Exposure to Large Landslides in Cities Outpaces Urban Growth
Abstract The world's rapidly growing urban population is forcing cities to expand into steeper terrain, increasing the risk of landslides. However, systemic assessments of urban landslide exposure are limited. Across 129 cities and their surrounding commuting areas, we identify 1,085 large (>...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2025-08-01
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| Series: | Geophysical Research Letters |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2025GL115170 |
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| _version_ | 1849389612459360256 |
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| author | Joaquin V. Ferrer Cassiano Bastos Moroz Selin Yüksel Olivier Dewitte Karen Lebek Norbert Marwan Jürgen Kurths Oliver Korup |
| author_facet | Joaquin V. Ferrer Cassiano Bastos Moroz Selin Yüksel Olivier Dewitte Karen Lebek Norbert Marwan Jürgen Kurths Oliver Korup |
| author_sort | Joaquin V. Ferrer |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract The world's rapidly growing urban population is forcing cities to expand into steeper terrain, increasing the risk of landslides. However, systemic assessments of urban landslide exposure are limited. Across 129 cities and their surrounding commuting areas, we identify 1,085 large (>0.1 km2) landslides that are currently inhabited. Between 1985 and 2015, built‐up areas on these landslides have doubled, exceeding the overall urban growth rate. We estimate that at least half a million people are living on landslides and have expanded their total built‐up area by 12%, on average, over 30 years. Population trends in adjacent mountain regions increased landslide exposure, with 10% of cities showing disproportionately high exposure. Our study reveals that landslide exposure in mountainous areas around cities grew faster than in commuting areas, regardless of national income. Further model refinements with high‐resolution land use data and socio‐economic predictors can help quantify the impact of urban zoning policies on global landslide exposure. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-e3b8db6a61b74fe2ae8f70b7ae08430a |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 0094-8276 1944-8007 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-08-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Geophysical Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj-art-e3b8db6a61b74fe2ae8f70b7ae08430a2025-08-20T03:41:54ZengWileyGeophysical Research Letters0094-82761944-80072025-08-015215n/an/a10.1029/2025GL115170Exposure to Large Landslides in Cities Outpaces Urban GrowthJoaquin V. Ferrer0Cassiano Bastos Moroz1Selin Yüksel2Olivier Dewitte3Karen Lebek4Norbert Marwan5Jürgen Kurths6Oliver Korup7Institute of Environmental Sciences and Geography University of Potsdam Potsdam‐Golm GermanyInstitute of Environmental Sciences and Geography University of Potsdam Potsdam‐Golm GermanyInstitute of Environmental Sciences and Geography University of Potsdam Potsdam‐Golm GermanyDepartment of Earth Sciences Royal Museum for Central Africa Tervuren BelgiumInstitute of Environmental Sciences and Geography University of Potsdam Potsdam‐Golm GermanyPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) Member of the Leibniz Association Potsdam GermanyPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) Member of the Leibniz Association Potsdam GermanyInstitute of Environmental Sciences and Geography University of Potsdam Potsdam‐Golm GermanyAbstract The world's rapidly growing urban population is forcing cities to expand into steeper terrain, increasing the risk of landslides. However, systemic assessments of urban landslide exposure are limited. Across 129 cities and their surrounding commuting areas, we identify 1,085 large (>0.1 km2) landslides that are currently inhabited. Between 1985 and 2015, built‐up areas on these landslides have doubled, exceeding the overall urban growth rate. We estimate that at least half a million people are living on landslides and have expanded their total built‐up area by 12%, on average, over 30 years. Population trends in adjacent mountain regions increased landslide exposure, with 10% of cities showing disproportionately high exposure. Our study reveals that landslide exposure in mountainous areas around cities grew faster than in commuting areas, regardless of national income. Further model refinements with high‐resolution land use data and socio‐economic predictors can help quantify the impact of urban zoning policies on global landslide exposure.https://doi.org/10.1029/2025GL115170landslide riskcitiespopulation growthurban disastersurban planningurban turn |
| spellingShingle | Joaquin V. Ferrer Cassiano Bastos Moroz Selin Yüksel Olivier Dewitte Karen Lebek Norbert Marwan Jürgen Kurths Oliver Korup Exposure to Large Landslides in Cities Outpaces Urban Growth Geophysical Research Letters landslide risk cities population growth urban disasters urban planning urban turn |
| title | Exposure to Large Landslides in Cities Outpaces Urban Growth |
| title_full | Exposure to Large Landslides in Cities Outpaces Urban Growth |
| title_fullStr | Exposure to Large Landslides in Cities Outpaces Urban Growth |
| title_full_unstemmed | Exposure to Large Landslides in Cities Outpaces Urban Growth |
| title_short | Exposure to Large Landslides in Cities Outpaces Urban Growth |
| title_sort | exposure to large landslides in cities outpaces urban growth |
| topic | landslide risk cities population growth urban disasters urban planning urban turn |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1029/2025GL115170 |
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