Disaggregated money supply and export competitiveness: A causal analysis using Tanzania's sectoral trade data
Background: Export performance is crucial for Tanzania's macroeconomic development. However, the influence of different components of money supply on sectoral export competitiveness remains underexplored. Objectives: and Contributions: This study aims to investigate the short-term and long-term...
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Elsevier
2025-01-01
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| Series: | Social Sciences and Humanities Open |
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| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2590291125005856 |
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| author | Enock Mwakalila Lusekelo Kasongwa Seif Muba |
| author_facet | Enock Mwakalila Lusekelo Kasongwa Seif Muba |
| author_sort | Enock Mwakalila |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Background: Export performance is crucial for Tanzania's macroeconomic development. However, the influence of different components of money supply on sectoral export competitiveness remains underexplored. Objectives: and Contributions: This study aims to investigate the short-term and long-term effects of disaggregated monetary aggregates (M1, M2, M3) on the performance of traditional, mining, and manufacturing exports in Tanzania. It contributes to the literature by offering sector-specific evidence on monetary transmission, a gap in existing macro-financial studies. Methods: Quarterly data from 2003 to 2024 were sourced from the Bank of Tanzania. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach was used to estimate both short-run dynamics and long-run relationships, supported by unit root, cointegration, and diagnostic tests. Results: M1 and M3 exhibit short-run negative associations with traditional exports, possibly reflecting inflationary and liquidity misallocation effects. M2 demonstrates a stronger long-run influence on manufacturing exports. Implications: These findings suggest that the impact of monetary policy differs by sector and aggregate type. Policymakers should adopt a more targeted approach in managing liquidity to avoid unintended distortions in trade performance. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-e20675e3ced945a0b7acc060f59b972b |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2590-2911 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-01-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Social Sciences and Humanities Open |
| spelling | doaj-art-e20675e3ced945a0b7acc060f59b972b2025-08-20T03:45:03ZengElsevierSocial Sciences and Humanities Open2590-29112025-01-011210185710.1016/j.ssaho.2025.101857Disaggregated money supply and export competitiveness: A causal analysis using Tanzania's sectoral trade dataEnock Mwakalila0Lusekelo Kasongwa1Seif Muba2Department of Social Science and Humanities Mzumbe University, Tanzania; Corresponding author.Department of Business Studies, Mzumbe University, TanzaniaDepartment of Business Studies, Mzumbe University, TanzaniaBackground: Export performance is crucial for Tanzania's macroeconomic development. However, the influence of different components of money supply on sectoral export competitiveness remains underexplored. Objectives: and Contributions: This study aims to investigate the short-term and long-term effects of disaggregated monetary aggregates (M1, M2, M3) on the performance of traditional, mining, and manufacturing exports in Tanzania. It contributes to the literature by offering sector-specific evidence on monetary transmission, a gap in existing macro-financial studies. Methods: Quarterly data from 2003 to 2024 were sourced from the Bank of Tanzania. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach was used to estimate both short-run dynamics and long-run relationships, supported by unit root, cointegration, and diagnostic tests. Results: M1 and M3 exhibit short-run negative associations with traditional exports, possibly reflecting inflationary and liquidity misallocation effects. M2 demonstrates a stronger long-run influence on manufacturing exports. Implications: These findings suggest that the impact of monetary policy differs by sector and aggregate type. Policymakers should adopt a more targeted approach in managing liquidity to avoid unintended distortions in trade performance.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2590291125005856Disintegrated money supplySectoral export competitivenessTanzaniaAutoregressive distributed lag |
| spellingShingle | Enock Mwakalila Lusekelo Kasongwa Seif Muba Disaggregated money supply and export competitiveness: A causal analysis using Tanzania's sectoral trade data Social Sciences and Humanities Open Disintegrated money supply Sectoral export competitiveness Tanzania Autoregressive distributed lag |
| title | Disaggregated money supply and export competitiveness: A causal analysis using Tanzania's sectoral trade data |
| title_full | Disaggregated money supply and export competitiveness: A causal analysis using Tanzania's sectoral trade data |
| title_fullStr | Disaggregated money supply and export competitiveness: A causal analysis using Tanzania's sectoral trade data |
| title_full_unstemmed | Disaggregated money supply and export competitiveness: A causal analysis using Tanzania's sectoral trade data |
| title_short | Disaggregated money supply and export competitiveness: A causal analysis using Tanzania's sectoral trade data |
| title_sort | disaggregated money supply and export competitiveness a causal analysis using tanzania s sectoral trade data |
| topic | Disintegrated money supply Sectoral export competitiveness Tanzania Autoregressive distributed lag |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2590291125005856 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT enockmwakalila disaggregatedmoneysupplyandexportcompetitivenessacausalanalysisusingtanzaniassectoraltradedata AT lusekelokasongwa disaggregatedmoneysupplyandexportcompetitivenessacausalanalysisusingtanzaniassectoraltradedata AT seifmuba disaggregatedmoneysupplyandexportcompetitivenessacausalanalysisusingtanzaniassectoraltradedata |