CMIP5 Climate Models Overestimate Cooling by Volcanic Aerosols
Abstract We compare projections of the observed hemispherical mean surface temperature (HadCRUT4.6.0.0) and the ensemble mean of CMIP5 climate models' simulations on a set of standard regression model forcing variables. We find that the volcanic aerosol regression coefficients of the CMIP5 simu...
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| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2020-02-01
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| Series: | Geophysical Research Letters |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL087047 |
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| author | Petr Chylek Chris Folland James D. Klett Manvendra K. Dubey |
| author_facet | Petr Chylek Chris Folland James D. Klett Manvendra K. Dubey |
| author_sort | Petr Chylek |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract We compare projections of the observed hemispherical mean surface temperature (HadCRUT4.6.0.0) and the ensemble mean of CMIP5 climate models' simulations on a set of standard regression model forcing variables. We find that the volcanic aerosol regression coefficients of the CMIP5 simulations are consistently significantly larger (by 40–49%) than the volcanic aerosol coefficients of the observed temperature. The probability that the observed differences are caused just by chance is much less than 0.01. The overestimate is due to the climate models' response to volcanic aerosol radiative forcing. The largest overestimate occurs in the winter season of each hemisphere. We hypothesize that the models' parameterization of aerosol‐cloud interactions within ice and mixed phase clouds is a likely source of this discrepancy. Furthermore, the models significantly underestimate the effect of solar variability on temperature for both hemispheres. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-e3c5c97dc9a648f8ab441e4e67b97927 |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 0094-8276 1944-8007 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2020-02-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Geophysical Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj-art-e3c5c97dc9a648f8ab441e4e67b979272025-08-20T02:31:27ZengWileyGeophysical Research Letters0094-82761944-80072020-02-01473n/an/a10.1029/2020GL087047CMIP5 Climate Models Overestimate Cooling by Volcanic AerosolsPetr Chylek0Chris Folland1James D. Klett2Manvendra K. Dubey3Earth and Environmental Sciences Los Alamos National Laboratory Los Alamos New MexicoSchool of Environmental Sciences University of East Anglia Norwich UKPAR Associates Las Cruces New MexicoEarth and Environmental Sciences Los Alamos National Laboratory Los Alamos New MexicoAbstract We compare projections of the observed hemispherical mean surface temperature (HadCRUT4.6.0.0) and the ensemble mean of CMIP5 climate models' simulations on a set of standard regression model forcing variables. We find that the volcanic aerosol regression coefficients of the CMIP5 simulations are consistently significantly larger (by 40–49%) than the volcanic aerosol coefficients of the observed temperature. The probability that the observed differences are caused just by chance is much less than 0.01. The overestimate is due to the climate models' response to volcanic aerosol radiative forcing. The largest overestimate occurs in the winter season of each hemisphere. We hypothesize that the models' parameterization of aerosol‐cloud interactions within ice and mixed phase clouds is a likely source of this discrepancy. Furthermore, the models significantly underestimate the effect of solar variability on temperature for both hemispheres.https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL087047climate modelsvolcanic aerosolsregression analysisAMOpredictorsradiative forcing |
| spellingShingle | Petr Chylek Chris Folland James D. Klett Manvendra K. Dubey CMIP5 Climate Models Overestimate Cooling by Volcanic Aerosols Geophysical Research Letters climate models volcanic aerosols regression analysis AMO predictors radiative forcing |
| title | CMIP5 Climate Models Overestimate Cooling by Volcanic Aerosols |
| title_full | CMIP5 Climate Models Overestimate Cooling by Volcanic Aerosols |
| title_fullStr | CMIP5 Climate Models Overestimate Cooling by Volcanic Aerosols |
| title_full_unstemmed | CMIP5 Climate Models Overestimate Cooling by Volcanic Aerosols |
| title_short | CMIP5 Climate Models Overestimate Cooling by Volcanic Aerosols |
| title_sort | cmip5 climate models overestimate cooling by volcanic aerosols |
| topic | climate models volcanic aerosols regression analysis AMO predictors radiative forcing |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL087047 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT petrchylek cmip5climatemodelsoverestimatecoolingbyvolcanicaerosols AT chrisfolland cmip5climatemodelsoverestimatecoolingbyvolcanicaerosols AT jamesdklett cmip5climatemodelsoverestimatecoolingbyvolcanicaerosols AT manvendrakdubey cmip5climatemodelsoverestimatecoolingbyvolcanicaerosols |