The Impact of OMNI Data Accuracy on Thermospheric Neutral Density Simulations at Grid Cell Resolutions

Abstract As physics‐based global magnetosphere‐ionosphere‐thermosphere models enter operations for space weather forecasting, it is imperative that the sources of uncertainty in model outputs are thoroughly investigated. Global magnetosphere models rely on a set of input solar wind conditions to dri...

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Main Authors: Espen Fredrick, Yu Hong, Ramon Lopez, Yue Deng
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Wiley 2025-07-01
Series:Space Weather
Subjects:
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1029/2025SW004374
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author Espen Fredrick
Yu Hong
Ramon Lopez
Yue Deng
author_facet Espen Fredrick
Yu Hong
Ramon Lopez
Yue Deng
author_sort Espen Fredrick
collection DOAJ
description Abstract As physics‐based global magnetosphere‐ionosphere‐thermosphere models enter operations for space weather forecasting, it is imperative that the sources of uncertainty in model outputs are thoroughly investigated. Global magnetosphere models rely on a set of input solar wind conditions to drive the model; such inputs are often propagated from upstream in the solar wind where the interplanetary magnetic field and plasma parameters can be constantly monitored. Generally, this data is provided by the OMNI data set, a set of observations of the solar wind typically collected near the L1 Lagrange point and propagated to Earth's bow shock nose. The actual solar wind conditions outside the bow shock may differ from the OMNI data, leading to erroneous model inputs. Erroneous model inputs will lead to erroneous model outputs, and contribute to poor predictions of space weather phenomena. We present a study on the effects of variability in OMNI solar wind propagation accuracy on ionosphere‐thermosphere model outputs at the individual grid cell level. Models are driven with OMNI and ARTEMIS (Acceleration, Reconnection, Turbulence & Electrodynamics of the Moon's Interaction with the Sun) solar wind time series for three events at varying levels of correlation between both inputs (Pearson Correlation Coefficient = 0.95, 0.82, and 0.58). Thermospheric neutral densities at three heights (200, 400, and 600 km) are compared for each simulation at grid cells over Kennedy Space Center, Florida, USA, and College Magnetometer Station, Alaska, USA.
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spelling doaj-art-e2b3bfbf8146424eb21b846cfa59c0062025-08-20T03:09:16ZengWileySpace Weather1542-73902025-07-01237n/an/a10.1029/2025SW004374The Impact of OMNI Data Accuracy on Thermospheric Neutral Density Simulations at Grid Cell ResolutionsEspen Fredrick0Yu Hong1Ramon Lopez2Yue Deng3University of Texas at Arlington Arlington TX USAUniversity of Texas at Arlington Arlington TX USAUniversity of Texas at Arlington Arlington TX USAUniversity of Texas at Arlington Arlington TX USAAbstract As physics‐based global magnetosphere‐ionosphere‐thermosphere models enter operations for space weather forecasting, it is imperative that the sources of uncertainty in model outputs are thoroughly investigated. Global magnetosphere models rely on a set of input solar wind conditions to drive the model; such inputs are often propagated from upstream in the solar wind where the interplanetary magnetic field and plasma parameters can be constantly monitored. Generally, this data is provided by the OMNI data set, a set of observations of the solar wind typically collected near the L1 Lagrange point and propagated to Earth's bow shock nose. The actual solar wind conditions outside the bow shock may differ from the OMNI data, leading to erroneous model inputs. Erroneous model inputs will lead to erroneous model outputs, and contribute to poor predictions of space weather phenomena. We present a study on the effects of variability in OMNI solar wind propagation accuracy on ionosphere‐thermosphere model outputs at the individual grid cell level. Models are driven with OMNI and ARTEMIS (Acceleration, Reconnection, Turbulence & Electrodynamics of the Moon's Interaction with the Sun) solar wind time series for three events at varying levels of correlation between both inputs (Pearson Correlation Coefficient = 0.95, 0.82, and 0.58). Thermospheric neutral densities at three heights (200, 400, and 600 km) are compared for each simulation at grid cells over Kennedy Space Center, Florida, USA, and College Magnetometer Station, Alaska, USA.https://doi.org/10.1029/2025SW004374solar windthermospheric neutral densityspace weather forecastinguncertianty analysis
spellingShingle Espen Fredrick
Yu Hong
Ramon Lopez
Yue Deng
The Impact of OMNI Data Accuracy on Thermospheric Neutral Density Simulations at Grid Cell Resolutions
Space Weather
solar wind
thermospheric neutral density
space weather forecasting
uncertianty analysis
title The Impact of OMNI Data Accuracy on Thermospheric Neutral Density Simulations at Grid Cell Resolutions
title_full The Impact of OMNI Data Accuracy on Thermospheric Neutral Density Simulations at Grid Cell Resolutions
title_fullStr The Impact of OMNI Data Accuracy on Thermospheric Neutral Density Simulations at Grid Cell Resolutions
title_full_unstemmed The Impact of OMNI Data Accuracy on Thermospheric Neutral Density Simulations at Grid Cell Resolutions
title_short The Impact of OMNI Data Accuracy on Thermospheric Neutral Density Simulations at Grid Cell Resolutions
title_sort impact of omni data accuracy on thermospheric neutral density simulations at grid cell resolutions
topic solar wind
thermospheric neutral density
space weather forecasting
uncertianty analysis
url https://doi.org/10.1029/2025SW004374
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