VECTOR AUTOREGRESSIVE WITH OUTLIER DETECTION ON RAINFALL AND WIND SPEED DATA

Vector Autoregressive (VAR) is a multivariate time series model that analyzes more than one variable where each variable in the model is endogenous. VAR is one of the models used in forecasting rainfall and wind speed. In observations of rainfall and wind speed, there are usually a series of events...

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Main Authors: Lisa Lestari, Evy Sulistianingsih, Hendra Perdana
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Universitas Pattimura 2024-03-01
Series:Barekeng
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Online Access:https://ojs3.unpatti.ac.id/index.php/barekeng/article/view/10010
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author Lisa Lestari
Evy Sulistianingsih
Hendra Perdana
author_facet Lisa Lestari
Evy Sulistianingsih
Hendra Perdana
author_sort Lisa Lestari
collection DOAJ
description Vector Autoregressive (VAR) is a multivariate time series model that analyzes more than one variable where each variable in the model is endogenous. VAR is one of the models used in forecasting rainfall and wind speed. In observations of rainfall and wind speed, there are usually a series of events whose values are far from other observations or can be said to be outliers. The purpose of this study is to compare the VAR model on rainfall and wind speed data before and after outlier detection. This study uses secondary data, namely monthly data on rainfall and wind speed from 2019 to 2021. From the analysis results, the smallest AIC value obtained in the VAR model before outlier detection was 4.94, then the smallest AIC value in the VAR model after outlier detection was 0.25. Thus, it can be concluded that the best model is obtained in the VAR model after outlier detection seen from the smallest AIC value of the two VAR models.
format Article
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institution Kabale University
issn 1978-7227
2615-3017
language English
publishDate 2024-03-01
publisher Universitas Pattimura
record_format Article
series Barekeng
spelling doaj-art-e43be17b785e4af2b20d524c6839f7942025-08-20T04:00:48ZengUniversitas PattimuraBarekeng1978-72272615-30172024-03-011810117012810.30598/barekengvol18iss1pp0117-012810010VECTOR AUTOREGRESSIVE WITH OUTLIER DETECTION ON RAINFALL AND WIND SPEED DATALisa Lestari0Evy Sulistianingsih1Hendra Perdana2Statistic Study Program, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Tanjungpura University, IndonesiaStatistic Study Program, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Tanjungpura University, IndonesiaStatistic Study Program, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Tanjungpura University, IndonesiaVector Autoregressive (VAR) is a multivariate time series model that analyzes more than one variable where each variable in the model is endogenous. VAR is one of the models used in forecasting rainfall and wind speed. In observations of rainfall and wind speed, there are usually a series of events whose values are far from other observations or can be said to be outliers. The purpose of this study is to compare the VAR model on rainfall and wind speed data before and after outlier detection. This study uses secondary data, namely monthly data on rainfall and wind speed from 2019 to 2021. From the analysis results, the smallest AIC value obtained in the VAR model before outlier detection was 4.94, then the smallest AIC value in the VAR model after outlier detection was 0.25. Thus, it can be concluded that the best model is obtained in the VAR model after outlier detection seen from the smallest AIC value of the two VAR models.https://ojs3.unpatti.ac.id/index.php/barekeng/article/view/10010varoutliersrainfallwind speed
spellingShingle Lisa Lestari
Evy Sulistianingsih
Hendra Perdana
VECTOR AUTOREGRESSIVE WITH OUTLIER DETECTION ON RAINFALL AND WIND SPEED DATA
Barekeng
var
outliers
rainfall
wind speed
title VECTOR AUTOREGRESSIVE WITH OUTLIER DETECTION ON RAINFALL AND WIND SPEED DATA
title_full VECTOR AUTOREGRESSIVE WITH OUTLIER DETECTION ON RAINFALL AND WIND SPEED DATA
title_fullStr VECTOR AUTOREGRESSIVE WITH OUTLIER DETECTION ON RAINFALL AND WIND SPEED DATA
title_full_unstemmed VECTOR AUTOREGRESSIVE WITH OUTLIER DETECTION ON RAINFALL AND WIND SPEED DATA
title_short VECTOR AUTOREGRESSIVE WITH OUTLIER DETECTION ON RAINFALL AND WIND SPEED DATA
title_sort vector autoregressive with outlier detection on rainfall and wind speed data
topic var
outliers
rainfall
wind speed
url https://ojs3.unpatti.ac.id/index.php/barekeng/article/view/10010
work_keys_str_mv AT lisalestari vectorautoregressivewithoutlierdetectiononrainfallandwindspeeddata
AT evysulistianingsih vectorautoregressivewithoutlierdetectiononrainfallandwindspeeddata
AT hendraperdana vectorautoregressivewithoutlierdetectiononrainfallandwindspeeddata