Likelihood testing of seismicity‐based rate forecasts of induced earthquakes in Oklahoma and Kansas
Abstract Likelihood testing of induced earthquakes in Oklahoma and Kansas has identified the parameters that optimize the forecasting ability of smoothed seismicity models and quantified the recent temporal stability of the spatial seismicity patterns. Use of the most recent 1 year period of earthqu...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2016-05-01
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| Series: | Geophysical Research Letters |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL068948 |
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| author | M. P. Moschetti S. M. Hoover C. S. Mueller |
| author_facet | M. P. Moschetti S. M. Hoover C. S. Mueller |
| author_sort | M. P. Moschetti |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Likelihood testing of induced earthquakes in Oklahoma and Kansas has identified the parameters that optimize the forecasting ability of smoothed seismicity models and quantified the recent temporal stability of the spatial seismicity patterns. Use of the most recent 1 year period of earthquake data and use of 10–20 km smoothing distances produced the greatest likelihood. The likelihood that the locations of January–June 2015 earthquakes were consistent with optimized forecasts decayed with increasing elapsed time between the catalogs used for model development and testing. Likelihood tests with two additional sets of earthquakes from 2014 exhibit a strong sensitivity of the rate of decay to the smoothing distance. Marked reductions in likelihood are caused by the nonstationarity of the induced earthquake locations. Our results indicate a multiple‐fold benefit from smoothed seismicity models in developing short‐term earthquake rate forecasts for induced earthquakes in Oklahoma and Kansas, relative to the use of seismic source zones. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-e51518515de14840a00cac817ab2ff5c |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 0094-8276 1944-8007 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2016-05-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Geophysical Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj-art-e51518515de14840a00cac817ab2ff5c2025-08-20T01:51:46ZengWileyGeophysical Research Letters0094-82761944-80072016-05-0143104913492110.1002/2016GL068948Likelihood testing of seismicity‐based rate forecasts of induced earthquakes in Oklahoma and KansasM. P. Moschetti0S. M. Hoover1C. S. Mueller2U.S. Geological Survey Golden Colorado USAU.S. Geological Survey Golden Colorado USAU.S. Geological Survey Golden Colorado USAAbstract Likelihood testing of induced earthquakes in Oklahoma and Kansas has identified the parameters that optimize the forecasting ability of smoothed seismicity models and quantified the recent temporal stability of the spatial seismicity patterns. Use of the most recent 1 year period of earthquake data and use of 10–20 km smoothing distances produced the greatest likelihood. The likelihood that the locations of January–June 2015 earthquakes were consistent with optimized forecasts decayed with increasing elapsed time between the catalogs used for model development and testing. Likelihood tests with two additional sets of earthquakes from 2014 exhibit a strong sensitivity of the rate of decay to the smoothing distance. Marked reductions in likelihood are caused by the nonstationarity of the induced earthquake locations. Our results indicate a multiple‐fold benefit from smoothed seismicity models in developing short‐term earthquake rate forecasts for induced earthquakes in Oklahoma and Kansas, relative to the use of seismic source zones.https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL068948induced seismicityearthquake rate forecastlikelihood testing |
| spellingShingle | M. P. Moschetti S. M. Hoover C. S. Mueller Likelihood testing of seismicity‐based rate forecasts of induced earthquakes in Oklahoma and Kansas Geophysical Research Letters induced seismicity earthquake rate forecast likelihood testing |
| title | Likelihood testing of seismicity‐based rate forecasts of induced earthquakes in Oklahoma and Kansas |
| title_full | Likelihood testing of seismicity‐based rate forecasts of induced earthquakes in Oklahoma and Kansas |
| title_fullStr | Likelihood testing of seismicity‐based rate forecasts of induced earthquakes in Oklahoma and Kansas |
| title_full_unstemmed | Likelihood testing of seismicity‐based rate forecasts of induced earthquakes in Oklahoma and Kansas |
| title_short | Likelihood testing of seismicity‐based rate forecasts of induced earthquakes in Oklahoma and Kansas |
| title_sort | likelihood testing of seismicity based rate forecasts of induced earthquakes in oklahoma and kansas |
| topic | induced seismicity earthquake rate forecast likelihood testing |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL068948 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT mpmoschetti likelihoodtestingofseismicitybasedrateforecastsofinducedearthquakesinoklahomaandkansas AT smhoover likelihoodtestingofseismicitybasedrateforecastsofinducedearthquakesinoklahomaandkansas AT csmueller likelihoodtestingofseismicitybasedrateforecastsofinducedearthquakesinoklahomaandkansas |