Exposure to Large Landslides in Cities Outpaces Urban Growth

Abstract The world's rapidly growing urban population is forcing cities to expand into steeper terrain, increasing the risk of landslides. However, systemic assessments of urban landslide exposure are limited. Across 129 cities and their surrounding commuting areas, we identify 1,085 large (>...

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Main Authors: Joaquin V. Ferrer, Cassiano Bastos Moroz, Selin Yüksel, Olivier Dewitte, Karen Lebek, Norbert Marwan, Jürgen Kurths, Oliver Korup
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Wiley 2025-08-01
Series:Geophysical Research Letters
Subjects:
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1029/2025GL115170
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author Joaquin V. Ferrer
Cassiano Bastos Moroz
Selin Yüksel
Olivier Dewitte
Karen Lebek
Norbert Marwan
Jürgen Kurths
Oliver Korup
author_facet Joaquin V. Ferrer
Cassiano Bastos Moroz
Selin Yüksel
Olivier Dewitte
Karen Lebek
Norbert Marwan
Jürgen Kurths
Oliver Korup
author_sort Joaquin V. Ferrer
collection DOAJ
description Abstract The world's rapidly growing urban population is forcing cities to expand into steeper terrain, increasing the risk of landslides. However, systemic assessments of urban landslide exposure are limited. Across 129 cities and their surrounding commuting areas, we identify 1,085 large (>0.1 km2) landslides that are currently inhabited. Between 1985 and 2015, built‐up areas on these landslides have doubled, exceeding the overall urban growth rate. We estimate that at least half a million people are living on landslides and have expanded their total built‐up area by 12%, on average, over 30 years. Population trends in adjacent mountain regions increased landslide exposure, with 10% of cities showing disproportionately high exposure. Our study reveals that landslide exposure in mountainous areas around cities grew faster than in commuting areas, regardless of national income. Further model refinements with high‐resolution land use data and socio‐economic predictors can help quantify the impact of urban zoning policies on global landslide exposure.
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institution Kabale University
issn 0094-8276
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language English
publishDate 2025-08-01
publisher Wiley
record_format Article
series Geophysical Research Letters
spelling doaj-art-e3b8db6a61b74fe2ae8f70b7ae08430a2025-08-20T03:41:54ZengWileyGeophysical Research Letters0094-82761944-80072025-08-015215n/an/a10.1029/2025GL115170Exposure to Large Landslides in Cities Outpaces Urban GrowthJoaquin V. Ferrer0Cassiano Bastos Moroz1Selin Yüksel2Olivier Dewitte3Karen Lebek4Norbert Marwan5Jürgen Kurths6Oliver Korup7Institute of Environmental Sciences and Geography University of Potsdam Potsdam‐Golm GermanyInstitute of Environmental Sciences and Geography University of Potsdam Potsdam‐Golm GermanyInstitute of Environmental Sciences and Geography University of Potsdam Potsdam‐Golm GermanyDepartment of Earth Sciences Royal Museum for Central Africa Tervuren BelgiumInstitute of Environmental Sciences and Geography University of Potsdam Potsdam‐Golm GermanyPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) Member of the Leibniz Association Potsdam GermanyPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) Member of the Leibniz Association Potsdam GermanyInstitute of Environmental Sciences and Geography University of Potsdam Potsdam‐Golm GermanyAbstract The world's rapidly growing urban population is forcing cities to expand into steeper terrain, increasing the risk of landslides. However, systemic assessments of urban landslide exposure are limited. Across 129 cities and their surrounding commuting areas, we identify 1,085 large (>0.1 km2) landslides that are currently inhabited. Between 1985 and 2015, built‐up areas on these landslides have doubled, exceeding the overall urban growth rate. We estimate that at least half a million people are living on landslides and have expanded their total built‐up area by 12%, on average, over 30 years. Population trends in adjacent mountain regions increased landslide exposure, with 10% of cities showing disproportionately high exposure. Our study reveals that landslide exposure in mountainous areas around cities grew faster than in commuting areas, regardless of national income. Further model refinements with high‐resolution land use data and socio‐economic predictors can help quantify the impact of urban zoning policies on global landslide exposure.https://doi.org/10.1029/2025GL115170landslide riskcitiespopulation growthurban disastersurban planningurban turn
spellingShingle Joaquin V. Ferrer
Cassiano Bastos Moroz
Selin Yüksel
Olivier Dewitte
Karen Lebek
Norbert Marwan
Jürgen Kurths
Oliver Korup
Exposure to Large Landslides in Cities Outpaces Urban Growth
Geophysical Research Letters
landslide risk
cities
population growth
urban disasters
urban planning
urban turn
title Exposure to Large Landslides in Cities Outpaces Urban Growth
title_full Exposure to Large Landslides in Cities Outpaces Urban Growth
title_fullStr Exposure to Large Landslides in Cities Outpaces Urban Growth
title_full_unstemmed Exposure to Large Landslides in Cities Outpaces Urban Growth
title_short Exposure to Large Landslides in Cities Outpaces Urban Growth
title_sort exposure to large landslides in cities outpaces urban growth
topic landslide risk
cities
population growth
urban disasters
urban planning
urban turn
url https://doi.org/10.1029/2025GL115170
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AT cassianobastosmoroz exposuretolargelandslidesincitiesoutpacesurbangrowth
AT selinyuksel exposuretolargelandslidesincitiesoutpacesurbangrowth
AT olivierdewitte exposuretolargelandslidesincitiesoutpacesurbangrowth
AT karenlebek exposuretolargelandslidesincitiesoutpacesurbangrowth
AT norbertmarwan exposuretolargelandslidesincitiesoutpacesurbangrowth
AT jurgenkurths exposuretolargelandslidesincitiesoutpacesurbangrowth
AT oliverkorup exposuretolargelandslidesincitiesoutpacesurbangrowth