Substantial increase in wildfire danger conditions under anthropogenic climate change in Southwest France
Abstract Wildfires are an increasing concern under climate change, which may raise the frequency and intensity of fire-prone conditions. Here we assess summer wildfire danger evolution in Southwestern France under three climate scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Nature Portfolio
2025-07-01
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| Series: | npj Natural Hazards |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s44304-025-00124-0 |
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| author | Marine Lanet Laurent Li Hervé Le Treut |
| author_facet | Marine Lanet Laurent Li Hervé Le Treut |
| author_sort | Marine Lanet |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Wildfires are an increasing concern under climate change, which may raise the frequency and intensity of fire-prone conditions. Here we assess summer wildfire danger evolution in Southwestern France under three climate scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), using six climate models. Alongside the Fire Weather Index (FWI), widely used by operational services to assess daily fire danger, a complementary index, SM6-T3-VPD3 (soil moisture integrated backward to 6 months, surface air temperature and vapour pressure deficit backward to 3 months), is also used to assess prolonged hot and dry conditions. Results indicate that under the highest emission scenario, the probability of extreme compound hot and dry events increases from 0.04 to 0.49 in August during the twenty-first century. Even under the lowest emission scenario, their likelihood increases from 0.03 to 0.15. Therefore, this study underscores the importance and complementarity of mitigation and adaptation strategies in addressing wildfire danger. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-e59a058dc54f4b63ab9518b6e240c2fa |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2948-2100 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-07-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | npj Natural Hazards |
| spelling | doaj-art-e59a058dc54f4b63ab9518b6e240c2fa2025-08-20T04:01:43ZengNature Portfolionpj Natural Hazards2948-21002025-07-012111410.1038/s44304-025-00124-0Substantial increase in wildfire danger conditions under anthropogenic climate change in Southwest FranceMarine Lanet0Laurent Li1Hervé Le Treut2LMD/IPSL, Sorbonne Université, ENS, Université PSL, École Polytechnique, Institut Polytechnique de Paris, CNRSLMD/IPSL, Sorbonne Université, ENS, Université PSL, École Polytechnique, Institut Polytechnique de Paris, CNRSInstitut Pierre-Simon Laplace, Sorbonne UniversitéAbstract Wildfires are an increasing concern under climate change, which may raise the frequency and intensity of fire-prone conditions. Here we assess summer wildfire danger evolution in Southwestern France under three climate scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), using six climate models. Alongside the Fire Weather Index (FWI), widely used by operational services to assess daily fire danger, a complementary index, SM6-T3-VPD3 (soil moisture integrated backward to 6 months, surface air temperature and vapour pressure deficit backward to 3 months), is also used to assess prolonged hot and dry conditions. Results indicate that under the highest emission scenario, the probability of extreme compound hot and dry events increases from 0.04 to 0.49 in August during the twenty-first century. Even under the lowest emission scenario, their likelihood increases from 0.03 to 0.15. Therefore, this study underscores the importance and complementarity of mitigation and adaptation strategies in addressing wildfire danger.https://doi.org/10.1038/s44304-025-00124-0 |
| spellingShingle | Marine Lanet Laurent Li Hervé Le Treut Substantial increase in wildfire danger conditions under anthropogenic climate change in Southwest France npj Natural Hazards |
| title | Substantial increase in wildfire danger conditions under anthropogenic climate change in Southwest France |
| title_full | Substantial increase in wildfire danger conditions under anthropogenic climate change in Southwest France |
| title_fullStr | Substantial increase in wildfire danger conditions under anthropogenic climate change in Southwest France |
| title_full_unstemmed | Substantial increase in wildfire danger conditions under anthropogenic climate change in Southwest France |
| title_short | Substantial increase in wildfire danger conditions under anthropogenic climate change in Southwest France |
| title_sort | substantial increase in wildfire danger conditions under anthropogenic climate change in southwest france |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s44304-025-00124-0 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT marinelanet substantialincreaseinwildfiredangerconditionsunderanthropogenicclimatechangeinsouthwestfrance AT laurentli substantialincreaseinwildfiredangerconditionsunderanthropogenicclimatechangeinsouthwestfrance AT herveletreut substantialincreaseinwildfiredangerconditionsunderanthropogenicclimatechangeinsouthwestfrance |