Bayesian multiple changing-points detection

This study investigated the application of Bayesian multiple change-point detection techniques in the context of piecewise polynomial signals. Given the limited number of existing methodologies for identifying change-points in such signals, we proposed an objective Bayesian change-point detection ap...

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Main Authors: Sang Gil Kang, Woo Dong Lee, Yongku Kim
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: AIMS Press 2025-03-01
Series:AIMS Mathematics
Subjects:
Online Access:https://www.aimspress.com/article/doi/10.3934/math.2025216
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author Sang Gil Kang
Woo Dong Lee
Yongku Kim
author_facet Sang Gil Kang
Woo Dong Lee
Yongku Kim
author_sort Sang Gil Kang
collection DOAJ
description This study investigated the application of Bayesian multiple change-point detection techniques in the context of piecewise polynomial signals. Given the limited number of existing methodologies for identifying change-points in such signals, we proposed an objective Bayesian change-point detection approach that accommodated heterogeneous error distributions. Our methodology was grounded in a piecewise polynomial regression framework and employed binary segmentation. Initially, we identified change-points across various signals using Bayesian binary segmentation. Subsequently, we applied Bayesian model selection to ascertain the most suitable polynomial order for the identified segments. This approach facilitated a change-point detection method that minimized reliance on subjective inputs. We incorporated intrinsic priors that allowed for the formulation of Bayes factors and model selection probabilities. To evaluate the efficacy of the proposed change-point detection techniques, we conducted a simulation study alongside two empirical case studies: one involving the Goddard Institute for space studies surface temperature analysis and the other concerning the daily closing stock prices of Samsung Electronics Co.
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spelling doaj-art-e502c1b8b06e44fb9099af5d9c0223952025-08-20T02:26:19ZengAIMS PressAIMS Mathematics2473-69882025-03-011034662470810.3934/math.2025216Bayesian multiple changing-points detectionSang Gil Kang0Woo Dong Lee1Yongku Kim2Department of Data Science, Sangji University, Wonju, KoreaDepartment of Self-Design Convergence, Daegu Haany University, Gyeongsan, KoreaDepartment of Statistics, Kyungpook National University, Daegu, KoreaThis study investigated the application of Bayesian multiple change-point detection techniques in the context of piecewise polynomial signals. Given the limited number of existing methodologies for identifying change-points in such signals, we proposed an objective Bayesian change-point detection approach that accommodated heterogeneous error distributions. Our methodology was grounded in a piecewise polynomial regression framework and employed binary segmentation. Initially, we identified change-points across various signals using Bayesian binary segmentation. Subsequently, we applied Bayesian model selection to ascertain the most suitable polynomial order for the identified segments. This approach facilitated a change-point detection method that minimized reliance on subjective inputs. We incorporated intrinsic priors that allowed for the formulation of Bayes factors and model selection probabilities. To evaluate the efficacy of the proposed change-point detection techniques, we conducted a simulation study alongside two empirical case studies: one involving the Goddard Institute for space studies surface temperature analysis and the other concerning the daily closing stock prices of Samsung Electronics Co.https://www.aimspress.com/article/doi/10.3934/math.2025216binary segmentationchange-points detectionmodel selectionpiecewise polynomial signals
spellingShingle Sang Gil Kang
Woo Dong Lee
Yongku Kim
Bayesian multiple changing-points detection
AIMS Mathematics
binary segmentation
change-points detection
model selection
piecewise polynomial signals
title Bayesian multiple changing-points detection
title_full Bayesian multiple changing-points detection
title_fullStr Bayesian multiple changing-points detection
title_full_unstemmed Bayesian multiple changing-points detection
title_short Bayesian multiple changing-points detection
title_sort bayesian multiple changing points detection
topic binary segmentation
change-points detection
model selection
piecewise polynomial signals
url https://www.aimspress.com/article/doi/10.3934/math.2025216
work_keys_str_mv AT sanggilkang bayesianmultiplechangingpointsdetection
AT woodonglee bayesianmultiplechangingpointsdetection
AT yongkukim bayesianmultiplechangingpointsdetection