Disaggregated money supply and export competitiveness: A causal analysis using Tanzania's sectoral trade data

Background: Export performance is crucial for Tanzania's macroeconomic development. However, the influence of different components of money supply on sectoral export competitiveness remains underexplored. Objectives: and Contributions: This study aims to investigate the short-term and long-term...

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Main Authors: Enock Mwakalila, Lusekelo Kasongwa, Seif Muba
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Elsevier 2025-01-01
Series:Social Sciences and Humanities Open
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Online Access:http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2590291125005856
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author Enock Mwakalila
Lusekelo Kasongwa
Seif Muba
author_facet Enock Mwakalila
Lusekelo Kasongwa
Seif Muba
author_sort Enock Mwakalila
collection DOAJ
description Background: Export performance is crucial for Tanzania's macroeconomic development. However, the influence of different components of money supply on sectoral export competitiveness remains underexplored. Objectives: and Contributions: This study aims to investigate the short-term and long-term effects of disaggregated monetary aggregates (M1, M2, M3) on the performance of traditional, mining, and manufacturing exports in Tanzania. It contributes to the literature by offering sector-specific evidence on monetary transmission, a gap in existing macro-financial studies. Methods: Quarterly data from 2003 to 2024 were sourced from the Bank of Tanzania. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach was used to estimate both short-run dynamics and long-run relationships, supported by unit root, cointegration, and diagnostic tests. Results: M1 and M3 exhibit short-run negative associations with traditional exports, possibly reflecting inflationary and liquidity misallocation effects. M2 demonstrates a stronger long-run influence on manufacturing exports. Implications: These findings suggest that the impact of monetary policy differs by sector and aggregate type. Policymakers should adopt a more targeted approach in managing liquidity to avoid unintended distortions in trade performance.
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spelling doaj-art-e20675e3ced945a0b7acc060f59b972b2025-08-20T03:45:03ZengElsevierSocial Sciences and Humanities Open2590-29112025-01-011210185710.1016/j.ssaho.2025.101857Disaggregated money supply and export competitiveness: A causal analysis using Tanzania's sectoral trade dataEnock Mwakalila0Lusekelo Kasongwa1Seif Muba2Department of Social Science and Humanities Mzumbe University, Tanzania; Corresponding author.Department of Business Studies, Mzumbe University, TanzaniaDepartment of Business Studies, Mzumbe University, TanzaniaBackground: Export performance is crucial for Tanzania's macroeconomic development. However, the influence of different components of money supply on sectoral export competitiveness remains underexplored. Objectives: and Contributions: This study aims to investigate the short-term and long-term effects of disaggregated monetary aggregates (M1, M2, M3) on the performance of traditional, mining, and manufacturing exports in Tanzania. It contributes to the literature by offering sector-specific evidence on monetary transmission, a gap in existing macro-financial studies. Methods: Quarterly data from 2003 to 2024 were sourced from the Bank of Tanzania. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach was used to estimate both short-run dynamics and long-run relationships, supported by unit root, cointegration, and diagnostic tests. Results: M1 and M3 exhibit short-run negative associations with traditional exports, possibly reflecting inflationary and liquidity misallocation effects. M2 demonstrates a stronger long-run influence on manufacturing exports. Implications: These findings suggest that the impact of monetary policy differs by sector and aggregate type. Policymakers should adopt a more targeted approach in managing liquidity to avoid unintended distortions in trade performance.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2590291125005856Disintegrated money supplySectoral export competitivenessTanzaniaAutoregressive distributed lag
spellingShingle Enock Mwakalila
Lusekelo Kasongwa
Seif Muba
Disaggregated money supply and export competitiveness: A causal analysis using Tanzania's sectoral trade data
Social Sciences and Humanities Open
Disintegrated money supply
Sectoral export competitiveness
Tanzania
Autoregressive distributed lag
title Disaggregated money supply and export competitiveness: A causal analysis using Tanzania's sectoral trade data
title_full Disaggregated money supply and export competitiveness: A causal analysis using Tanzania's sectoral trade data
title_fullStr Disaggregated money supply and export competitiveness: A causal analysis using Tanzania's sectoral trade data
title_full_unstemmed Disaggregated money supply and export competitiveness: A causal analysis using Tanzania's sectoral trade data
title_short Disaggregated money supply and export competitiveness: A causal analysis using Tanzania's sectoral trade data
title_sort disaggregated money supply and export competitiveness a causal analysis using tanzania s sectoral trade data
topic Disintegrated money supply
Sectoral export competitiveness
Tanzania
Autoregressive distributed lag
url http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2590291125005856
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AT lusekelokasongwa disaggregatedmoneysupplyandexportcompetitivenessacausalanalysisusingtanzaniassectoraltradedata
AT seifmuba disaggregatedmoneysupplyandexportcompetitivenessacausalanalysisusingtanzaniassectoraltradedata