseaseandchinasnotifiableinfectiousdiseasesdatawithpolicyimplications20102020 AT okugbeebiotuboohore enhancingregionaldiseaseburdenestimatesinsightsfromthecomparisonofglobalburdenofdiseaseandchinasnotifiableinfectiousdiseasesdatawithpolicyimplications20102020 AT luwang enhancingregionaldiseaseburdenestimatesinsightsfromthecomparisonofglobalburdenofdiseaseandchinasnotifiableinfectiousdiseasesdatawithpolicyimplications20102020 AT jurgutzinger enhancingregionaldiseaseburdenestimatesinsightsfromthecomparisonofglobalburdenofdiseaseandchinasnotifiableinfectiousdiseasesdatawithpolicyimplications20102020 AT guojingyang enhancingregionaldiseaseburdenestimatesinsightsfromthecomparisonofglobalburdenofdiseaseandchinasnotifiableinfectiousdiseasesdatawithpolicyimplications20102020 |