A mathematical model for distributed waning of vaccine-derived immunity: Characterizing dynamical impact on measles elimination
The worldwide resurgence of measles outbreaks, particularly in western nations, has become a serious global health concern. Often, it fails to meet the regional measles elimination goals proposed by the World Health Organization (WHO). Several clinical studies pointed out that antibodies induced by...
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Elsevier
2024-12-01
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| Series: | Franklin Open |
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| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S277318632400104X |
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| author | Aniruddha Deka Tumpa Mahato Samit Bhattacharyya |
| author_facet | Aniruddha Deka Tumpa Mahato Samit Bhattacharyya |
| author_sort | Aniruddha Deka |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The worldwide resurgence of measles outbreaks, particularly in western nations, has become a serious global health concern. Often, it fails to meet the regional measles elimination goals proposed by the World Health Organization (WHO). Several clinical studies pointed out that antibodies induced by the Measles–Mumps–Rubella vaccine wane over time, resulting in drops in the Herd-Immunity level despite maintaining high vaccine coverage in the population. To portray this nonlinear interaction between the waning of vaccine-induced immunity and disease transmission, we develop a measles model with a distributed delay that takes into account varying immunity periods in the population. We use different probability distributions to characterize distributed delay. Comparing scenarios under different types of distributions, we compute and show how it affects the control reproduction number, indicating when measles elimination is not possible under a simple routine immunization program. We determine critical vaccination coverage for different types of waning distribution. Our work illustrates that a supplementary immunization campaign in addition to routine vaccination is essential to control the outbreak and achieve elimination goals. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-e3055fd291c34a07b0ba16d024cc2f72 |
| institution | DOAJ |
| issn | 2773-1863 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-12-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Franklin Open |
| spelling | doaj-art-e3055fd291c34a07b0ba16d024cc2f722025-08-20T02:52:17ZengElsevierFranklin Open2773-18632024-12-01910017410.1016/j.fraope.2024.100174A mathematical model for distributed waning of vaccine-derived immunity: Characterizing dynamical impact on measles eliminationAniruddha Deka0Tumpa Mahato1Samit Bhattacharyya2Disease Modelling Lab, Department of Mathematics, School of Natural Sciences, Shiv Nadar Institution of Eminence (SNIoE), NH-91, Greater Noida, Uttar Pradesh, 201314, India; Department of Population Health and Pathobiology, North Carolina State University, North Carolina, Raleigh, 27607, USADisease Modelling Lab, Department of Mathematics, School of Natural Sciences, Shiv Nadar Institution of Eminence (SNIoE), NH-91, Greater Noida, Uttar Pradesh, 201314, India; Indian Institute of Science and Research, Dr Homi Bhabha Rd, Pashan, Pune, Maharashtra, 411008, IndiaDisease Modelling Lab, Department of Mathematics, School of Natural Sciences, Shiv Nadar Institution of Eminence (SNIoE), NH-91, Greater Noida, Uttar Pradesh, 201314, India; Corresponding author.The worldwide resurgence of measles outbreaks, particularly in western nations, has become a serious global health concern. Often, it fails to meet the regional measles elimination goals proposed by the World Health Organization (WHO). Several clinical studies pointed out that antibodies induced by the Measles–Mumps–Rubella vaccine wane over time, resulting in drops in the Herd-Immunity level despite maintaining high vaccine coverage in the population. To portray this nonlinear interaction between the waning of vaccine-induced immunity and disease transmission, we develop a measles model with a distributed delay that takes into account varying immunity periods in the population. We use different probability distributions to characterize distributed delay. Comparing scenarios under different types of distributions, we compute and show how it affects the control reproduction number, indicating when measles elimination is not possible under a simple routine immunization program. We determine critical vaccination coverage for different types of waning distribution. Our work illustrates that a supplementary immunization campaign in addition to routine vaccination is essential to control the outbreak and achieve elimination goals.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S277318632400104XDelay modelWaning immunityMeasles eliminationMMR vaccine |
| spellingShingle | Aniruddha Deka Tumpa Mahato Samit Bhattacharyya A mathematical model for distributed waning of vaccine-derived immunity: Characterizing dynamical impact on measles elimination Franklin Open Delay model Waning immunity Measles elimination MMR vaccine |
| title | A mathematical model for distributed waning of vaccine-derived immunity: Characterizing dynamical impact on measles elimination |
| title_full | A mathematical model for distributed waning of vaccine-derived immunity: Characterizing dynamical impact on measles elimination |
| title_fullStr | A mathematical model for distributed waning of vaccine-derived immunity: Characterizing dynamical impact on measles elimination |
| title_full_unstemmed | A mathematical model for distributed waning of vaccine-derived immunity: Characterizing dynamical impact on measles elimination |
| title_short | A mathematical model for distributed waning of vaccine-derived immunity: Characterizing dynamical impact on measles elimination |
| title_sort | mathematical model for distributed waning of vaccine derived immunity characterizing dynamical impact on measles elimination |
| topic | Delay model Waning immunity Measles elimination MMR vaccine |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S277318632400104X |
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