Use of Survival Analysis for Shell Companies Analyses in a Brazilian State

One of the current problems in tax evasion is the creation of shell companies. Such companies operate in the provision of spurious credits, harming the market and the State. The Tax Authority needs to act as soon as possible to prevent such companies from generating the credit, as well as within the...

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Main Authors: Jonatas Dell Ducas, Rodrigo Colnago Contreras
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: IEEE 2025-01-01
Series:IEEE Access
Subjects:
Online Access:https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/10892105/
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author Jonatas Dell Ducas
Rodrigo Colnago Contreras
author_facet Jonatas Dell Ducas
Rodrigo Colnago Contreras
author_sort Jonatas Dell Ducas
collection DOAJ
description One of the current problems in tax evasion is the creation of shell companies. Such companies operate in the provision of spurious credits, harming the market and the State. The Tax Authority needs to act as soon as possible to prevent such companies from generating the credit, as well as within the constitutional deadline for recovery of the amounts. The present work aims to analyze how the SEFAZ of the State of São Paulo has acted on this issue. Through the use of survival analysis in Python, it is sought to verify how the performance was in the period from 2015 to 2023. The time to detect shell companies as well as the time required for administrative processes are analyzed. First, an analysis is made through Kaplan Meier. Subsequently, using computational tools, the possibility of parameterizing the survival curve is verified. Through Cox regression, it is verified if there are relevant covariates that can be studied. The results are expected to provide subsidies for the development of lines of action within the SEFAZ to minimize the survival time of such companies.
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spelling doaj-art-e3d35e3fea3a470aab7258482350a8692025-08-20T03:15:48ZengIEEEIEEE Access2169-35362025-01-0113359333594510.1109/ACCESS.2025.354371410892105Use of Survival Analysis for Shell Companies Analyses in a Brazilian StateJonatas Dell Ducas0https://orcid.org/0009-0009-4185-1577Rodrigo Colnago Contreras1https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4003-7791Americana Tax Office, SEFAZ/SP, Americana, BrazilInstitute of Mathematical and Computer Sciences, University of São Paulo, São Carlos, BrazilOne of the current problems in tax evasion is the creation of shell companies. Such companies operate in the provision of spurious credits, harming the market and the State. The Tax Authority needs to act as soon as possible to prevent such companies from generating the credit, as well as within the constitutional deadline for recovery of the amounts. The present work aims to analyze how the SEFAZ of the State of São Paulo has acted on this issue. Through the use of survival analysis in Python, it is sought to verify how the performance was in the period from 2015 to 2023. The time to detect shell companies as well as the time required for administrative processes are analyzed. First, an analysis is made through Kaplan Meier. Subsequently, using computational tools, the possibility of parameterizing the survival curve is verified. Through Cox regression, it is verified if there are relevant covariates that can be studied. The results are expected to provide subsidies for the development of lines of action within the SEFAZ to minimize the survival time of such companies.https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/10892105/Survival analysisshell companiescox regressionKaplan-Meier
spellingShingle Jonatas Dell Ducas
Rodrigo Colnago Contreras
Use of Survival Analysis for Shell Companies Analyses in a Brazilian State
IEEE Access
Survival analysis
shell companies
cox regression
Kaplan-Meier
title Use of Survival Analysis for Shell Companies Analyses in a Brazilian State
title_full Use of Survival Analysis for Shell Companies Analyses in a Brazilian State
title_fullStr Use of Survival Analysis for Shell Companies Analyses in a Brazilian State
title_full_unstemmed Use of Survival Analysis for Shell Companies Analyses in a Brazilian State
title_short Use of Survival Analysis for Shell Companies Analyses in a Brazilian State
title_sort use of survival analysis for shell companies analyses in a brazilian state
topic Survival analysis
shell companies
cox regression
Kaplan-Meier
url https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/10892105/
work_keys_str_mv AT jonatasdellducas useofsurvivalanalysisforshellcompaniesanalysesinabrazilianstate
AT rodrigocolnagocontreras useofsurvivalanalysisforshellcompaniesanalysesinabrazilianstate