Unveiling meteorological synergies in the coupling of an abnormal easterly wave and cutoff low in South Africa's February 2023 rainfall
Abstract This study seeks to understand the meteorological mechanisms that caused widespread and heavy rainfall from 6 to 14 February 2023, over southern Mozambique and the eastern and northeastern areas in South Africa, including Limpopo Province, Mpumalanga Province and northern KwaZulu‐Natal, by...
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Wiley
2025-01-01
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| Series: | Meteorological Applications |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1002/met.70027 |
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| author | Farahnaz Fazel‐Rastgar Venkataraman Sivakumar Masoud Rostami Bijan Fallah |
| author_facet | Farahnaz Fazel‐Rastgar Venkataraman Sivakumar Masoud Rostami Bijan Fallah |
| author_sort | Farahnaz Fazel‐Rastgar |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract This study seeks to understand the meteorological mechanisms that caused widespread and heavy rainfall from 6 to 14 February 2023, over southern Mozambique and the eastern and northeastern areas in South Africa, including Limpopo Province, Mpumalanga Province and northern KwaZulu‐Natal, by examining different outputs from reanalysis datasets. The heavy rainfall had a substantial hydrological impact, leading to significant flooding and disruptions. This research revealed that a slow‐moving cutoff low (COL) system remained over the central parts of South Africa, triggering extensive and heavy rainfall mostly over the northeastern and eastern provinces. The outcomes from the reanalysis datasets display the influence of the weather system and the interaction between an initiated westerly wave, which converted into a near‐stationary upper‐air cold core upper air COL system, and the easterly wind wave associated with the South Indian Ocean Convergence Zone (SICZ), bringing significant warm humid air from the Indian Ocean into the study area. This study revealed an abnormal structural pattern in the wind vectors, low‐pressure trough, upper and mid‐tropospheric westerly flows and humidity compared with the long‐term climate normal values over Mozambique and the northeastern and eastern regions of southern Africa. This event is exciting from a meteorological perspective due to its intensity and duration, the involvement of cyclonic activity and its implications for understanding the impacts of climate change on weather patterns in southern Africa. The heavy rainfall had a substantial hydrological impact, leading to significant flooding and disruptions, providing valuable data for improving forecasting models and disaster preparedness strategies and underscoring the importance of enhancing climate resilience in regions prone to extreme weather. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-e3ca9337e7cc465fa3ce036780799087 |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 1350-4827 1469-8080 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-01-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
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| series | Meteorological Applications |
| spelling | doaj-art-e3ca9337e7cc465fa3ce0367807990872025-08-20T02:15:47ZengWileyMeteorological Applications1350-48271469-80802025-01-01321n/an/a10.1002/met.70027Unveiling meteorological synergies in the coupling of an abnormal easterly wave and cutoff low in South Africa's February 2023 rainfallFarahnaz Fazel‐Rastgar0Venkataraman Sivakumar1Masoud Rostami2Bijan Fallah3School of Chemistry and Physics University of KwaZulu Natal Durban South AfricaS.V. Raman Researchers Roadmap Durban South AfricaPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) Member of the Leibniz Association Potsdam GermanyDeutsches Klimarechenzentrum GmbH (DKRZ) Hamburg GermanyAbstract This study seeks to understand the meteorological mechanisms that caused widespread and heavy rainfall from 6 to 14 February 2023, over southern Mozambique and the eastern and northeastern areas in South Africa, including Limpopo Province, Mpumalanga Province and northern KwaZulu‐Natal, by examining different outputs from reanalysis datasets. The heavy rainfall had a substantial hydrological impact, leading to significant flooding and disruptions. This research revealed that a slow‐moving cutoff low (COL) system remained over the central parts of South Africa, triggering extensive and heavy rainfall mostly over the northeastern and eastern provinces. The outcomes from the reanalysis datasets display the influence of the weather system and the interaction between an initiated westerly wave, which converted into a near‐stationary upper‐air cold core upper air COL system, and the easterly wind wave associated with the South Indian Ocean Convergence Zone (SICZ), bringing significant warm humid air from the Indian Ocean into the study area. This study revealed an abnormal structural pattern in the wind vectors, low‐pressure trough, upper and mid‐tropospheric westerly flows and humidity compared with the long‐term climate normal values over Mozambique and the northeastern and eastern regions of southern Africa. This event is exciting from a meteorological perspective due to its intensity and duration, the involvement of cyclonic activity and its implications for understanding the impacts of climate change on weather patterns in southern Africa. The heavy rainfall had a substantial hydrological impact, leading to significant flooding and disruptions, providing valuable data for improving forecasting models and disaster preparedness strategies and underscoring the importance of enhancing climate resilience in regions prone to extreme weather.https://doi.org/10.1002/met.70027COLeasterly wavesheavy rainfallMozambique Channel Troughsoutheastern Africa |
| spellingShingle | Farahnaz Fazel‐Rastgar Venkataraman Sivakumar Masoud Rostami Bijan Fallah Unveiling meteorological synergies in the coupling of an abnormal easterly wave and cutoff low in South Africa's February 2023 rainfall Meteorological Applications COL easterly waves heavy rainfall Mozambique Channel Trough southeastern Africa |
| title | Unveiling meteorological synergies in the coupling of an abnormal easterly wave and cutoff low in South Africa's February 2023 rainfall |
| title_full | Unveiling meteorological synergies in the coupling of an abnormal easterly wave and cutoff low in South Africa's February 2023 rainfall |
| title_fullStr | Unveiling meteorological synergies in the coupling of an abnormal easterly wave and cutoff low in South Africa's February 2023 rainfall |
| title_full_unstemmed | Unveiling meteorological synergies in the coupling of an abnormal easterly wave and cutoff low in South Africa's February 2023 rainfall |
| title_short | Unveiling meteorological synergies in the coupling of an abnormal easterly wave and cutoff low in South Africa's February 2023 rainfall |
| title_sort | unveiling meteorological synergies in the coupling of an abnormal easterly wave and cutoff low in south africa s february 2023 rainfall |
| topic | COL easterly waves heavy rainfall Mozambique Channel Trough southeastern Africa |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1002/met.70027 |
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