Monitoring and modeling hydrologic conditions in Ukraine for hydropower generation
Study region: The Dnieper and Dniester Rivers of Ukraine. Study focus: The ongoing conflict in Ukraine has caused disruptions to electricity generation, of which hydroelectric sources contribute approximately 9 % to the country’s needs. With the takeover of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant by en...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2025-08-01
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| Series: | Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies |
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| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S221458182500343X |
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| author | Matthew J. McCarthy Jesus D. Gomez-Velez David Hughes Shannon Meade |
| author_facet | Matthew J. McCarthy Jesus D. Gomez-Velez David Hughes Shannon Meade |
| author_sort | Matthew J. McCarthy |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Study region: The Dnieper and Dniester Rivers of Ukraine. Study focus: The ongoing conflict in Ukraine has caused disruptions to electricity generation, of which hydroelectric sources contribute approximately 9 % to the country’s needs. With the takeover of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant by enemy forces, the loss of the Kakhovka hydroelectric dam, and the future impacts of the conflict on electricity generation unclear, it may be valuable for the Ukrainian government to better understand how it could leverage hydroelectric power sources in the near future. Unfortunately, measurements of river discharge throughout Ukraine ceased data collection in the late 1980’s to early 1990’s. To address this data gap, we developed a protocol that combined satellite-based time-series measurements of river width at seven locations throughout Ukraine from 2013 to 2023 with reanalysis data, climate-model predictions, and hydrologic models to both provide a means of monitoring a proxy for near-real-time discharge and also predict near-term (i.e., 2023–2030) hydrologic patterns for the region. New hydrological insights for the region: We ran new algorithms on 144 WorldView-2 and WorldView-3 satellite images to map rivers and extract width, one of which was validated against river gauge data located along the same river but in a neighboring country. Hydrologic models using two climate scenarios found minimal change in annual discharge at all sites, but magnitude and timing of peak discharge showed a moderate trend. The results suggest that hydropower is underutilized in Ukraine. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-e2d813c83a4d4d8ea8806f20be220729 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2214-5818 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-08-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies |
| spelling | doaj-art-e2d813c83a4d4d8ea8806f20be2207292025-08-20T03:31:28ZengElsevierJournal of Hydrology: Regional Studies2214-58182025-08-016010251810.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102518Monitoring and modeling hydrologic conditions in Ukraine for hydropower generationMatthew J. McCarthy0Jesus D. Gomez-Velez1David Hughes2Shannon Meade3Geospatial Science and Human Security Division, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, 1 Bethel Valley Road, Oak Ridge, TN 37830, USA; Corresponding authors.Environmental Science Division & Climate Change Science Institute, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, 1 Bethel Valley Road, Oak Ridge, TN 37830, USA; Corresponding authors.Geospatial Science and Human Security Division, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, 1 Bethel Valley Road, Oak Ridge, TN 37830, USAGeospatial Science and Human Security Division, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, 1 Bethel Valley Road, Oak Ridge, TN 37830, USAStudy region: The Dnieper and Dniester Rivers of Ukraine. Study focus: The ongoing conflict in Ukraine has caused disruptions to electricity generation, of which hydroelectric sources contribute approximately 9 % to the country’s needs. With the takeover of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant by enemy forces, the loss of the Kakhovka hydroelectric dam, and the future impacts of the conflict on electricity generation unclear, it may be valuable for the Ukrainian government to better understand how it could leverage hydroelectric power sources in the near future. Unfortunately, measurements of river discharge throughout Ukraine ceased data collection in the late 1980’s to early 1990’s. To address this data gap, we developed a protocol that combined satellite-based time-series measurements of river width at seven locations throughout Ukraine from 2013 to 2023 with reanalysis data, climate-model predictions, and hydrologic models to both provide a means of monitoring a proxy for near-real-time discharge and also predict near-term (i.e., 2023–2030) hydrologic patterns for the region. New hydrological insights for the region: We ran new algorithms on 144 WorldView-2 and WorldView-3 satellite images to map rivers and extract width, one of which was validated against river gauge data located along the same river but in a neighboring country. Hydrologic models using two climate scenarios found minimal change in annual discharge at all sites, but magnitude and timing of peak discharge showed a moderate trend. The results suggest that hydropower is underutilized in Ukraine.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S221458182500343XDischargeRiverHydroelectricSatelliteWorldView |
| spellingShingle | Matthew J. McCarthy Jesus D. Gomez-Velez David Hughes Shannon Meade Monitoring and modeling hydrologic conditions in Ukraine for hydropower generation Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies Discharge River Hydroelectric Satellite WorldView |
| title | Monitoring and modeling hydrologic conditions in Ukraine for hydropower generation |
| title_full | Monitoring and modeling hydrologic conditions in Ukraine for hydropower generation |
| title_fullStr | Monitoring and modeling hydrologic conditions in Ukraine for hydropower generation |
| title_full_unstemmed | Monitoring and modeling hydrologic conditions in Ukraine for hydropower generation |
| title_short | Monitoring and modeling hydrologic conditions in Ukraine for hydropower generation |
| title_sort | monitoring and modeling hydrologic conditions in ukraine for hydropower generation |
| topic | Discharge River Hydroelectric Satellite WorldView |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S221458182500343X |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT matthewjmccarthy monitoringandmodelinghydrologicconditionsinukraineforhydropowergeneration AT jesusdgomezvelez monitoringandmodelinghydrologicconditionsinukraineforhydropowergeneration AT davidhughes monitoringandmodelinghydrologicconditionsinukraineforhydropowergeneration AT shannonmeade monitoringandmodelinghydrologicconditionsinukraineforhydropowergeneration |