Seasonal Predictability of the Winter North Atlantic Oscillation From a Jet Stream Perspective
Abstract The winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) has varied on interannual and decadal timescales over the last century, associated with variations in the speed and latitude of the eddy‐driven jet stream. This paper uses hindcasts from two operational seasonal forecast systems (the European Cent...
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| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2019-08-01
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| Series: | Geophysical Research Letters |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL084402 |
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| author | Tess Parker Tim Woollings Antje Weisheimer Chris O'Reilly Laura Baker Len Shaffrey |
| author_facet | Tess Parker Tim Woollings Antje Weisheimer Chris O'Reilly Laura Baker Len Shaffrey |
| author_sort | Tess Parker |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract The winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) has varied on interannual and decadal timescales over the last century, associated with variations in the speed and latitude of the eddy‐driven jet stream. This paper uses hindcasts from two operational seasonal forecast systems (the European Centre for Medium‐range Weather Forecasts's seasonal forecast system, and the U.K. Met Office global seasonal forecast system) and a century‐long atmosphere‐only experiment (using the European Centre for Medium‐range Weather Forecasts's Integrated Forecasting System model) to relate seasonal prediction skill in the NAO to these aspects of jet variability. This shows that the NAO skill realized so far arises from interannual variations in the jet, largely associated with its latitude rather than speed. There likely remains further potential for predictability on longer, decadal timescales. In the small sample of models analyzed here, improved representation of the structure of jet variability does not translate to enhanced seasonal forecast skill. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-e2c2125826ce48088b95bfe67cffb2a7 |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 0094-8276 1944-8007 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2019-08-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Geophysical Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj-art-e2c2125826ce48088b95bfe67cffb2a72025-08-20T02:24:35ZengWileyGeophysical Research Letters0094-82761944-80072019-08-014616101591016710.1029/2019GL084402Seasonal Predictability of the Winter North Atlantic Oscillation From a Jet Stream PerspectiveTess Parker0Tim Woollings1Antje Weisheimer2Chris O'Reilly3Laura Baker4Len Shaffrey5Department of Physics University of Oxford Oxford UKDepartment of Physics University of Oxford Oxford UKDepartment of Physics University of Oxford Oxford UKDepartment of Physics University of Oxford Oxford UKNational Centre for Atmospheric Science University of Reading Reading UKNational Centre for Atmospheric Science University of Reading Reading UKAbstract The winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) has varied on interannual and decadal timescales over the last century, associated with variations in the speed and latitude of the eddy‐driven jet stream. This paper uses hindcasts from two operational seasonal forecast systems (the European Centre for Medium‐range Weather Forecasts's seasonal forecast system, and the U.K. Met Office global seasonal forecast system) and a century‐long atmosphere‐only experiment (using the European Centre for Medium‐range Weather Forecasts's Integrated Forecasting System model) to relate seasonal prediction skill in the NAO to these aspects of jet variability. This shows that the NAO skill realized so far arises from interannual variations in the jet, largely associated with its latitude rather than speed. There likely remains further potential for predictability on longer, decadal timescales. In the small sample of models analyzed here, improved representation of the structure of jet variability does not translate to enhanced seasonal forecast skill.https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL084402North Atlantic Oscillationjet streamseasonal forecastingECMWF IFS |
| spellingShingle | Tess Parker Tim Woollings Antje Weisheimer Chris O'Reilly Laura Baker Len Shaffrey Seasonal Predictability of the Winter North Atlantic Oscillation From a Jet Stream Perspective Geophysical Research Letters North Atlantic Oscillation jet stream seasonal forecasting ECMWF IFS |
| title | Seasonal Predictability of the Winter North Atlantic Oscillation From a Jet Stream Perspective |
| title_full | Seasonal Predictability of the Winter North Atlantic Oscillation From a Jet Stream Perspective |
| title_fullStr | Seasonal Predictability of the Winter North Atlantic Oscillation From a Jet Stream Perspective |
| title_full_unstemmed | Seasonal Predictability of the Winter North Atlantic Oscillation From a Jet Stream Perspective |
| title_short | Seasonal Predictability of the Winter North Atlantic Oscillation From a Jet Stream Perspective |
| title_sort | seasonal predictability of the winter north atlantic oscillation from a jet stream perspective |
| topic | North Atlantic Oscillation jet stream seasonal forecasting ECMWF IFS |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL084402 |
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