Response time of global deltas to changes in fluvial sediment supply

Abstract Fluvial sediment supply supports global delta growth, yet the relationship between these two key variables remains difficult to verify for modern river deltas. Part of the complication might be that deltas are slow to adjust to changes in fluvial sediment supply. To test this hypothesis, he...

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Main Authors: Jie Wang, Zhijun Dai, Xuefei Mei, Huan-Feng Duan, Jaap H. Nienhuis
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Nature Portfolio 2025-07-01
Series:Nature Communications
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-60531-9
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author Jie Wang
Zhijun Dai
Xuefei Mei
Huan-Feng Duan
Jaap H. Nienhuis
author_facet Jie Wang
Zhijun Dai
Xuefei Mei
Huan-Feng Duan
Jaap H. Nienhuis
author_sort Jie Wang
collection DOAJ
description Abstract Fluvial sediment supply supports global delta growth, yet the relationship between these two key variables remains difficult to verify for modern river deltas. Part of the complication might be that deltas are slow to adjust to changes in fluvial sediment supply. To test this hypothesis, here we analyze yearly time series of fluvial sediment supply and delta land area changes for 60 major deltas through 1990–2020. Cross-correlations show that, globally averaged, changes in delta growth rate lag 6 years behind fluctuations in fluvial sediment supply. For the 24 deltas with increased sediment supply, the lag time of land change rates was reduced to 1 year; while the 36 deltas supplied with lower fluvial sediment loads lagged by 6 years. High sediment availability in river-dominated deltas leads to a quicker response of delta land area to upstream supply changes, and deltas with stronger tidal dominance have a subdued response with long lag times. Our findings here highlight the high vulnerability of deltas and their ecosystems to changing external drivers.
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institution Kabale University
issn 2041-1723
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spelling doaj-art-e3a424bbb035454695aaa12ad7979fee2025-08-20T04:01:35ZengNature PortfolioNature Communications2041-17232025-07-0116111110.1038/s41467-025-60531-9Response time of global deltas to changes in fluvial sediment supplyJie Wang0Zhijun Dai1Xuefei Mei2Huan-Feng Duan3Jaap H. Nienhuis4State Key Laboratory of Estuarine and Coastal Research, East China Normal UniversityState Key Laboratory of Estuarine and Coastal Research, East China Normal UniversityState Key Laboratory of Estuarine and Coastal Research, East China Normal UniversityDepartment of Civil and Environmental Engineering, The Hong Kong Polytechnic UniversityDepartment of Physical Geography, Faculty of Geosciences, Utrecht UniversityAbstract Fluvial sediment supply supports global delta growth, yet the relationship between these two key variables remains difficult to verify for modern river deltas. Part of the complication might be that deltas are slow to adjust to changes in fluvial sediment supply. To test this hypothesis, here we analyze yearly time series of fluvial sediment supply and delta land area changes for 60 major deltas through 1990–2020. Cross-correlations show that, globally averaged, changes in delta growth rate lag 6 years behind fluctuations in fluvial sediment supply. For the 24 deltas with increased sediment supply, the lag time of land change rates was reduced to 1 year; while the 36 deltas supplied with lower fluvial sediment loads lagged by 6 years. High sediment availability in river-dominated deltas leads to a quicker response of delta land area to upstream supply changes, and deltas with stronger tidal dominance have a subdued response with long lag times. Our findings here highlight the high vulnerability of deltas and their ecosystems to changing external drivers.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-60531-9
spellingShingle Jie Wang
Zhijun Dai
Xuefei Mei
Huan-Feng Duan
Jaap H. Nienhuis
Response time of global deltas to changes in fluvial sediment supply
Nature Communications
title Response time of global deltas to changes in fluvial sediment supply
title_full Response time of global deltas to changes in fluvial sediment supply
title_fullStr Response time of global deltas to changes in fluvial sediment supply
title_full_unstemmed Response time of global deltas to changes in fluvial sediment supply
title_short Response time of global deltas to changes in fluvial sediment supply
title_sort response time of global deltas to changes in fluvial sediment supply
url https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-60531-9
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