Time trends in subarachnoid haemorrhage mortality across the BRICS (Brazil, Russian Federation, India, China and South Africa): an age-period-cohort analysis for the GBD 2021
Objectives Subarachnoid haemorrhage (SAH) is the third most prevalent subtype of stroke, representing a critical and potentially life-threatening cerebrovascular emergency. Given their large populations and diverse healthcare infrastructures, the BRICS (Brazil, Russian Federation, India, China and S...
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BMJ Publishing Group
2025-03-01
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| Series: | BMJ Open |
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| author | Tingting Wang Yuhang Wu Suyan Guo Luying Fan Lizhang Chen |
| author_facet | Tingting Wang Yuhang Wu Suyan Guo Luying Fan Lizhang Chen |
| author_sort | Tingting Wang |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Objectives Subarachnoid haemorrhage (SAH) is the third most prevalent subtype of stroke, representing a critical and potentially life-threatening cerebrovascular emergency. Given their large populations and diverse healthcare infrastructures, the BRICS (Brazil, Russian Federation, India, China and South Africa) nations play a pivotal role in the global SAH landscape. This investigation assesses the mortality trends of SAH in BRICS countries from 1982 to 2021.Design and participants This study uses data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 public dataset to investigate the temporal trends in SAH mortality over four decades globally and within BRICS countries. The age-period-cohort (APC) model was employed to estimate net drift, local drift, age-specific curves and period (cohort) relative risks.Primary outcome measures Mortality.Results From 1982 to 2021, there was a 3.85% increase in global SAH deaths and a 59.46% decrease in age-standardised mortality rates. SAH mortality rates are increasing across various age groups in BRICS countries, except in China and the Russian Federation, where most age groups show increasing trends. The annual net drift in SAH mortality varied from a decrease of 5.62% in China to an increase of 0.31% in the Russian Federation. Countries demonstrated similar age-effect patterns, with risk decreasing as age increased. However, period and cohort effects varied, suggesting different control measures and temporal mortality trends.Conclusions Changing patterns of mortality from SAH in the BRICS countries over the last four decades vary. We suggest using local resources to step up SAH prevention. Healthcare for all ages, especially the vulnerable, should improve to prevent and treat SAH better. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-e3c720915716411583bd6a8f867f0f60 |
| institution | DOAJ |
| issn | 2044-6055 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-03-01 |
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| series | BMJ Open |
| spelling | doaj-art-e3c720915716411583bd6a8f867f0f602025-08-20T02:40:39ZengBMJ Publishing GroupBMJ Open2044-60552025-03-0115310.1136/bmjopen-2024-092000Time trends in subarachnoid haemorrhage mortality across the BRICS (Brazil, Russian Federation, India, China and South Africa): an age-period-cohort analysis for the GBD 2021Tingting Wang0Yuhang Wu1Suyan Guo2Luying Fan3Lizhang Chen4Department of Neurology, Beijing Tiantan Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, ChinaNational Center for Neurological Disorders, Huashan Hospital Fudan University, Shanghai, People`s Republic of ChinaDepartment of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, Central South University, Changsha, Hunan, ChinaDepartment of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, Central South University, Changsha, Hunan, ChinaDepartment of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, Central South University, Changsha, Hunan, ChinaObjectives Subarachnoid haemorrhage (SAH) is the third most prevalent subtype of stroke, representing a critical and potentially life-threatening cerebrovascular emergency. Given their large populations and diverse healthcare infrastructures, the BRICS (Brazil, Russian Federation, India, China and South Africa) nations play a pivotal role in the global SAH landscape. This investigation assesses the mortality trends of SAH in BRICS countries from 1982 to 2021.Design and participants This study uses data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 public dataset to investigate the temporal trends in SAH mortality over four decades globally and within BRICS countries. The age-period-cohort (APC) model was employed to estimate net drift, local drift, age-specific curves and period (cohort) relative risks.Primary outcome measures Mortality.Results From 1982 to 2021, there was a 3.85% increase in global SAH deaths and a 59.46% decrease in age-standardised mortality rates. SAH mortality rates are increasing across various age groups in BRICS countries, except in China and the Russian Federation, where most age groups show increasing trends. The annual net drift in SAH mortality varied from a decrease of 5.62% in China to an increase of 0.31% in the Russian Federation. Countries demonstrated similar age-effect patterns, with risk decreasing as age increased. However, period and cohort effects varied, suggesting different control measures and temporal mortality trends.Conclusions Changing patterns of mortality from SAH in the BRICS countries over the last four decades vary. We suggest using local resources to step up SAH prevention. Healthcare for all ages, especially the vulnerable, should improve to prevent and treat SAH better.https://bmjopen.bmj.com/content/15/3/e092000.full |
| spellingShingle | Tingting Wang Yuhang Wu Suyan Guo Luying Fan Lizhang Chen Time trends in subarachnoid haemorrhage mortality across the BRICS (Brazil, Russian Federation, India, China and South Africa): an age-period-cohort analysis for the GBD 2021 BMJ Open |
| title | Time trends in subarachnoid haemorrhage mortality across the BRICS (Brazil, Russian Federation, India, China and South Africa): an age-period-cohort analysis for the GBD 2021 |
| title_full | Time trends in subarachnoid haemorrhage mortality across the BRICS (Brazil, Russian Federation, India, China and South Africa): an age-period-cohort analysis for the GBD 2021 |
| title_fullStr | Time trends in subarachnoid haemorrhage mortality across the BRICS (Brazil, Russian Federation, India, China and South Africa): an age-period-cohort analysis for the GBD 2021 |
| title_full_unstemmed | Time trends in subarachnoid haemorrhage mortality across the BRICS (Brazil, Russian Federation, India, China and South Africa): an age-period-cohort analysis for the GBD 2021 |
| title_short | Time trends in subarachnoid haemorrhage mortality across the BRICS (Brazil, Russian Federation, India, China and South Africa): an age-period-cohort analysis for the GBD 2021 |
| title_sort | time trends in subarachnoid haemorrhage mortality across the brics brazil russian federation india china and south africa an age period cohort analysis for the gbd 2021 |
| url | https://bmjopen.bmj.com/content/15/3/e092000.full |
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