Forecasting 3D Rupture Dynamics of the Alto Tiberina Low-Angle Normal Fault, Italy
The seismic potential of active low-angle normal faults (LANFs, <30° dip) remains enigmatic under Andersonian faulting theory, which predicts that normal faults dipping less than 30° should be inactive. The Alto Tiberina fault (ATF) in the northern Apennines, a partly creeping 17°-dipping LANF,...
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McGill University
2025-08-01
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| Series: | Seismica |
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| Online Access: | https://seismica.library.mcgill.ca/article/view/1603 |
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| author | Mathilde Marchandon Alice-Agnes Gabriel Lauro Chiaraluce Elisa Tinti Emanuele Casarotti James Biemiller |
| author_facet | Mathilde Marchandon Alice-Agnes Gabriel Lauro Chiaraluce Elisa Tinti Emanuele Casarotti James Biemiller |
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The seismic potential of active low-angle normal faults (LANFs, <30° dip) remains enigmatic under Andersonian faulting theory, which predicts that normal faults dipping less than 30° should be inactive. The Alto Tiberina fault (ATF) in the northern Apennines, a partly creeping 17°-dipping LANF, has not been associated with any historical earthquakes but could potentially generate earthquakes up to Mw~7. We investigate the mechanical preconditions and dynamic plausibility of large ATF earthquakes using 3D dynamic rupture and seismic wave propagation simulations constrained by multidisciplinary data from the Alto Tiberina Near Fault Observatory (TABOO-NFO). Our models incorporate the complex non-planar ATF fault geometry, including hanging wall secondary faults and a recent geodetic coupling model. We show that potential large earthquakes (up to Mw~7.4) are mechanically viable under Andersonian extensional stress conditions if the ATF is statically relatively weak (μs=0.37). Large earthquakes only nucleate on favorably oriented, steeper fault sections (dip ≥30°), and remain confined to the coupled portion, limiting earthquake magnitude. These ruptures may dynamically trigger an intersecting synthetic branch but are unlikely to affect more distant antithetic faults. Jointly integrating fault geometry and geodetic coupling is crucial for forecasting dynamic rupture nucleation and propagation.
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| publishDate | 2025-08-01 |
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| spelling | doaj-art-e4185ec3ed4c446c82cb156d1c10ad662025-08-22T22:27:31ZengMcGill UniversitySeismica2816-93872025-08-014210.26443/seismica.v4i2.1603Forecasting 3D Rupture Dynamics of the Alto Tiberina Low-Angle Normal Fault, ItalyMathilde Marchandon0Alice-Agnes Gabriel1Lauro Chiaraluce2Elisa Tinti3Emanuele Casarotti4James Biemiller5Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Ludwig-Maximillians-Universität München, Munich, GermanyScripps Institution of Oceanography, UC San Diego, La Jolla, USAIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Roma, ItalySapienza University of Rome, Rome, Italy | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Roma, ItalyIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Roma, ItalyGeology, Minerals, Energy and Geophysics Science Center, U.S. Geological Survey, Portland, Oregon, USA The seismic potential of active low-angle normal faults (LANFs, <30° dip) remains enigmatic under Andersonian faulting theory, which predicts that normal faults dipping less than 30° should be inactive. The Alto Tiberina fault (ATF) in the northern Apennines, a partly creeping 17°-dipping LANF, has not been associated with any historical earthquakes but could potentially generate earthquakes up to Mw~7. We investigate the mechanical preconditions and dynamic plausibility of large ATF earthquakes using 3D dynamic rupture and seismic wave propagation simulations constrained by multidisciplinary data from the Alto Tiberina Near Fault Observatory (TABOO-NFO). Our models incorporate the complex non-planar ATF fault geometry, including hanging wall secondary faults and a recent geodetic coupling model. We show that potential large earthquakes (up to Mw~7.4) are mechanically viable under Andersonian extensional stress conditions if the ATF is statically relatively weak (μs=0.37). Large earthquakes only nucleate on favorably oriented, steeper fault sections (dip ≥30°), and remain confined to the coupled portion, limiting earthquake magnitude. These ruptures may dynamically trigger an intersecting synthetic branch but are unlikely to affect more distant antithetic faults. Jointly integrating fault geometry and geodetic coupling is crucial for forecasting dynamic rupture nucleation and propagation. https://seismica.library.mcgill.ca/article/view/1603Low angle normal faultAlto Tiberina faultdynamic rupture simulationearthquake forecasting |
| spellingShingle | Mathilde Marchandon Alice-Agnes Gabriel Lauro Chiaraluce Elisa Tinti Emanuele Casarotti James Biemiller Forecasting 3D Rupture Dynamics of the Alto Tiberina Low-Angle Normal Fault, Italy Seismica Low angle normal fault Alto Tiberina fault dynamic rupture simulation earthquake forecasting |
| title | Forecasting 3D Rupture Dynamics of the Alto Tiberina Low-Angle Normal Fault, Italy |
| title_full | Forecasting 3D Rupture Dynamics of the Alto Tiberina Low-Angle Normal Fault, Italy |
| title_fullStr | Forecasting 3D Rupture Dynamics of the Alto Tiberina Low-Angle Normal Fault, Italy |
| title_full_unstemmed | Forecasting 3D Rupture Dynamics of the Alto Tiberina Low-Angle Normal Fault, Italy |
| title_short | Forecasting 3D Rupture Dynamics of the Alto Tiberina Low-Angle Normal Fault, Italy |
| title_sort | forecasting 3d rupture dynamics of the alto tiberina low angle normal fault italy |
| topic | Low angle normal fault Alto Tiberina fault dynamic rupture simulation earthquake forecasting |
| url | https://seismica.library.mcgill.ca/article/view/1603 |
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