How to define macroeconomic announcement surprises? An example of the impact of US macroeconomic news on stock prices on the Warsaw Stock Exchange
The definition of a news surprise plays a crucial role in the analysis of the impact of unexpected macroeconomic news announcements. In this paper, we study the properties of the most commonly used measure of news surprise, defined as the difference between the announced and expected value of the i...
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AGH UNIVERSITY PRESS
2023-01-01
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| Series: | Managerial Economics |
| Online Access: | https://journals.agh.edu.pl/manage/article/view/5218 |
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| _version_ | 1850054714189676544 |
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| author | Tomasz Wójtowicz |
| author_facet | Tomasz Wójtowicz |
| author_sort | Tomasz Wójtowicz |
| collection | DOAJ |
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The definition of a news surprise plays a crucial role in the analysis of the impact of unexpected macroeconomic news announcements. In this paper, we study the properties of the most commonly used measure of news surprise, defined as the difference between the announced and expected value of the indicator. Due to the high vulnerability of this measure to outliers, we consider alternative definitions of macroeconomic surprises. Based on the analysis of announcements of 15 American macroeconomic indicators, we show that taking into account the heterogeneity of analysts’ forecasts or the variability of the previous surprises, noticeably improves the properties of the distribution of surprise measures. An additional study performed with the use of a dynamic model proves a strong linear relationship between surprise measures and WIG20 returns in the first five minutes after news announcements.
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| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-e3ffd7909fad46f8abdd1961139d2af1 |
| institution | DOAJ |
| issn | 1898-1143 2353-3617 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2023-01-01 |
| publisher | AGH UNIVERSITY PRESS |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Managerial Economics |
| spelling | doaj-art-e3ffd7909fad46f8abdd1961139d2af12025-08-20T02:52:09ZengAGH UNIVERSITY PRESSManagerial Economics1898-11432353-36172023-01-0123110.7494/manage.2022.23.1.77How to define macroeconomic announcement surprises? An example of the impact of US macroeconomic news on stock prices on the Warsaw Stock ExchangeTomasz Wójtowicz0AGH University of Science and Technology in Cracow, Department of Applications of Mathematics in Economics The definition of a news surprise plays a crucial role in the analysis of the impact of unexpected macroeconomic news announcements. In this paper, we study the properties of the most commonly used measure of news surprise, defined as the difference between the announced and expected value of the indicator. Due to the high vulnerability of this measure to outliers, we consider alternative definitions of macroeconomic surprises. Based on the analysis of announcements of 15 American macroeconomic indicators, we show that taking into account the heterogeneity of analysts’ forecasts or the variability of the previous surprises, noticeably improves the properties of the distribution of surprise measures. An additional study performed with the use of a dynamic model proves a strong linear relationship between surprise measures and WIG20 returns in the first five minutes after news announcements. https://journals.agh.edu.pl/manage/article/view/5218 |
| spellingShingle | Tomasz Wójtowicz How to define macroeconomic announcement surprises? An example of the impact of US macroeconomic news on stock prices on the Warsaw Stock Exchange Managerial Economics |
| title | How to define macroeconomic announcement surprises? An example of the impact of US macroeconomic news on stock prices on the Warsaw Stock Exchange |
| title_full | How to define macroeconomic announcement surprises? An example of the impact of US macroeconomic news on stock prices on the Warsaw Stock Exchange |
| title_fullStr | How to define macroeconomic announcement surprises? An example of the impact of US macroeconomic news on stock prices on the Warsaw Stock Exchange |
| title_full_unstemmed | How to define macroeconomic announcement surprises? An example of the impact of US macroeconomic news on stock prices on the Warsaw Stock Exchange |
| title_short | How to define macroeconomic announcement surprises? An example of the impact of US macroeconomic news on stock prices on the Warsaw Stock Exchange |
| title_sort | how to define macroeconomic announcement surprises an example of the impact of us macroeconomic news on stock prices on the warsaw stock exchange |
| url | https://journals.agh.edu.pl/manage/article/view/5218 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT tomaszwojtowicz howtodefinemacroeconomicannouncementsurprisesanexampleoftheimpactofusmacroeconomicnewsonstockpricesonthewarsawstockexchange |