Unseasonal respiratory syncytial virus epidemics during the COVID-19 pandemic: Relationship between climatic factors and epidemic strain switching

Unseasonal respiratory syncytial virus epidemics during the COVID-19 pandemic: Relationship between climatic factors and epidemic strain switching

Objectives: The COVID-19 pandemic has altered respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) epidemic patterns. However, the influence of climatic and virological factors on RSV outbreaks remains unclear. We examined RSV incidence in Okinawa, Japan; Taiwan, China; and Florida, USA before and after the COVID-19 p...

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Main Authors: Akira Shinzato, Kenji Hibiya, Naoya Nishiyama, Nanae Ikemiyagi, Wakako Arakaki, Wakaki Kami, Daijiro Nabeya, Shuhei Ideguchi, Hideta Nakamura, Makoto Furugen, Kazuya Miyagi, Masashi Nakamatsu, Shusaku Haranaga, Takeshi Kinjo, Jiro Fujita, Koshi Nakamura, Kazuko Yamamoto
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Elsevier 2025-05-01
Series:International Journal of Infectious Diseases
Subjects:
Respiratory syncytial virus
COVID-19
Time-series analysis
Human mobility
Climate
Volumetric humidity
Online Access:http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1201971225000566
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Summary:Objectives: The COVID-19 pandemic has altered respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) epidemic patterns. However, the influence of climatic and virological factors on RSV outbreaks remains unclear. We examined RSV incidence in Okinawa, Japan; Taiwan, China; and Florida, USA before and after the COVID-19 pandemic, focusing on the effects of population mobility and climate. Methods: We analysed correlations among RSV incidence, human mobility, and climate before and after the pandemic. Additionally, we conducted a phylogenetic analysis of the second variable region of RSV G proteins using viral genomes isolated from patients with acute respiratory tract infections in Okinawa. Results: Annual RSV epidemics in Okinawa were not correlated with post-pandemic human mobility. The temperature and humidity ranges at the onset of RSV epidemics differed between the pre- and post-pandemic periods, with decreased standard deviations. Genetic analysis of RSV strains from 2020 to 2022 revealed a cluster with low genetic diversity, which differed markedly from pre-2019 and 2023 prevalent strains. Conclusion: Reduced human migration led to an RSV epidemic caused by an indigenous endemic strain, highlighting the natural relationship between epidemics and climatic factors. These findings could aid in developing effective prediction and control programs for RSV epidemics and optimising vaccine programs.
ISSN:1201-9712

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