Extending Long‐Term Avian Studies Alters Temporal and Climate‐Driven Trend Conclusions
ABSTRACT Long‐term population studies are crucial for understanding the impacts of climate change on biodiversity; however, predictions based on short‐term data may be unreliable. Here, we analyse yearly averages of reproductive parameters (laying date, nestling condition, and female condition) of a...
Saved in:
| Main Authors: | , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Wiley
2025-08-01
|
| Series: | Ecology and Evolution |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.71878 |
| Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
| _version_ | 1849224550577864704 |
|---|---|
| author | Irene Zanandrea Juan Moreno Alejandro Cantarero |
| author_facet | Irene Zanandrea Juan Moreno Alejandro Cantarero |
| author_sort | Irene Zanandrea |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | ABSTRACT Long‐term population studies are crucial for understanding the impacts of climate change on biodiversity; however, predictions based on short‐term data may be unreliable. Here, we analyse yearly averages of reproductive parameters (laying date, nestling condition, and female condition) of a Pied Flycatcher (Ficedula hypoleuca) population in central Spain across one, two, and three decades of study to evaluate how study duration affects conclusions about population trends. Our findings reveal that initial trends deduced from studies of shorter duration often weaken, invert, or disappear when extended durations are included. For example, advancements in laying dates only become apparent after more than two decades, while trends in nestling and female condition vanish over time. Additionally, we observed unexpected responses, such as delays in laying during exceptionally hot prelaying periods. These results emphasize the necessity of long‐term studies spanning multiple generations to accurately assess the impacts of climate change and inform effective conservation strategies. Our work underscores the risks of relying on short‐term data to predict long‐term ecological trends. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-e327545e1c9548c68677ab5142034d5b |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2045-7758 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-08-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Ecology and Evolution |
| spelling | doaj-art-e327545e1c9548c68677ab5142034d5b2025-08-25T08:17:28ZengWileyEcology and Evolution2045-77582025-08-01158n/an/a10.1002/ece3.71878Extending Long‐Term Avian Studies Alters Temporal and Climate‐Driven Trend ConclusionsIrene Zanandrea0Juan Moreno1Alejandro Cantarero2Natural History Museum University of Oslo Oslo NorwayDepartment of Evolutionary Ecology National Museum of Natural Sciences, CSIC Madrid SpainDepartment of Physiology, Veterinary School Complutense University of Madrid Madrid SpainABSTRACT Long‐term population studies are crucial for understanding the impacts of climate change on biodiversity; however, predictions based on short‐term data may be unreliable. Here, we analyse yearly averages of reproductive parameters (laying date, nestling condition, and female condition) of a Pied Flycatcher (Ficedula hypoleuca) population in central Spain across one, two, and three decades of study to evaluate how study duration affects conclusions about population trends. Our findings reveal that initial trends deduced from studies of shorter duration often weaken, invert, or disappear when extended durations are included. For example, advancements in laying dates only become apparent after more than two decades, while trends in nestling and female condition vanish over time. Additionally, we observed unexpected responses, such as delays in laying during exceptionally hot prelaying periods. These results emphasize the necessity of long‐term studies spanning multiple generations to accurately assess the impacts of climate change and inform effective conservation strategies. Our work underscores the risks of relying on short‐term data to predict long‐term ecological trends.https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.71878climate changeconservation strategieslong‐term effectslong‐term population studiespied flycatcherreproduction |
| spellingShingle | Irene Zanandrea Juan Moreno Alejandro Cantarero Extending Long‐Term Avian Studies Alters Temporal and Climate‐Driven Trend Conclusions Ecology and Evolution climate change conservation strategies long‐term effects long‐term population studies pied flycatcher reproduction |
| title | Extending Long‐Term Avian Studies Alters Temporal and Climate‐Driven Trend Conclusions |
| title_full | Extending Long‐Term Avian Studies Alters Temporal and Climate‐Driven Trend Conclusions |
| title_fullStr | Extending Long‐Term Avian Studies Alters Temporal and Climate‐Driven Trend Conclusions |
| title_full_unstemmed | Extending Long‐Term Avian Studies Alters Temporal and Climate‐Driven Trend Conclusions |
| title_short | Extending Long‐Term Avian Studies Alters Temporal and Climate‐Driven Trend Conclusions |
| title_sort | extending long term avian studies alters temporal and climate driven trend conclusions |
| topic | climate change conservation strategies long‐term effects long‐term population studies pied flycatcher reproduction |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.71878 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT irenezanandrea extendinglongtermavianstudiesalterstemporalandclimatedriventrendconclusions AT juanmoreno extendinglongtermavianstudiesalterstemporalandclimatedriventrendconclusions AT alejandrocantarero extendinglongtermavianstudiesalterstemporalandclimatedriventrendconclusions |