An Inquiry into Model Validity When Addressing Complex Sustainability Challenges
Scientific modelling is a prime means to generate understanding and provide much-needed information to support public decision-making in the fluid area of sustainability. A growing, diverse sustainability modelling literature, however, does not readily lend itself to standard validation procedures,...
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| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2022-01-01
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| Series: | Complexity |
| Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2022/1193891 |
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| author | Şerban Scrieciu Liz Varga Nici Zimmermann Zaid Chalabi Rachel Freeman Tom Dolan Dmitry E. Borisoglebsky Mike Davies |
| author_facet | Şerban Scrieciu Liz Varga Nici Zimmermann Zaid Chalabi Rachel Freeman Tom Dolan Dmitry E. Borisoglebsky Mike Davies |
| author_sort | Şerban Scrieciu |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Scientific modelling is a prime means to generate understanding and provide much-needed information to support public decision-making in the fluid area of sustainability. A growing, diverse sustainability modelling literature, however, does not readily lend itself to standard validation procedures, which are typically rooted in the positivist principles of empirical verification and predictive success. Yet, to be useful to decision-makers, models, including their outputs and the processes through which they are established must be, and must be seen to be “valid.” This study explores what model validity means in a problem space with increasingly interlinked and fast-moving challenges. We examine validation perspectives through ontological, epistemic, and methodological lenses, for a range of modelling approaches that can be considered as “complexity-compatible.” The worldview taken in complexity-compatible modelling departs from the more standard modelling assumptions of complete objectivity and full predictability. Drawing on different insights from complexity science, systems thinking, economics, and mathematics, we suggest a ten-dimensional framework for progressing on model validity when investigating sustainability concerns. As such, we develop a widened view of the meaning of model validity for sustainability. It includes (i) acknowledging that several facets of validation are critical for the successful modelling of the sustainability of complex systems; (ii) tackling the thorny issues of uncertainty, subjectivity, and unpredictability; (iii) exploring the realism of model assumptions and mechanisms; (iv) embracing the role of stakeholder engagement and scrutiny throughout the modelling process; and (v) considering model purpose when assessing model validity. We wish to widen the debate on the meaning of model validity in a constructive way. We conclude that consideration of all these elements is necessary to enable sustainability models to support, more effectively, decision-making for complex interdependent systems. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-e418fae66a66462888dbfe515d327e88 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1099-0526 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2022-01-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Complexity |
| spelling | doaj-art-e418fae66a66462888dbfe515d327e882025-08-20T03:26:33ZengWileyComplexity1099-05262022-01-01202210.1155/2022/1193891An Inquiry into Model Validity When Addressing Complex Sustainability ChallengesŞerban Scrieciu0Liz Varga1Nici Zimmermann2Zaid Chalabi3Rachel Freeman4Tom Dolan5Dmitry E. Borisoglebsky6Mike Davies7Institute for Environmental Design and EngineeringInfrastructure Systems InstituteInstitute for Environmental Design and EngineeringInstitute for Environmental Design and EngineeringEnergy InstituteInfrastructure Systems InstituteInfrastructure Systems InstituteInstitute for Environmental Design and EngineeringScientific modelling is a prime means to generate understanding and provide much-needed information to support public decision-making in the fluid area of sustainability. A growing, diverse sustainability modelling literature, however, does not readily lend itself to standard validation procedures, which are typically rooted in the positivist principles of empirical verification and predictive success. Yet, to be useful to decision-makers, models, including their outputs and the processes through which they are established must be, and must be seen to be “valid.” This study explores what model validity means in a problem space with increasingly interlinked and fast-moving challenges. We examine validation perspectives through ontological, epistemic, and methodological lenses, for a range of modelling approaches that can be considered as “complexity-compatible.” The worldview taken in complexity-compatible modelling departs from the more standard modelling assumptions of complete objectivity and full predictability. Drawing on different insights from complexity science, systems thinking, economics, and mathematics, we suggest a ten-dimensional framework for progressing on model validity when investigating sustainability concerns. As such, we develop a widened view of the meaning of model validity for sustainability. It includes (i) acknowledging that several facets of validation are critical for the successful modelling of the sustainability of complex systems; (ii) tackling the thorny issues of uncertainty, subjectivity, and unpredictability; (iii) exploring the realism of model assumptions and mechanisms; (iv) embracing the role of stakeholder engagement and scrutiny throughout the modelling process; and (v) considering model purpose when assessing model validity. We wish to widen the debate on the meaning of model validity in a constructive way. We conclude that consideration of all these elements is necessary to enable sustainability models to support, more effectively, decision-making for complex interdependent systems.http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2022/1193891 |
| spellingShingle | Şerban Scrieciu Liz Varga Nici Zimmermann Zaid Chalabi Rachel Freeman Tom Dolan Dmitry E. Borisoglebsky Mike Davies An Inquiry into Model Validity When Addressing Complex Sustainability Challenges Complexity |
| title | An Inquiry into Model Validity When Addressing Complex Sustainability Challenges |
| title_full | An Inquiry into Model Validity When Addressing Complex Sustainability Challenges |
| title_fullStr | An Inquiry into Model Validity When Addressing Complex Sustainability Challenges |
| title_full_unstemmed | An Inquiry into Model Validity When Addressing Complex Sustainability Challenges |
| title_short | An Inquiry into Model Validity When Addressing Complex Sustainability Challenges |
| title_sort | inquiry into model validity when addressing complex sustainability challenges |
| url | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2022/1193891 |
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