Estimating the local-level child full polio vaccination rates in Ethiopia using a hierarchical Bayes small area estimation approach

Abstract Vaccination is one of the most effective, affordable, and life-saving medical interventions ever created. Child vaccination is fundamental to building a healthy and welfare society, which is crucial in 2063 African and 2030 global agendas. This study combines the 2019 Mini Ethiopian Demogra...

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Main Authors: Seyifemickael Amare Yilema, Yegnanew A. Shiferaw, Haile Mekonnen Fenta, Alebachew Taye Belay
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Springer 2025-05-01
Series:Discover Public Health
Subjects:
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1186/s12982-025-00695-3
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author Seyifemickael Amare Yilema
Yegnanew A. Shiferaw
Haile Mekonnen Fenta
Alebachew Taye Belay
author_facet Seyifemickael Amare Yilema
Yegnanew A. Shiferaw
Haile Mekonnen Fenta
Alebachew Taye Belay
author_sort Seyifemickael Amare Yilema
collection DOAJ
description Abstract Vaccination is one of the most effective, affordable, and life-saving medical interventions ever created. Child vaccination is fundamental to building a healthy and welfare society, which is crucial in 2063 African and 2030 global agendas. This study combines the 2019 Mini Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey (EDHS) with the 2007 population and housing census datasets to employ the hierarchical Bayes (HB) small area estimation (SAE) approach for estimating local-level child vaccination rates. In the HB SAE framework, the deviance information criterion (DIC) was used to select the best candidate model among the three different models fitted. The logistic normal mixed model with known sampling variance was chosen over the other two models (Fay-Herriot model and log-normal mixed model). The mean coefficient of variation (CV) for direct survey-based estimates is 44.41, which is higher than that for the model-based HB estimates at 36.40. Similarly, the root mean square errors (RMSE) of direct survey estimates are greater than those of the corresponding model-based estimates. Therefore, the results suggest that the HB estimates show improvement over the survey-based estimates. This finding also contributes to the sustainable development goal for health (SDG3), which aims to ensure healthy lives and promote well-being for people around the globe.
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spelling doaj-art-e5840bd5210b41c291d52dc7ccb9a7212025-08-20T03:08:24ZengSpringerDiscover Public Health3005-07742025-05-0122111410.1186/s12982-025-00695-3Estimating the local-level child full polio vaccination rates in Ethiopia using a hierarchical Bayes small area estimation approachSeyifemickael Amare Yilema0Yegnanew A. Shiferaw1Haile Mekonnen Fenta2Alebachew Taye Belay3Department of Statistics, College of Natural and Computational Science, Debre Tabor UniversityDepartment of Statistics, University of JohannesburgDepartment of Statistics, College of Science, Bahir Dar UniversityDepartment of Statistics, College of Natural and Computational Science, Debre Tabor UniversityAbstract Vaccination is one of the most effective, affordable, and life-saving medical interventions ever created. Child vaccination is fundamental to building a healthy and welfare society, which is crucial in 2063 African and 2030 global agendas. This study combines the 2019 Mini Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey (EDHS) with the 2007 population and housing census datasets to employ the hierarchical Bayes (HB) small area estimation (SAE) approach for estimating local-level child vaccination rates. In the HB SAE framework, the deviance information criterion (DIC) was used to select the best candidate model among the three different models fitted. The logistic normal mixed model with known sampling variance was chosen over the other two models (Fay-Herriot model and log-normal mixed model). The mean coefficient of variation (CV) for direct survey-based estimates is 44.41, which is higher than that for the model-based HB estimates at 36.40. Similarly, the root mean square errors (RMSE) of direct survey estimates are greater than those of the corresponding model-based estimates. Therefore, the results suggest that the HB estimates show improvement over the survey-based estimates. This finding also contributes to the sustainable development goal for health (SDG3), which aims to ensure healthy lives and promote well-being for people around the globe.https://doi.org/10.1186/s12982-025-00695-3VaccinationPolioChildhoodHierarchical BayesSmall area estimation
spellingShingle Seyifemickael Amare Yilema
Yegnanew A. Shiferaw
Haile Mekonnen Fenta
Alebachew Taye Belay
Estimating the local-level child full polio vaccination rates in Ethiopia using a hierarchical Bayes small area estimation approach
Discover Public Health
Vaccination
Polio
Childhood
Hierarchical Bayes
Small area estimation
title Estimating the local-level child full polio vaccination rates in Ethiopia using a hierarchical Bayes small area estimation approach
title_full Estimating the local-level child full polio vaccination rates in Ethiopia using a hierarchical Bayes small area estimation approach
title_fullStr Estimating the local-level child full polio vaccination rates in Ethiopia using a hierarchical Bayes small area estimation approach
title_full_unstemmed Estimating the local-level child full polio vaccination rates in Ethiopia using a hierarchical Bayes small area estimation approach
title_short Estimating the local-level child full polio vaccination rates in Ethiopia using a hierarchical Bayes small area estimation approach
title_sort estimating the local level child full polio vaccination rates in ethiopia using a hierarchical bayes small area estimation approach
topic Vaccination
Polio
Childhood
Hierarchical Bayes
Small area estimation
url https://doi.org/10.1186/s12982-025-00695-3
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