Using population register data and capture-recapture models to estimate over-coverage in Sweden
Abstract Over-coverage occurs when individuals who reside in a country leave or pass away, and this demographic event is not recorded in population registers, leading to population size overestimation. This problem can have important policy and decision-making consequences. With the increased relian...
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Nature Portfolio
2024-12-01
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| Series: | Scientific Reports |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-82547-9 |
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| author | Bruno Santos Eleonora Mussino Sven Drefahl Eleni Matechou |
| author_facet | Bruno Santos Eleonora Mussino Sven Drefahl Eleni Matechou |
| author_sort | Bruno Santos |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Over-coverage occurs when individuals who reside in a country leave or pass away, and this demographic event is not recorded in population registers, leading to population size overestimation. This problem can have important policy and decision-making consequences. With the increased reliance on incomplete but overlapping official registers for documenting whole populations or subgroups of populations, there is a need for more sophisticated modelling techniques that reliably estimate population size, and hence over-coverage, from such registers. Previous approaches have considered multiple systems estimation (MSE) for monitoring over-coverage, but MSE does not naturally extend to cases where individuals are followed over time. In this paper, motivated by the case study of Sweden, we develop a capture-recapture (CR) modelling framework for population registers that allows us to estimate the population size each year, the probability of presence for each individual in the population, conditional on their records, each year and to quantify the effect of demographic characteristics on the probability of emigration and re-immigration, amongst other parameters. Our results suggest that the CR approach, which accounts for the whole time series for each individual, gives a more realistic estimate of the population size compared to existing, deterministic approaches, especially when considering the subgroup of newly arrived individuals, and that it provides new insights on individual behaviour in terms of migration patterns than existing MSE approaches. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-e31e4a4811ad4609a11a248d753e4abc |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 2045-2322 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-12-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Scientific Reports |
| spelling | doaj-art-e31e4a4811ad4609a11a248d753e4abc2025-08-20T01:57:11ZengNature PortfolioScientific Reports2045-23222024-12-0114111010.1038/s41598-024-82547-9Using population register data and capture-recapture models to estimate over-coverage in SwedenBruno Santos0Eleonora Mussino1Sven Drefahl2Eleni Matechou3CEAUL – Centro de Estatística e Aplicações, Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade de LisboaStockholm University Demography Unit -SUDA, Stockholm UniversityStockholm University Demography Unit -SUDA, Stockholm UniversityUniversity of Kent, School of Mathematics Statistics and Actuarial ScienceAbstract Over-coverage occurs when individuals who reside in a country leave or pass away, and this demographic event is not recorded in population registers, leading to population size overestimation. This problem can have important policy and decision-making consequences. With the increased reliance on incomplete but overlapping official registers for documenting whole populations or subgroups of populations, there is a need for more sophisticated modelling techniques that reliably estimate population size, and hence over-coverage, from such registers. Previous approaches have considered multiple systems estimation (MSE) for monitoring over-coverage, but MSE does not naturally extend to cases where individuals are followed over time. In this paper, motivated by the case study of Sweden, we develop a capture-recapture (CR) modelling framework for population registers that allows us to estimate the population size each year, the probability of presence for each individual in the population, conditional on their records, each year and to quantify the effect of demographic characteristics on the probability of emigration and re-immigration, amongst other parameters. Our results suggest that the CR approach, which accounts for the whole time series for each individual, gives a more realistic estimate of the population size compared to existing, deterministic approaches, especially when considering the subgroup of newly arrived individuals, and that it provides new insights on individual behaviour in terms of migration patterns than existing MSE approaches.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-82547-9Over-coverageCapture-recapture modelsRegister data |
| spellingShingle | Bruno Santos Eleonora Mussino Sven Drefahl Eleni Matechou Using population register data and capture-recapture models to estimate over-coverage in Sweden Scientific Reports Over-coverage Capture-recapture models Register data |
| title | Using population register data and capture-recapture models to estimate over-coverage in Sweden |
| title_full | Using population register data and capture-recapture models to estimate over-coverage in Sweden |
| title_fullStr | Using population register data and capture-recapture models to estimate over-coverage in Sweden |
| title_full_unstemmed | Using population register data and capture-recapture models to estimate over-coverage in Sweden |
| title_short | Using population register data and capture-recapture models to estimate over-coverage in Sweden |
| title_sort | using population register data and capture recapture models to estimate over coverage in sweden |
| topic | Over-coverage Capture-recapture models Register data |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-82547-9 |
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