Neighborhood-scale reductions in heatwave burden projected under a 30% minimum tree cover scenario

Abstract Cities pursuing nature-based solutions to mitigate heatwaves need tools to estimate cooling benefits from increased tree canopy cover. This study applied the i-Tree Cool Air model and a heatwave degree day (HWDD) metric to quantify reductions in heatwave severity if neighborhoods in 10 Ital...

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Main Authors: Theodore A. Endreny, Marco Ciolfi, Anna Endreny, Francesca Chiocchini, Carlo Calfapietra
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Nature Portfolio 2025-07-01
Series:npj Urban Sustainability
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1038/s42949-025-00219-7
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author Theodore A. Endreny
Marco Ciolfi
Anna Endreny
Francesca Chiocchini
Carlo Calfapietra
author_facet Theodore A. Endreny
Marco Ciolfi
Anna Endreny
Francesca Chiocchini
Carlo Calfapietra
author_sort Theodore A. Endreny
collection DOAJ
description Abstract Cities pursuing nature-based solutions to mitigate heatwaves need tools to estimate cooling benefits from increased tree canopy cover. This study applied the i-Tree Cool Air model and a heatwave degree day (HWDD) metric to quantify reductions in heatwave severity if neighborhoods in 10 Italian cities achieved the recommended minimum 30% tree cover. The scenario focused on establishing functional urban forests, with additional canopy placed over permeable surfaces to enhance stormwater infiltration and evapotranspiration-based cooling. Despite dry summer conditions, the 30% tree cover scenario reduced HWDD by a median of 34% (range: 16–84%), translating into comparable reductions (median 36%) in heatwave-related mortality for those aged 65 + . The tree cover generated new ecosystem service benefits valued at $10 million per city (range: $2–$62 million) through avoided stormwater runoff, air pollution removal, and carbon sequestration. Results consider drought constraints and potential irrigation trade-offs, including exacerbation of humid heat extremes.
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spelling doaj-art-e3d4367138c24a788b733ecd06cbc7412025-08-20T03:45:35ZengNature Portfolionpj Urban Sustainability2661-80012025-07-015111510.1038/s42949-025-00219-7Neighborhood-scale reductions in heatwave burden projected under a 30% minimum tree cover scenarioTheodore A. Endreny0Marco Ciolfi1Anna Endreny2Francesca Chiocchini3Carlo Calfapietra4Department of Environmental Resources Engineering, State University of New York ESFDepartment of Environmental Resources Engineering, State University of New York ESFNational Research Council, Institute of Research on Terrestrial EcosystemsNational Research Council, Institute of Research on Terrestrial EcosystemsNational Research Council, Institute of Research on Terrestrial EcosystemsAbstract Cities pursuing nature-based solutions to mitigate heatwaves need tools to estimate cooling benefits from increased tree canopy cover. This study applied the i-Tree Cool Air model and a heatwave degree day (HWDD) metric to quantify reductions in heatwave severity if neighborhoods in 10 Italian cities achieved the recommended minimum 30% tree cover. The scenario focused on establishing functional urban forests, with additional canopy placed over permeable surfaces to enhance stormwater infiltration and evapotranspiration-based cooling. Despite dry summer conditions, the 30% tree cover scenario reduced HWDD by a median of 34% (range: 16–84%), translating into comparable reductions (median 36%) in heatwave-related mortality for those aged 65 + . The tree cover generated new ecosystem service benefits valued at $10 million per city (range: $2–$62 million) through avoided stormwater runoff, air pollution removal, and carbon sequestration. Results consider drought constraints and potential irrigation trade-offs, including exacerbation of humid heat extremes.https://doi.org/10.1038/s42949-025-00219-7
spellingShingle Theodore A. Endreny
Marco Ciolfi
Anna Endreny
Francesca Chiocchini
Carlo Calfapietra
Neighborhood-scale reductions in heatwave burden projected under a 30% minimum tree cover scenario
npj Urban Sustainability
title Neighborhood-scale reductions in heatwave burden projected under a 30% minimum tree cover scenario
title_full Neighborhood-scale reductions in heatwave burden projected under a 30% minimum tree cover scenario
title_fullStr Neighborhood-scale reductions in heatwave burden projected under a 30% minimum tree cover scenario
title_full_unstemmed Neighborhood-scale reductions in heatwave burden projected under a 30% minimum tree cover scenario
title_short Neighborhood-scale reductions in heatwave burden projected under a 30% minimum tree cover scenario
title_sort neighborhood scale reductions in heatwave burden projected under a 30 minimum tree cover scenario
url https://doi.org/10.1038/s42949-025-00219-7
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